Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Hi Dasut,
Moving house is no small task, so it's understandable that you haven't been in touch ,It's good to hear from you again though because I sensed your disappointment in your post just after the RNS regarding the production cut due to instability in the open pit wall.
The RNS must have been disappointing to say the least to all share holders , but I would imagine especially so to you when considering your professional commitment and involvement from the early stages of the Sukari project .

Keep well!

Tibbs

Tibbs I haven't commented as have had too much on as we decided to move house also help grand daughter move into her first home and what with lock down and the issues at Sukari I really lost interest so haven't kept up with the board. Now settled so will get back into the swing starting from the next presentation and hopefully Horgan and his team have got a grip because reading between the lines it looks as though there have been a number of bad practices . I have always thought a good open pit mining contractor would make a difference even if they were employed to undertake special projects. Must admit I never thought they would bring in a contractor to do a major cut back to focus on waste but it makes sense. Anyway now all about the end year result and the way forward hopefully outlining some positive plans because currently everything I am hearing is very vague, and we could do with some good news.

@ 10:27 Good post

http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/jspui/bitstream/10539/25961/2/Research%20Report_831549.pdf
I looked at the above last night with a tired eye and ideally must go through it again. Few papers are available on open pit movement. Palaborwa is the best example known to me although no two events are the same.

The guts of the topic can be found from p.142 onwards.

Hi Tibbs,
Happy New Year to you and yours.
The only true measure of Brexit will be the comparison between British GDP and that of the Euro zone in the coming few years. Only then will we be able to judge whether the decision was the right one. The greatest sadness to me was Merkel not being more acqiescent to Cameron whilst rowing her around the boating lake in his shirt sleeves. Future history will tell.

Regrds

Bob

At 11pm last night the UK finally and officially left the EU’s single market and customs unions, which according to Brexiteers propaganda GDP will soon push through to new highs , the NHS’ first £350m cheque will be popping through the letterbox, huge new manufacturing bases will be spreading through the north of England quicker than the coronavirus and the likes of India, Australia and Canada will be banging on the door demanding to sign up to a new Empire 2.0.!

What will be the reality, because it will certainly affect the POG one way or the other!

Hi Mr Gnome,

Initial Reaction of Kees Dekker Geologist & mining analyst after the RNS announcement of the pit wall weakness
"It reads as if management was greedy in terms of planning too steep wall slopes and/or insufficient expenditure on geotechnical studies in the past."
Article from Seeking Alpha (Journalist Mr Taylor)
https://finanz.dk/centamin-egypt-the-worst-is-likely-over-otcmktsceltf/

Response of Kees Dekker to Seeking Alpha article-
"Mr Taylor may well be correct, but his views do not seem to be informed by having a long term vision of the mine plan.
All is predicated on assuming expedited stripping in the short term will solve all problems in the long run. Maybe, but I do not know whether this is the case.
There have been indications in the past that stripping was well behind what was required in terms of the long term plan.
Then there were indications they had problems with the actual strip ratio versus forecast strip as per guidance for the year, which could be because of difficulties distinguishing between ore and waste based on their resource model."

Kees Dekker did flag up his concerns to Andrew Pardey from 2015/16 onwards but Mr Pardey chose instead to sweep the concerns under the waste pile and carry on compounding the bad practice in order to pump up short term output rather than implementing timely remedial actions to safeguard and increase long term output and avoid the present situation in the open pit.

Tibbs

Thank you Gnome, I look forward to reading it, I have really enjoyed your recommendation of ‘the changing world order’, along similar lines, which suggests gold should be lifting off. So far gold has jus started, though a shame that our mine’s problems obviated the rise in the metal again. On Dec30 2019 we ended at 123.35, now a year later we are 123.75, we have kept our money, while the ftse250 has lost nearly 20%, plus we have continued to get a dividend while so many have been cut, which is great considering how badly our mine has done, more than obviating the gold price rise to heavily reduce profits in a golden year, It has been a huge rollercoaster but it is why I stick with Cey (and Hoc up 18%]. With PM’s one never knows, the most confounding and so interesting market to play, will we have the usual Jan lift off or will the headwinds of rising alternatives remain too strong for a while, and what of winning and finding new resource, clawing back to producing just 10% less ounces and especially reducing costs from the very high 2021 in the following years. I shall be here as it is so exciting if scary, if only our company would finally begin communicating better, as though we owned it, starting with Dasult's hope of strong and positive next report. Happy New Year to all my friends here, even the *****y, may Cey fly and help our dreams which it is so good at inspiring if so far not quite fulfilling, may I be able to build (not a fiction, why should I make it up), may this be the year that we respect each others opinions about the future direction of Centamin and what will influence it, it is this variance that is so provoking useful and informative. Above all may this be the year we finally don our golden flip flops that seemed so tantalisingly on the horizon in Aug before our share price halved again, best wishes to all, Sotolo

Hopefully we will soon recover any cash temporarily stuck by Centamin‘s price fall and maybe even add some profit along the way.

Keep the Cey faith y’al

"We seem to have this idea that you can just print money and throw it at any problem that we have," he said.

We are in danger of really damaging our own children. They will not say of us that we have handed on a country in great order.
"That was part of the message in 1996: the need to end the intergenerational theft when you're winding the debt back. We need to be more productive, we need to build a stronger economy. It will create more jobs, it will lower your tax burden."

— John Anderson, former deputy PM of Australia

Good luck to all the investors and punters in the New Year! Things can only get better?!

For those requiring some light reading "The great imperial hangover" by Samir Puri is and engaging and balanced read
https://www.amazon.com.au/product-reviews/B07ZQTJG68/ref=acr_dp_hist_5?ie=UTF8&filterByStar=five_star&reviewerType=all_reviews#reviews-filter-bar

the gnome

The big factors for slope failure

1. Fault geometries,
2. The lubrication of those faults
3. Slope Steepness/angle
4. Shear strentgth of the rock mass
5. Presence of "expansive clays"
6. Weight of the rock
7. Addition of lubricants (water)

They should have a geotech team 24/7 mapping/measuring and listenting for creaks and shudders. Catstrophic failure can be preceded by pore pressure buildup, micro failures ...ditto for eathquakes...I have not seen any report/s on the failure, any around?

best
the gnome

Daggermal,
We all need to ask more questions, that is how we learn and are able to help and educate others at the same time!
Glad you decided to join in the conversation!

Hi Dasut,
Considering your past professional knowledge of Sukari operations I was hopeful that you would pop in to share your opinion on the production/operational strategies you feel should be put in place.
I am certainly of the opinion that there will be no half measures or compromises on the best strategy forward with Martin Horgan in the driving seat!
It seems the right type of people are now running things on site and the right kit is being brought in to get the job done properly, but in as shorter time frame as possible without cutting any corners .
As you say it will be very interesting to hear what Martin Horgan has to say at the next update, although he must realise the stakes are very high and more shortcomings are no longer an option!
Best wishes to you,
Tibbs

Viable it will be interesting to hear what is said in the next presentation and call in and we shouldn't have long to wait. If Capital are bringing in a sizeable fleet of new Cat trucks, loaders, dozers etc to concentrate on waste removal, will free up the Centamin fleet to concentrate on ore and at a lower grade they need as many units as possible.
I am not sure about the appointment of Capital because I know them as a drilling company not a muck shifting contractor, but at the end of the day it is all about having the right project management team.
When walking a mine to understand efficiencies I always thought it important to look at how the waste was handled not only at the face but also at the dump so it remains to be seen how successful this decision will be.
I do hope that we see a better than expected 4th quarter even if it is only slightly better as we can't afford another shortfall especially against such a pitiful target.
Here is hoping for a far better 2021 with good news regarding a new concession area in Egypt, a timeline and feasibility/bankable document to develop a resource in West Africa.
Above all we need a strong and positive report by Martin Horgan.
Here's wishing all of us Centamin investors a healthy, happy and successful 2021.

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Radar_satellite_service_checks_stability_of_Africa_s_largest_artificial_hole

Thought I would do another check on sketchy subsidence knowledge as it formed part of an investment decision in CEY. Also, perhaps the decline angle at Sukari isn't as bad as some of us fear. Then again we know little of rock composition and porosity.

I agree its best to have the correct facts but it also needs to be kept in mind that so many analysts have based their forward estimates and conclusions on information from those that may well have ulterior motives and that doesn't just apply to Centamin, but in all areas of the market.
Although in Centamins case how many of the analysts do you suppose have actually visited the mine, not many and those that did when Pardey was in charge obviously didn't ask enough of the right questions ,, such as " Why are we up to our ars(e)'s in spoil ?"," Why are the open pit walls so steep?," " What happens if the one and only LHDR tries to self destruct?" "Why is there only a single way in and out of the underground workings?" etc,etc,etc.
But they didn't !
however, there now seems to be a CEO who has grasped the nettle from the outset and is putting things right, this alone is indeed something to be optimistic about!

I am only pointing out wrong figure posted, I am no Jeremiah just like correct facts, rather than unbridled optimism, which do not stop the investment case, in fact strengthen it; . I have explained why I stick with Cey before and why the current price is about fair but could rise

A. It pays almost all its profits as a divi rather than management going on an aggrandising spending spree at shareholders’ expense
B. Long mine life and could be more around
C. Once it gets through next couple of years if all is equal then we should see halcyon days, especially if finds more gold
D. In the meantime I think historically this kind of money printing at the end of the debt cycle leads to inflation, currency debasement and a run to gold. Cey is a rare thing a decent size gold miner quoted on the LSE

So I happily and hopefully hold, loving getting £50k a year, half of it tax free in ISAs and Sipp, where else! Happy New Year to all

Market analyst Paul Mylchreest of ADM Investor Services International Ltd. in London today published a report arguing that for more than two years gold has been pushed down as part of a two-pronged trade boosting the Japanese stock index, a trade hedging its gold short with silver futures. Such a trade, Mylchreest writes, would be both "cynical" and "really clever" even as it created systemic risk. Mylchreet's report is headlined "Long Nikkei/Short Gold -- Profitable, Dangerous, and Missed By Everybody?" and it has been posted at GATA's Internet site here:
http://www.gata.org/files/FulcanelliReport-Mylchreest-Nikkei-Gold.pdf

Intersting article that explains how BOJ drove down the POG
If we cast our minds back to September 2012, we had the announcements of “QE3” by the Fed and the“Enhancement of Monetary Easing” by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The initial reaction of the gold price was positive,which was hardly surprising, although it turned out to be short-lived.
The subsequent collapse in gold has been counterintuitive, especially when the demand for physical gold bullion has remained strong as we show. It has also given the impression that the impact of monetary policies which are “loose”, to a degree which is unprecedented, is benign. It is much too early to reach that conclusion.
Major upward moves in the Nikkei and coincident weakness in the gold price can, in most cases, be closely tied to BoJ policy meetings for the past more than two years. This is especially true when BoJ meetings have included announcements of more aggressive monetary policy in support of “Abenomics.” We cover examples of such price moves which followed BoJ meetings in January 2013, April 2013, October 2013, May 2014, August 2014 and October 2014.
A number of unpleasant ironies are immediately apparent:
? It is helping to drive up equity prices in the country with the most rapidly expanding credit bubble and credit bubbles don’t tend to have happy endings;
? It is simultaneously driving down the price of the ultimate safe-haven asset and thereby silencing price signals relating to market and financial system risk;
? It appears to be a leveraged trade, obtaining the leverage via ultra-low rates in the repo market. The latter is a source of systemic risk which is known to regulators but remains unaddressed; and The logical conclusion is that risk across the world’s financial system is even more under-priced than market participants realise and many believe it is woefully under-priced.
We are in a global credit bubble in which the multi-trillion dollar expansion of central bank balance sheets, their imposition of near zero (or even negative) interest rates and control of entire yield curves (directly or indirectly)are at the cutting edge.
This has encouraged more and more speculation in risk assets which, in many cases, is being enhanced by leverage and without a commensurate sense of heightened risk.
Japan is the “cutting edge of the cutting edge” of this expanding global credit bubble!

Mr Zambianminer,
I can't disagree with anything in your statement, thank you for also making me aware of the Osborne's Black Rock link, amazing when considering what minor offences the employees working in the lower ranks of government get put on a disciplinary for. or even sacked!

Hi Sotolo,
You really are a "Job's Comforter " about Centamin , wonder why considering that you can't stay away from the share?
I think you are splitting hairs for some reason, lets face it even £1. 90 isn't that bad and is quite justifiable even now, but certainly as the true potential of Centamin and Sukari becomes more apparent to those that influence the market to some extent.
You need to go back further though, these were over a pound when the Egyptian revolutions were taking place, at now least the mine is able to share the profit, whilst in the past the profit was paying off the AISC, but that aside, you know reason for the rise in AISC (Pardey crap) , Martin Horgan explained the reasons and also that the AISC rise will be mitigated to some extent by cost savings and increasing production as time goes on
Recently a well informed acquaintance remarked that it was such a pity that Martin Horgan wasn't the Centamin CEO five years ago, because if he had been the share price would now be several times it's present level because for years due to internal indecisiveness and company politics Centamin had been operating with the hand brake fully applied!
All I am able to say is that if Martin Horgan achieves what he hopes to in the ongoing negotiations with EMRA then there is every possibility of some very positive effects on Centamin's future production, which will be good for Egypt, Centamin and share holders alike!
Also it is worth remembering that there are lots of other iron's in the fire at present in other area's outside of Eygpt!
Siko will no doubt be keeping us informed of these important Egyptian developments

Like Mr Bond - All the best to everyone for 2021
Thanks for all the contributions - They have providedcountless hours of fascinating reading, usually accompanied by a cup of coffee. - The LTH's are a hardy-bunch, let's hope their day will come. - Rebess.

Happy New year everyone.
Lets hope 2021 is a better year.

Gold to break $1900 today......it looking good. Then onto $2000 :))

I don’t recall Centamin ever being 200p before this Aug? However it got to 190p in April 2017 when the gold price rose to £1025. Gold is now £1385. However costs inc Capex are £350 higher than 2017 and output is actually lower so the mine is making a bit less profit, and now we only get half the profit as we have the full 50% profit share, so our share price has held up well. It is looking out a year or two hoping that production recovers, costs fall back and gold rises, but it has to be quite a lot to make up for the profit share. I remain a holder with the whopping 6% divi. But comparing now and then is apples and pears

MrT, absolutely agree with you on Osborne. Why he was allowed to get away with this I do not know. Don't forget he was helped along by Nick Clegg and Vince Cable's Lib Dems. Osborne ended up with more jobs than brain cells including a role with our friends at Blackrock working one day a week for £650,000 a year. Osborne signed off a government contract with Carillion in 2014. Blackrock shorted the shares in 2018 before it crashed. Something about the night with that one.