Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

For those that like a longer view on gold, and I suspect this will flavour the horter term view, there is some very fine work by a Mineral Economist who has worked in the Industry for several decades now. One of his findings

"For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels in the longer term,it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance " So one can now see a rational for the M and A activity going on? Given exploration is getting deeper and the low hanging fruit are all well picked over, anyone believing the disocvery perfomance will go up is delusional. It has been going down consistently for many years now .

Another way of reading this, is that for the supply side to have any cchance of increasing there has to be far greater reward for taking on more risk and a higher discovery cost per ounce, which is most defintely coming, like night follows day. The greater reward would be underlain by a greater POG.

Its well worth reading Richards web site posts and he covers more than gold, but does it with a lot more depth, and decades of well gathered statistics ...

https://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/dec2017.html

cheers from Oz

Hope you are right razor and we get a boost Monday.i remember when the news papers would tip a share and the rise would be crazy but distribution is not what it was so will have to pray a bit tonight.i missed the jump to 124 and bought back in at 117.5 when the gold went up and cey went down.good luck guys

Omg Rebess what have I said.... imagine 10p buys you a good nights sleep..
Seriously if the pps doesn’t hit £1.28 tomorrow I believe it will by the end of the week...
If I was being asked what Sunday paper I’d most like a share tip comment in it would be The Times.
...a line my solicitor often uses when sending correspondence comes to mind.... “this will be believed.”
Definitely upbeat

Thankyou Razor. - I've only just tuned-in and read your very encouraging comments. - I won't get too excited but it's nice to know. - Hopefully, the thought of a 10p rise tomorrow will induce a sleep, full of sweet dreams and quiet breathing.

Thank you sharp person
I am not in the UK and rely on RT and Reuters on the web.
Encouraging ,
Good night and GLA.

Interestingly this was picked up on the ADVFN board earlier than here. There they zoomed in on the 4.1cents total dividend and that would therefore imply an anaemic final dividend of 1.6cents. The board then dismissed that as highly unlikely and are currently batting back and forth on what the final dividend will be with the last 2 posts suggesting 7.5 and 10 cents.

Many thanks Razor - I get the Times every day except Sunday - cheered me up no end!

commented on this..
This Sunday Times share tip will put ten pence on the price of Centamin right at 8am tomorrow!
Seriously this is as good as gold! (Pun intended)

Centamin, the Egyptian gold miners, was tipped in the Sunday Times' Inside the City column. The FTSE 250-listed company has had a mixed run, last year halving in value from above 160p in May before cutting its production guidance due to persistent low grades at its Sukari mine, hitting a low below 85p in September. Last month the company confirmed gold production in 2018 had fallen 13%, despite a 17% increase in the final quarter.

For full year results, which are due later this month, Centamin is expected to pay a dividend of 4.1 cents a share, putting its shares on a yield of 2.7% compared to peers around 4% and 5%. However, the stock is changing hands for just under 11 times earnings, compared to the likes of Fresnillo on a p/e ratio of 17.9. Broker Panmure Gordon have set a target for the shares, which finished last week at 118.35p, at 140p target, seeing many of its problems have been addressed. What's more, the gold price has risen steadily since November, closing last week at $1,317 an ounce.

Very fair comments Marmot, I agree entirely!

Sorry; U/G performance for 2019 should read as "similar to Q/4 2018)" and not Q/4 /17.

Why not we change the subject and discuss on what we project as the production target for Year 2019.
Studying the 2018 Prelim, it appears that the management have improved the open pit performance
producing in Q/4 2018 , 0.92 g/t which is almost the same as Year 2017. However they still have a problem
with the underground performance. Q/4 2017 figures were 8.8 g/t & ( Year 17 was 8.28g/t), compared to 6.2 g/t
during Q/4 2018. Do remember that the processing plant throughput is at its MAXIMUM ie 12.6 Million Tonnes.

With open pit delivering the same as 17 & 18, and U/G performing similar to Q/4/17, I would expect a target of
530-550 thousand ounces. If they have seen any improvement in U/G , they will only increase the target.
What will the SP be? You could place your buy/sell decision accordingly!!!

Hi Marmot,

You are the person this board whom I look forward to the most because what you post is usually so insightful.

I hope that you won't mind me saying this but I felt your post about Sotolo was misjudged. Like most of us he will post opinions that subsequently turn out to be wrong and like all of us he will sometimes change his mind as time passes. But from what I read I see him to be a genuine poster sharing his thoughts as he goes along. He is often more pessimistic in his prognosis of the Centamin share price than I am but I welcome that as it forces me to check my thinking. When the share price dived to the high 80s recently and he had already sold out I remember thinking how I wish I had paid more heed to his nervousness and subsequent selling.

Anyway, forgive me if you feel that my post is in turn misjudged and please do keep up your own excellent insightful comments on Centamin and gold.

Best wishes,
Prof

Good days bad days
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Days of laughter days of tears
Days remembering down the years
Dear Lord whatever the day today
Thankyou for it anyway.

Cheer up Sotolo. - It could be worse. :-)

Frank discussion has never worried me, in fact I prefer it!

best
the gold gnome....

Sotolo it is the weekend. Please sleep on it, take a breath and next week keep on posting.
I for one would be sorry to see you go. Everyone is entitled to their views and opinions and I don't see why you should be vilified for yours.
If someone doesn't agree that's ok, they can post and say why. That is the cut and thrust of debate.
However all should show common courtesy and respect the rules of debate without making personal attacks.
IMHO Mramot's comments are debate while Misolgit's comment / observation "I couldn't agree more , just go away and ramp or deramp some where else.." is something not worthy of the usual standard on this board.

Yes
Mizolgit & Marmot, I will go away, you lot did the same to Tibbs a while ago and you have done it before to me and others. Happily Tobbs returned after a while.
Yes I was very scared after the first profit warning last May, and increasingly through the summer so as I made clear in my posts I sold a hunk in the 130's more in the 120's and 110's, in the summer and early autumn, so £250k, it did look bleak for gold, but in the autumn I engaged in a lot of useful discussion with DJ Ryan and others, about whether gold and cey were maybe finding a bottom, with cey in the 90's, and about whether cey was turning, and we both took the plunge back in, so I bought all I had sold and a few more back in the 90's and lower 100's. I feel happy with that course of action, as I was not prepared to lose more as it was falling, it is my pension. It could have gone either way last autumn so selling half was for me sensible insurance. And it did continue down and I got back lower, although that wasn't the point.
Now I feel optimistic so as Marmot advises please do the opposite and sell,
Unlike your wise views mine are always imho, which I always say and as you now wish me to add
1) this is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice.
2) my forecasting is as bad as the Federal Reserve
3) seriously consider doing the opposite of whatever I recommend

Finally Marmot from Collins dictionary:
"If you say that someone has chutzpah, you mean that you admire the fact that they are not afraid or embarrassed to do or say things that shock, surprise, or annoy other people."

Well I seem to have done that which is a shame for the tolerance of this board and its openness to contrary ideas.
Now I will go away but please understand I never ramp or deramp but just say how I am feeling, which is sometimes that prices with fall as last May when I thought from 160 to 90's but underestimated it, which annoys you if you only like those who talk the market up, I do think some of you are rather mean bullies that I remember from school, when you have insulted others off this board for differing views, while those like Tibbs Prof Tiger, Uncertain and many more are so useful to talk to whether I agree or not, and I shall miss.

Thanks Prof

The price movements 30 day average over the last 3 month look good, breaking always onto the upside, and then a seller steps in ....so someone or group is having a game. But if these guys sell out, or get on the boat and there is a whiff of good news we are going to see some accelration upwards in the SP. Bit of profit taking in the POG last night, but nothing to worry about.

Yes I have settled down to my golden glow now although went a bit red agai when I heard some of or useless politicians in OZ, those who bask in the swamp, talking about how the scientists should advise the on what how to manage the Murray Darling, ... our only nationally significant river system ! Not sure where the clowns have been but the lunatics seem to have a good hold on the asylum down here. Energy policy. Banking Royal Commission #2, RC into Aged Care etc etc ... and an election in May...

Have a good weekend all
the goldgnome.

I couldn't agree more , just go away and ramp or deramp some where else..
Or just change your avatar again..
Must have been frustrating when no one listened to you the last time.
Buenos nochas ..
??????

Friday evening and time to relax. Sotolo you've got some chutzpah.The OED definition of chutzpah : shameless audacity; cheek.

Remember how in Sept/Oct you told us that the CEY price was going back to 60p; that gold was going to "continue to go lower" - even when it had clearly already bottomed weeks before and had by then recovered $80 from the August low and today it's +$160; and thirdly you forecast that the dollar was going to carry on rising- it hasn't. In your latest trading advice you make no mention of your 0 out of 3 score on your previous advice.

In today's post you again rope in Uncertain as a fellow sage trader, but was that wise? It was Uncertain who advised when CEY was trading at 90p "I wouldn't buy here". What would either of you say to someone who took your advice and closed out and lost money on your advice ? That's when an investor blog becomes dangerous ground.

If in doubt then discretion is the better part of valour. Food for thought. But if you insist on giving trading advice in future at least add :

1) this is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice.
2) my forecasting is as bad as the Federal Reserve
3) seriously consider doing the opposite of whatever I recommend

A. Gold is still £12 an ounce cheaper than early Jan, and sterling counts for us (and Uncertains dipolgog or whatever be called his currency basket)
B. Shares don’t usually rise in linear fashion, but shoot up, get a bit ahead of themselves, people take profit then off again. So as Prof point out this rose by a third so apt that takes a pause. It will get going again. It is interesting to compare cey to Hoc over a few years, and over any longer period they catch up with each other, despite diverging for. A few months on profit warnings etc. So as Prof says still not a bad buy now, but unlike his Advice, I would hang on. I got heavily back in in the 90’s ( along with DJ Ryan, where’s he) back to £500k, and am hoping to not be tempted out but sticking with it for next couple of years as I see gold breaking its all time high, and cey doing the same and more, imho and dreams

Last night there were some late delayed publicised trades, of 300k ,but nothing too dramatic.
Looked like profit takers,but who knows,as Tiger said it does not take much to rock this boat at the moment.

Red Gnome (or have you turned back to normal colour),

Your point ref a large seller off-loading is a good one given that we have broadly traded all this week in the 116-117 margins despite gold increasing significantly. It is almost as though someone is holding it there but whether that is to off-load a large quantity or for some other reason is unclear.

If it is a large scale seller it brings me back to my initial question - why would you sell at the moment? I suppose one possibility is simply that they took a large position in the 90s and have reached their target. Perhaps they are highly disciplined and manage to avoid that pitfall so many us make or being too greedy/ ambitious.

Best wishes,
Prof

care to expand goldnome? few examples?

One of the characteristics of investing in the exploration and minng that one observes is stupidity. It crops up regularly! You put this with a healthy dose of arrogance, and egotism, and a fundamental ignorance, and it leads to lower ROE and ROI for the insto investors in particular....not sure why this seems to be the lead characterisitc of the exploration and mining sector, but its worth a bet on, when you realise what is happening .... and I have done very well on betting against these acts ....

the gnome ...

Thanks, understood very well, ....