The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Can one specify whether the 31m tonnes was total material mined or total material moved. Why is this 37% above Q1 21 22.5 m tonnes when they allege Q1 22 production was planned to be low. How do you get a 37% increase in total material mined with an 11% decrease in gold produced to 93k from 104k Q1 21.
Cowichan I fully appreciate that the Barrick guys are working at Sukari and also appreciate they aren't all Canadian and pretty sure not all of the Canadians are French Canadians. If however there are a few who are then this will be of help when they develop Doropo and ABC because inhouse expertise is better than external hires which takes time to get organised . Filling expatriate jobs in Egypt with nationals will be a priority and pretty much I would suggest a necessity under the employment rules and regulations in Egypt.
Just saying that it provides some flexibility and like you I am not interested in a Barrick takeover far from it as if I had wanted to invest in Barrick I would have done it a long time back I have after all visited many of their mines.
Likewise any other major such as Newmont and I have visited both companies head offices in Toronto and Denver also many other majors they don't interest me as far too corporate for my liking.
Mr T------I was not being sarcastic intentionally. I know you have been here a long time and post often. I dont agree with you posting up political stuff even If I agree with your views. Also putting up stuff from 2014 / 16 etc when it could appear to be new information, can cloud things as well.
I know people cannot be right all the time and often the top share "tipsters " have a less than 50% success rate, which is what you would expect by chance. I think "the man on the train" has a similar success rate? I have previously posted that him, Siko or anybody can only report what they have heard and if the source is dodgy then the information probably is too. I rememer Siko posting that he had been told "Good times are coming. Good times are coming" . I consider Siko to be an honest and honourable man and hope him and his family are well.
Regarding "the man on the train" and "the man in the pub" -----------How well in the know are they if they say these things afterwards? With a little help and research , I could report last weeks lottery numbers, who won the Fa cup in a given year, or a grand national winner. Im sure you will get my point without taking offence.
Probably similar to yourself and others on here, I am hoping tha Martin Horgan sorts things out and that are a few decent sized gold finds at Sukari (in the short term) and other places in the longer term.
Dont worry about putting any disclaimers :-)
Well there you go, a kick in the crotch at the end of the day , Rebess was right this goes from bad to worse every time there is a presentation!
Well there we go, so much for the analysts forecasts and notes of £1.40 targets, etc!
Well my note is Target price -yet to be determined by when we get a BOD who are fit for post and some actual measurable results rather than pie in the sky estimates from analysts who know as much about whats going on at Sukari and other West African projects as the automatic check out at Tesco Express !
Quite so Cowichan,
If you wish let me have the questions you want raised via the usual channel and I will take them up with you know who to see if we can get you some answers.
From the archives circa June 30, 2011
Quartz Ridge
Drilling continued at Quartz Ridge with results confirming continuity of an east-west trending mineralised structure approximately 1.5 km east of the Sukari process plant.
Current intercepts include:
22m 1.11g/t from surface, including
5m 3.90g/t from 17m.
11m 1.08g/t from 58m
5m 2.04g/t from 31m
4m 16.4g/t from 156m
5m 7.03g/t from 42m over a 150m strike length.
A follow up 10,000m RC program to test the strike extent of this zone will commence in the 3rd quarter followed by a resource estimate** which will be included in the overall resource estimate of the project later in the year.
V- Shear
V Shear lays approximately 1km north west of Quartz Ridge and just over a kilometre from the Sukari process facility.
Following initial soil and BLEG sampling programmes 3 RC holes (600m) were drilled during the quarter with the following significant results:
7m 21.4 g/t (from 28m)
16m 3 g/t (from 151m)
The above intercepts as well as the relationship of V Shear to the Quartz Ridge mineralisation are potentially highly significant.
As such a 20,000 m RC program is being planned for this area as well as a soil/rock chip sampling program between the two mineralised zones.
--------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts:
** A resource estimate of Quartz Ridge was never provided shareholders (nor an explanation as to why it wasn't) even though a scholarly paper was written and published by an Egyptian University on Quartz Ridge specifically (outlining several aspects of the other-than-gold geology with mineral grades, too. )
Note the exploration, drilling and assay costs were all borne by Centamin shareholders - yet we are not privy to the summary conclusions, yet.
But, it's only been a decade. I wonder if some gold assay results (and the core sample data) went missing at some point? Some say the reason the security upgrade to the core data computer software (which stores the RELOGGING work of the last 18 months) was made in January was to prevent the same thing from mysteriously occurring again.
Oh - and the underground BONANZA zone we've just been hearing about at Sukari - I never got an answer from management as to just WHEN it was discovered ( or perhaps more correctly — RE-DISCOVERED from old core samples which went 'undisclosed' ) despite emails and queries submitted during the last couple of retail investor events.
Obviously the hunt is now back on for near-plant high-grade zones mineralized from surface while data from the original fieldwork has remained buried for a decade - and just what happened to shall we say 'corrupt' the data was never disclosed, and probably won't be disclosed as new employees are hired to replace old.
How convenient for the BOD none of this is addressed by banking analyst Q&A sessions
paulmetcalf
It's easy to criticise or be sarcastic of any information offered, with that in mind I shall certainly a disclaimer on any future post
But any information in the past I have posted has been offered in good faith and its for you and the others to decide whether or not to take any notice, I would have been delighted to have been able to warn everyone about the crack in the wall, most Centamin investors I know were of the opinion that the share price would fall back to around £1.60, Martin Horgan would issue a statement and the rectification would take a year or so to get things back up to speed.
However at that time the man on the train did say the word was that although a quicker fix may be possible it may not be the best or most reliable option for the long term, so it was a case of have to wait and see what the new man went for, that said no advice one way or the other was offered, or whether to stay in or get out, not that there ever was in the past, so I made the decision to stay, wrongly it would seem at present!
The man on the train was a useful source of confirmation on certain issue such a when the court case started up and there were all sorts of rumors concerning the legality of the 160 sq km and other operational/contractual issues , so no he weren't right all the time about all issues ,but then who is and any source of information are dependent on the accuracy of the information given to them and that like anything else can be subject to change.
Actually Kees Dekker flagged up concerns in 2015 prior to and almost correct to the month of 2018 when Andrew Pardey issued the next RNS of hitting unexpected low grades, etc , etc .
Unfortunately, but understandingly I suppose I chose to believe what a senior director was telling the share holders in preference the opinion of an independent, but highly experienced analyst, I made the wrong choice as did others, but Kees was spot on, although that said how many mining analyst get it right all the time, certainly not most of those giving opinions on Centamin it seems, how many of them when the share price was £2.30 were predicting £2,90 were aware of the state of the Sukari open pit until the wall cracked, so they all got it wrong, with the exception of Kees!
The friend from my local isn't offering advice, he is just repeating hearsay of what goes around the the market he deals in, but that said he isn't alone in his opinion on EMRA.
The man on the train said to me a long time ago that neither EMRA or the Egyptian government had ever put a single bean into Sukari and they never would, but they would take their cut and some, seems Dasut hit the nails on the head there in his reply to Cowichan!
There is lots that I could post on here, which some are already aware of, however I take the point its best not to post some information in an open forum in case things don't materialise as envisaged
*Please note This post does not offer or constitute any investment advice.
Hi DASUT,
The numerous Barrick hires of the past 24 months now work at Sukari in Egypt.
I agree that we shouldn't be surprised or put-off when Centamin attracts global talent - it's just the number of hires and the key positions they've filled at Sukari that gives me pause.
As I've said before a strategic combination of companies - given the right partner - might be sensible - but Barrick acquiring Sukari and all of Centamin's Egyptian concessions at this point would be a huge loss for long term shareholders. The value creation that one or two Sukari sized discoveries would bring is what shareholders have been waiting over a decade to see - not an underhanded Barrick acquisition at 10cents on the dollar of future valuation.
Cowichan, Something that I find interesting is how strong the new team is becoming and yes there are a number of Barrick guys coming on board. I quite like that albeit maybe presupposing too much but Ivory Coast as you know well is French speaking and synergies and flexibility makes sense to me as the business develops and grows.
There are few French speaking countries around the world like Canada producing mining professionals.
Presupposing the new appointees speak French but if they do then hats off to the HR Department or am I being too optimistic?
Miz, Interesting but I don't see EMRA throwing money at Sukari when they get a 50% share of the profits with no investment necessary. Experience tells me when Government nationalise going concerns in particular risky ventures like mines they crash and burn primarily because it is thought to be a license to print money and money means greed.
We know how easy it is to get things wrong even with so called professionals running the show.
Shalateen not sure who they are OK understand what they are but who are they is more important?
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:cey/forecast
and RBC says 140p
Regarding your 3 posts Mr T. I know you are a long time investor/ sufferer here, and i've been here over a decade myself EEK! But your contacts never seem to flag up concerns before things happen??? Im talking about the "pub contact" and "the man on the train", not Kees Decker and his findings . It is good to know what has gone on, but even better to know about it while it is going on!
Im hoping that Martin Horgan is sorting out the various problems he has inherited. I would assume he is savvy enough to have had a good idea what was going on before he took job.
Lets hope all the bad news is out of the way and things will get better soon. Im not getting any younger.
Hi Dasut, thank you for your thought and opinion on these issues, you know the business far better then we do, not a perfect scenario by any means, so what you are saying seems to make sense,
Hi Cowichan,
I think it's pretty obvious what ever Centamin team there was they weren't that good at whatever they were doing. possibly not their fault if the senior managers were too busy covering their own ars(e's to show any interest in the staff then things soon go downhill, certainly did at Sukari!
Hi Cowichhan,
Well after the mess that has been allowed to develop at Sukari and the dire state of things on site then it makes sense to have some staff who know what they are doing, can't really blame these professionals if they are offered a better package and there is no doubt they are needed.
Hi Rebess & Mizolgit,
I have to concur with you both, a pub contact whom I have known for a number of years a senior director in a services and supplies company whom has clients all over the region I usually see about once or twice a month, he has always been of the opinion there will never be a takeover by another company because EMRA already has the controlling interest,also he has always been of the opinion that EMRA couldn't care a jot about the court case because as far as they are concerned there is no court case!
He also said that it was a pity that they didn't have some of the new appointments at Sukarui five or six years ago because under the previous lot the staff were just left to do whatever they thought best and the only time any interest was shown in the site staff and the contractors was when there was a balls up or it was getting near to quarterly results time and then it was a case of fudging things to get the numbers up!
Seems now that Pardey & the El Raghy's were just "Bull****ters!", although the Jersey BOD obviously just carried on watching Seagulls and taking their handsome remuneration packages!
Tibbs, Cowichan No I don't think the questions have been fully answered not sure that it is an excuse but definitely think it is an issue that Horgan has inherited too late for a straight forward solution and certainly something he could do without.
Having been in country during and after a coup I do understand the frustrations so am prepared to give him and the team the benefit of the doubt. No way am I saying what has happened and is currently going on is acceptable but reckon Horgan in particular has a considerable number of other issues and projects that can bring about more beneficial contributions.
Batie West didn't work out BUT it was only part of the overall package and if Doropo and ABC prove to be profitable mines then 2 out of 3 is a good return in mining terms.
If Cey can partner with the likes of a major or a company experienced with refractory ore then excellent but I don't think the ore body is necessarily the issue in attracting a partner but feel it is more likely the political risk.
So in Cey's favour is that BF government won't necessarily want to take the concession back as they will have the same problem, without the knowledge and Cey contacts, maybe with Centamin prepared to share the risk with a partner.
In my opinion it would be of no advantage for the BF government who has far more issues to worry about than taking back the concession, and will I believe rely on Centamin to encourage a suitably qualified organisation to take the ore body to the next levels.
So yes there definitely needs to be better communication and it shouldn't be the likes of us assuming what the issues are because I/we have no influence over the thoughts of investors.
Good thought Miz - It makes a lot of sense. - There is undoubtedly something simmering in the background, something that always seems to play a hand/influence at the wrong time. - It's been in play for a while now. - You've made me think.
Shalateen - EMRA - - Never forget that EMRA already owns all of the assets at Sukari. Shalateen has moved into a strategically important adjacent location and of course there is the old-chestnut of the court-case. - The CC, unresolved as it is and still casting its shadow over the future of Sukari, could well be a card just waiting to be played when it suits.
Fanciful I know, but you have made a good point. IMO
Major European equities traded higher in the premarket hours on Thursday ahead of the release of new economic data and with the Ukraine crisis in focus.
During the day, investors will receive reports on inflation and consumer confidence. Besides, on the military operation, it was known that Kiev was prepared to hold a "special round of negotiations" with counterparts from Russia. Meanwhile, the conflict continues focusing on the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
The DAX gained 0.34% at 8:00 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.21%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.07%.
The euro was flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.08502. In comparison, the pound lost 0.10% to go for $1.30542 at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Why has everyone not considered ,if there is any takeover,the logical one is already the largest stakeholder..
their other miner is not far away already, they would make an offer if they wished.
That would be dangerouse to refuse.
Horses heads in Horgans ,BOD and El Raghys bed .
:-)
Probably better Barrick put us out of our misery...if our bod fell in a barrel of dicks they'd come out sucking their thumb
Thank you Dasut,
Do you feel then that Cowichans outstanding queries were then adequately covered or addressed in today's questions on Batie ?
Oh look - we are now approaching TWENTY former Barrick employees working at Sukari.
The latest hired just a few days ago:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacobus-richard-thorne-70378666/
UG Mobile Fleet Maintenance Planner
Centamin PLC · Full-time
Apr 2022 - Present
Al Jizah, Egypt
Past experience
Senior UG Fleet Maintenance Planner
Barrick Gold Corporation
Dec 2017 to Apr 2020
Mr Horgan has said he's rather flattered so many high quality former Barrick employees are choosing to join the Centamin team.
My concern is how long there will continue to be a 'Centamin' team.
On that theme ( and to further Tibbs comment on the line-of-credit holdup until August ) I hope our money man Mr Jerrard's is not so busy with some due-diligence/NDA project that his time schedule is in disarray...
I'm of the opinion they should have stopped the divi back when everything went wrong...the cashpile has dropped massively, the divi is just vanity. Seems we will now be lumbered with debt we didn't need so the company could tick the secure dividend box...think I read negative FCF of 21m in 3 months
Thanks DASUT - I did catch it on the audio.
For me it wasn't much of an answer as opposed to an excuse. Also, if they already know it's reverted back to the state - I hope it doesn't take 2 years and 100 questions from shareholders to finally admit it - as was the case with Wadaraddo and Napelapara
When B2gold was recently having concession 'issues' with the state they handled the communication of the problem and reassurances discussions were ongoing with state officials exceptionally well - that level of accountability doesn't yet exist with Centamin.
Perhaps he needs to delegate better. Who is in charge of the Burkina Faso file? Let's hear from him or her directly. Surely a statement is possible. In fact it's so bad I'm quite sure I personally have better insight into what's going on in BF than some/most of the Centamin board members -