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Hi Sotolo
I think the cart got in front of the horse and bolted. The media ran with tales of horror (as they are prone to do when not investigating the private lives of the rich and famous), the pseudo-mathematicians got a chance to grab 5 minutes in the sun and show their modelling skills and predicted 10's of millions of deaths (etc) all of which have been shown now to have been skewed positively (but lets not go there), epidemiologists jumped out of their cave, the politicians over-reacted to the media swill, the economists joined the party, and it all got out of hand. And there there was the appearance of the new Messiah, Bill Gates!
I have been waiting for some proper science to be reported, and turned into real statistics so that we can properly understand what is going on. I have no doubt we are dealing with a very contagious disease, but have doubts about how catastrophically deadly it is. There is a big difference between someone who has died because of Covid, and someone who has died who has Covid, and their are a lot of serious statisitcs not reported, or poorly known, or guessed at ...
Interestingly now we have the media now posting the vaccines in shining armour and white horses, so the world will become more positive..for a while, economies recover, until the virus variant from the souther part of the Mekong delta arises...and away we go again. What happened to the War on Terror, or was it War on Error, LOL
Sorry, perhaps getting a it too cyncial! or an overdose of my medicine!!
best
the Gnome
Zambianminer
First of all you ask mrtibbles to refrain from posting about the EU and then the next minute you put a link on about tariff reductions which would not occur had Britain remained in the EU, and ask for his/her views.
As you are aware, I am new to this board, and a privilege it is not to be asked to f@+K off for my more often than not unworthy views. However, I believe I'm missing something here. Will you allow me into your secret? I say this with a smile and light heart and find it all highly amusing. Thanks for the laughs.
Mr Tibbles https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/04/us-suspends-tariffs-uk-exports-imposed-airbus-boeing-spat/
Any comment?
More one way traffic from MrTibbles on his beloved EU. The country is going to hell in a hand cart. Funny thing is, it has been for years even when we were part of the EU according to MrTibbs. So it begs the question what was the benefit? No more links please MrTibbs.
Excellent stuff GoldGnome at having the audacity to look at the numbers in a historical context and employ a weird phenomenon known as CRITICAL THINKING. Rather than just digest the mainstream fear p*rn spewing from the majority of bedwetting Politicians whose only real concern is how they can out virtue signal each other. Clearly the financial system is totally screwed and has been for some time. You mentioned 2008 in your post as that was last big one, but the Repo market spill in Sept 2019 was the cue for the next one. COVID provided the perfect cover (I'm not getting into the origins or true nature of this thing) for a final binge for those near the money spigot to hoover up as many real assets as possible before this whole thing goes up in flames. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin (most of the supply has been mined already - 18.6M out of 21M - and that which is left mainly use renewable sources or off peak supply that would essentially go to waste) will be the go to Assets in 2021. Bitcoin ROI since 2009 inception.......over 36,000%, but Gold is proven and Silver could go parabolic. There is a place for them all in a robust portfolio.
Hi Afur,
Oh as time goes on you will also come to appreciated that the markets are manipulated without doubt and far from being open , fairly regulated or transparent, although we may succeed at times the house Cartel always win's!
Very funny, mrtibbles. How do you know Italians don't have small ****ers? (How does Boris Johnson know they do?)
Is it your opinion that all markets are fiddled? I'm just curious.
But Johnson also said several times that there would be no customs checks or controls for goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, when he knew there would. He continued telling this lie even after his revised deal with the EU in October 2019 made it clear that such checks and controls would be in force.
After agreeing it, Johnson told parliament: “There will be no checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.” Oborne writes: “This barefaced lie in all its moral squalor remains on the Commons order paper.” At a pre-election press conference in Kent Johnson repeated the lie, and he told Andrew Marr: “No tariffs, no checks.”
As the Daily Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent, Johnson reported that the EU planned to blow up the Berlaymont Building and replace it by “a kilometre high skyscraper topped by a communications mast”. He wrote that the EU wanted to standardise coffin sizes, to ban British pink sausages and prawn ****tail crisps, to standardise condom sizes because Italians had smaller *****es, and much else that was not true.
A Treasury dossier warning of painful short term consequences from a no-deal Brexit was leaked to the Sunday Times when Johnson was saying a no-deal Brexit would be fine. Johnson’s government falsely claimed that it was an old, outdated document which had been deliberately leaked to sabotage the government’s position in talks with the EU.
A Number 10 source said the leaker was former chancellor Philip Hammond. Downing Street falsely claimed to be investigating prominent Remainers Dominic Grieve, Hilary Benn and Oliver Letwin for “their involvement with foreign powers and the funding of their activities”.
In the pandemic, the prime minister falsely claimed to have brought in lockdown in care homes before the general lockdown. The pandemic has also provided several stunning examples of his government handing out contracts to friends and political donors.
Tibbs
Hi Mr Gnome,
Our present government has been so fortunate to have the pandemic to divert the public attention from the true state of the UK and he failed policies and deception of the present administration.
A new book by Peter Oborne chronicles Boris Johnson's history of deceit and how his time in Downing Street has poisoned British political culture.
In an interview with the American television network CBS earlier this month Boris Johnson sought to reassure president Joe Biden that he would do nothing to harm the Good Friday agreement.
Johnson tried to fudge the question of whether he would guarantee to keep the border open, but when cornered by CBS’s Margaret Brennan he said: “We want to make sure that there’s free movement, north-south, free movement east-west, and we guarantee the rights of the people of Northern Ireland, of course.”
The prime minister had better hope that a copy of political commentator Peter Oborne’s new book, The Assault on Truth, does not find its way into the Oval office, for it shows that Boris Johnson’s word means nothing. He lies, and lies, and lies, sometimes because it’s in his interests to deceive, sometimes just out of habit. You can tell when he’s lying – you can see his lips move.
We’re not talking here about the evasions and half-truths that are and have always been part of political life. Oborne’s short, readable, accessible and damning book is a record of a life spent in the shadowy world that natural liars inhabit, where truth is a tradable commodity.
Johnson’s Conservative Party doctored a video of Keir Starmer, then shadow Brexit secretary, to make it look as though Starmer did not know what to say when asked about Labour’s Brexit position. In fact, Starmer answered the question, immediately and fluently.
Johnson visited a hospital and told the doctors he had given up drink, the day after he was photographed drinking whisky in a distillery, and the day before he was photographed drinking beer in a brewery. This gained him nothing. Natural liars often can’t break the habit.
Brexit of course is built upon lies, and Johnson’s were the most egregious. Everyone knows about the NHS’s extra £350 million a week, which even Nigel Farage blanched at – it’s become such a cliché that one forgets how cruel a deception it was.
Cont-
I guess one cannot expect crypto and blockchain tech appreciation among gold gangs...whilst the savvy ones have already added them as a part of their diversified portfolio and/or made 1000%+ return. Tech evolution. Tech revolution. Why not hold both? CEY BB is probably the best BB I've come across btw...very good infos and perspectives shared with an undertone of sarcasm/jabs. I'm guessing most here are 50+
Sorry had to find another link , this should work -
IMPROVING RESILIENCE, INCREASING REVENUE
Avinash Persaud – Intelligence Capital, May 2017
Former banker makes the case for modernising the UK’s current stamp duty on shares which could bring in an extra £4.7bn/year, £23.5bn over the course of a 5 year Parliament.https://www.stampoutpoverty.org/wf_library_post/improving-resilience-increasing-revenue/
Sorry bad link in last post,this should work!
A tax such as this on the City could go towards saving /funding our NHS
https://www.robinhoodtax.org.uk/sites/default/files/Improving%20resilience,%20increasing%20revenue%20-%20May%202017.pdf
Hi MrGnome,
Yes very valid observations and comments from you and also Arfur,
The right wing press has done a good job in diverting the public's attention to thee increased corporation tax and so many people won't give a thought to how the freezing the personal income tax allowance is going to affect them over the years too come.
Yet our government is still against putting a small transaction charge on all at present untaxed or tax exempt financial instruments and methods used by the City , CFD's spread betting, etc , a small transaction charge would not be noticed by those that carry out this type of trading and raise many millions of pounds in revenue every day!
The people bailed out the City in the past, isn't it time for the City to at its debt?
https://www.robinhoodtax.org.uk/sites/default/files/Improving%20resilience,%20increasing%20revenue%20-%20May%202017.pdf
Yes I have written several times to my various MP's the party leaders and chancellors on this,
The NHS has been sold off by the back door and and undergoing privatization by previous Tory governments for decades now, which is why it was almost crippled and couldn't cope properly with the pandemic unless it stopped all routine procedures, some people may never get them done now unless they go private or before they die!
We have a dire shortage of NHS auxiliary/trainee staff staff made worse by leaving the EU and there are 4.5 million people now on waiting lists of up to 4 years for what are regarded as non life threatening conditions, there increased prescription charges for most now £9.25 per item, the dentistry treatments that are still available on the on the NHS have been reduced and the charges increased, just the tip of the iceberg really!
Save the NHS
No, he is a computer scientist, into AI. He worked as a fund manager and knows everything except the price of gold next week.
I'm an economist - but I do have a good sense of humour (most of the time).
Regards
The trouble with Martin, is he is an economist? and we all know what that means?
Yes, Goldgnome, it's still a bit too early in the morning here to even think about it. My colleague can be a sad cow a times (I'm glad she doesn't read this board!).
But, if you really think about, it's an amazing question. You take away the reasons given by those (Martin Armstrong for eg.) for being locked down, which is essentially that the west is doomed economically and our leaders are trying to avoid an uprising blah de blah, and you're left with a straight yes or no option.
If yes, then it has massive implications for future society - social distancing, lock downs on the arrival of the next infection, what does the economy look like... just let you imagination run wild. Is that a society we are prepared to live in?
I'll say one thing (this is a Centamin board after all so apologies to others). In the late 1880s, there was a nasty flu pandemic (Asiatic/Russian). It was very virulent but not a big killer - you can look it up on Wiki. The Spanish flu at the end of WW1 was thought to be a mutation of that (H1N1) and we all know how that ended. The thing is, older people at the time were not really affected so badly by the Spanish flu. It was the young who really suffered. It is thought that those older people who were around during the Asiatic flu had built up some resistance. The thing I fear the most is for the younger people of today not getting that same immunity because of lock down. I know we have vaccines but how effective will they be for any future mutations?
Of course, if your answer to the question is no, then you are a fully paid-up member of the Martin Armstrong Appreciation Society.
Boris Johnson or Martin Armstrong? I feel sick all of a flash!
I am still recovering from your post Arfur. I think the first reaction would be that Boris would complain he was overworked and be asking for a significant payrise, ... and a summer residence in the Lakes District, probably with some french maids (and you know the rest no doubt)
good grief?
best
the Gnome
Gnome you have a strong point as ever and I have been arguing so - have you been reading Sunetra Gupta - but the reply is that if we hadn’t locked down etc, deaths would have been far greater. Sweden is the interesting one tho has now succumbed. I argue that Hong Kong flue in the 60’s killed as many but we can barely remember it as we didn’t shut down so didn’t have any of the health and financial consequences from that. However since then we have become far more concerned about every life which is rather sweet. I think the saddest thing is how people take such entrenched views on either side, just as with Brexit, gold market conspiracy theories, Cey rising or falling, etc, so it is harder to have a reasoned debate. If only Covid had led to more tolerance and more nuanced arguments, but this late stage in the 100 year economic cycle is sadly never a time for that so rather scary.
Hi Goldgnome.
A colleague asked me this question yesterday: Imagine if Britain's economy had low and stable private and public debt, and was at full employment with low inflation and its people were so happy with the way the government was running the country that half the female population pined to have Boris Johnson's babies (what a dreadful thought). Would the government shut down the economy on the arrival of Covid 19?
Thanks for your posts.
very interesting reading Gnome
Well here it is out in the open now. Controversey about Covid Stats, which have been less than illuminating, but will occupy centre stage for medical and psycholgical research for the next centruy, well if we get that far. Here we go...
Here in Australia, this week’s data from the Bureau of Statistics, covering January 1 to November 24, 2020, registers 126,974 deaths, against an average of 127,872 over the past five years (lets not worry about standard deviations and all that science). Interestingly, influenza and pneumonia deaths in that 2020 period numbered 1,952, against the five-year average of 3,097.
Should we attribute that decline to the use of masks and social distancing, as we are encouraged to do, or the heroic positions of the State Pemiers and othe rpoliticians? ; or is it faintly possible the missing 1,000 people who would normally have died of flu and pneumonia are the ones who succumbed to COVID when it first arrived? Did the virus simply tip those teetering on the verge of death into an earlier quarter?
We, of course, cut ourselves off from the world, so perhaps our figures are artificially low. So let’s consider the “nightmare scenario” playing out in Britain.
Last month the UK’s Office of National Statistics added its provisional 2020 figures to a series that goes back almost 200 years. It shows a rate of 1043.5 deaths per 100,000 population, ahead of 2019’s number of 925.
I would describe that rise with the COVID-appropriate word “unprecedented”, except the rate has been higher before, most recently in 2008 (when the unprecedented global financial crisis arrived, raised blood pressures and must have had a tad more than a financial impact?), when I don’t believe the world shut down. Oh yes, and it was higher in every single year before 2008, right back to 1838, when the records begin. Whatever was happening back then?
So if the impact of deaths from COVID (and I think we all know by now we should be saying “with”, not “from”) is not as bad as it first appeared, why are British hospitals reported to be almost overflowing, at or near 90 per cent occupancy? (Mr Tibbles, please leap in?) Unprecedented again, until you note the country’s National Health Service has the entirely reasonable efficiency goal of having fewer than 15 per cent of beds lying vacant at any time.
Or might the fact that in the past 30 years Britain has reduced the number of hospital beds from 300,000 to 140,000, while adding 10 million to its population, shed some light on the situation?
I could go on buts thats enough...
good luck to all
the gnome
British taxpayers are being warned that wartime-levels of borrowing are unsustainable, although workers will be largely spared in a budget that targets big business to help pay for the mammoth spending which has shielded the economy from collapse.
The government will have spent at least £407 billion ($730 billion) on stimulus payments, wage subsidies and other support by the time the coronavirus crisis is hoped to subside next year, pushing borrowing to heights not seen since World War II.
“The amount we’ve borrowed is comparable only with the amount we borrowed during the two World Wars,” Sunak told the House of Commons.
time to get real assets, and dont be caught holding the fiat IOU's or something that goes out when the energy bill appears, or the greenies discover the real cost of bitcoin!
best
the Gnome