The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I remember when I asked a DBA, if could guarantee the database change would work he said he couldn’t guarantee it - I then said would he be alive tomorrow ? (He was 35 years old and in good health)- he said he couldn’t guarantee it! So I asked him for probability on both and he replied 95% and 99.99999%- this then got me my decision making criteria clarification! The likelihood of these catastrophic events occurring and is predicting which ones, which order, when and impact etc is virtually nil- so why bother. Just detracts for sane trading…
Hi Farnky,
You raise some very valid points about the political and economic situation in Egypt, although I don't see much changing with next years election, I doubt the ordinary people have the stomach to go trough another revolution and will likely take the view of better the devil they know!
That said the situation is far worse and unstable in West African states which most likely is why Centamin pulled the plug after spendings hundred of millions on hole drilling!
In the past the Centamin management were less than truthful about the the potential future annual guidance and most importantly the inappropriate mining methods and corner cutting at Sukari to achieve short term gain and we share holders have been "Carpetbagged" and deceived by the senior management on so many occasions that trust has evaporated in the main.
The new CEO Martin Horgan can certainly talk the talk , but will he be able to deliver and that is the big question which is outstanding, until the AISC are reduced significantly and the underground is delivering on the alleged "Bonanza" grades the share price will remain at the bottom of the bargain bucket!
So why stay invested in Centamin, well the BOD and management are likely no worse , [possibly better than the management of the other miners who really care not a jot about anything else other than stuffing their pockets and boots with as much swag as possible !
In my experience the vast majority of listed companies are less than honest with shareholders and use corporate speak and slick PR agencies and corporate analysts to bullsh*t and baffle share holders to keep them dangling on he hook, but then that's life in general the ordinary decent people get shafted by the top table every time , you only have the look at the situation in the UK at present!
That seems very naive! You have a country in economic turmoil, terrible human rights that has seen the US pull funding an investment. A military run government oppressing the population and the war in Ukraine tipping swathes of folk into deep poverty. You think this is a stable country????!!!!! Glad you think so. You're invested in a old mine that is getting more and more expensive to operationally maintain, likely yielding less and less, in a country that is heading into an election next year with civil unrest. Um. good luck with that one.
"What a joke when others get longer sentences for far more menial offences!"
In wider crypto news, South Korean former crypto fugitive Do Kwon, who oversaw the collapse of Terraform Labs which was a catalyst of the two-trillion-dollar crypto market rout in 2022, has been sentenced to four months prison in Montenegro.
https://news.bitcoin.com/report-terraform-labs-co-founder-do-kwon-charged-by-montenegro-prosecutors/
n wider crypto news, South Korean former crypto fugitive Do Kwon, who oversaw the collapse of Terraform Labs which was a catalyst of the two-trillion-dollar crypto market rout in 2022, has been sentenced to four months prison in Montenegro.
Kwon was found guilty of forging official documents. He faces a litany of charges relating to the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin in his native country.
Whilst yet again the the "Banksters" get off with a piffling fine instead of jail for the perpetrators and having to pay compensation !
Regulators across Switzerland, the UK and US have completed their investigation into Credit Suisse’s handling of the Archeogos Capital affair, with new owner UBS potentially up for hundreds of millions of dollars in fines.
The FT notes that Britain’s Prudential Regulation Authority could impose a £100mln fine, while the US Federal Reserve could slap the bank with up to US$300mln (£235mln) in fines.
UBS is said to have set aside US$4bn from its war chest to deal with litigation against Credit Suisse.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1018329/ftse-100-to-open-lower-ubs-stumps-up-massive-credit-suisse-fines-1018329.html
European stock indexes were lower ahead of the trading session on Tuesday as market participants assessed the German producer inflation report and prepared for the Eurozone construction output data. Yesterday, most European Central Bank policymakers backed another interest rate hike next month.
The DAX decreased by 0.19% at 8:01 am CET and the EURO STOXX 50 declined by 0.27% at 8:08 am CET.
The euro was flat compared to the dollar at 7:59 am CET, trading at 1.09246. The British pound was 0.09% lower than the American currency, going for 1.27805 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
GS Retail, which operates convenience stores, confirmed on Friday that $19 million in gold bar sales were made there!
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1081965-gold-bar-vending-machines-the-new-craze-in-south-korea
Https://twitter.com/respeculator
@respeculator 13.8K Followers
https://twitter.com/respeculator/status/1670587935182442500
original post
"Becoming more and more convinced $PRU.AX and $WAF.AX going to merge. Perseus probably has US$600m in cash at 30-Jun and a further US$300m debt facility and have pushed back their Sudanese project. WAF needs cash to build their project/s. Good West African marriage."
reply
https://twitter.com/dcb30a/status/1670603066553536514
"We were going for PRU & Centamin "
and a reply from respeculator
https://twitter.com/respeculator/status/1670604833496387585
"That makes sense too..."
------------------------------>>>>
It's June 19th and Centamin shareholders are still waiting for the Doropo PFS -
an interested 3rd party could be one reason for its long delay -
note: Perseus already has its Yaoure mine in Cote D'Ivoire
South Koreans can buy gold out of vending machines placed at convenience stores, and sales are surging, according to local media.
The buyers are embracing the easiness of buying gold bars at vending machines, citing value appreciation and inflation concerns, UPI News Korea.
In the nine months that ended in May, $19 million worth of gold bar sales were reported, said GS Retail, the company that operates the convenience stores.
The gold dispensing vending machines were introduced at five of their stores back in September. Since then, this was expanded to 29 stores, with plans to reach 50 by the end of this year. Overall, GS Retail oversees more than 10,000 convenience stores across South Korea.
The vending machines offer five weight options ranging between 0.13 and 1.3 ounces. The most popular gold bar has been the smallest one, which goes for around $225, the media report noted. The gold prices are updated daily, based on the international gold price.
"People in their 20s and 30s appear to be the main buyers, purchasing physical gold as an investment vehicle, especially in times such as these, when its value is continuing to rise," a GS Retail representative told UPI News Korea.
With inflationary pressures and the banking turmoil in the U.S. weighing on consumers, more people in Korea started stocking up on gold, said Inha University Professor Lee Eun-hee.
"But a gold bar purchased at a convenience store seems more like something done for fun than as a means for serious investment. I believe the popularity of these gold bars is mainly due to their easy accessibility, at convenience stores no less," she said.
South Korea is not the first country to introduce this type of shopping experience, with the UAE selling gold via the Gold To Go vending machine.
Despite the domestic popularity of gold, South Korea's central bank has embraced a more "cautious" approach to gold buying, preferring the liquidity of the U.S. dollars.
In a June report, the BOK said it maintains its U.S. dollar liquidity at times of high recession risks and geopolitical uncertainty, adding that it is still worried about the direction of gold prices.
"A cautious approach is necessary for determining whether to increase the ratio of gold in the foreign exchange reserves," the BOK said.
The central bank also noted that gold has already rallied quite a bit and could be close to peaking. More gold negatives were high interest rates and the difficulty of selling for liquidity purposes.
At the end of May, the central bank held 104.4 tons of gold in its foreign exchange reserves, worth around $4.8 billion and accounting for 1.14% of its total reserves.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-06-19/South-Korea-is-selling-gold-bars-in-vending-machines-and-sales-are-surging.html
Siko, Good to hear from you and like you I feel Egyptian politicians and their advisors see nationalisation as political/financial suicide. Egypt rely so much on the World Bank and International country finance and goodwill would go through the floor if they even hinted at the word.
They definitely need to do the opposite and encourage international investment especially if they are to develop their mineral resources.
Tell to the best of your knowledge do you feel the 5/6 influential Egyptian families still have advisory influence?
I remember in the early noughties senior family members of large Egyptian organisations were co-opted into the ministries to organise, restructure, streamline, manage and introduce efficiencies.
Sure he loves you, but he doesn’t like lies or manipulations
GLTA,
Dan
As a matter of interest I asked the company these questions on Tue, 31 Jul 2012 ,hope this helps!
As an investor in Centamin I wonder if you could explain the following questions if you are allowed or able and if not then let me know why?
1. There are rumours that gold mining may be nationalised in Egypt by the new government and I wonder if there is any truth in these rumours?
2. Is the recent strike at an end?
Answers-
Gold mining in Egypt is currently being carried out only by Centamin, though there is some exploration work being done by other companies. There have not been any announcements by EMRA, or indeed the Oil Ministry (under which the contract which Centamin has with the government sits under) and indeed the government is highly supportive of Centamin and plans to expand its production to in excess of 500,000 oz per annum. In view that Centamin is protected under the Oil Ministry, the same rules of tenure would apply to the oil companies (and there are a number of oil majors in Egypt), so any nationalisation would set a precedent that could significantly impact Egypt should it choose to go this route.
In terms of the strike, progress is being made but we will only announce when we are confident that all of the issues have been cleared up.
This is still work in progress.
Not sure if we have confirmed the bottom yet. USA shut this afternoon. If the low is not in, I expect it may happen in the coming 6-8 trading sessions. Possibly 92-93p double bottom. The alternative is the bottom was hit.
Major stock indexes in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Monday as investors continued to assess how the latest central bank monetary policy decisions will reflect on the economy. European Central Bank's officials shared that the chances of another interest rate hike in July are high. The Bank of England is next in line to make its move, which will be revealed this Thursday.
Meanwhile, this week will also be marked by a string of fresh data. On the agenda are German producer prices, the United Kingdom's consumer prices and retail sales, and both of the country's composite PMIs.
The DAX decreased 0.32% at 8:08 am CET, while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.41% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.45% at the same time.
Both the euro and the pound traded flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.09408 and 1.28244 respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Monday y’al
Remember Jesus loves you
Cowichan,
My point is that nationalization does not even get mentioned in Egypt now, despite all the financial troubles.. let me know if you find any recent article taking about it..
Those companies mentioned in the report, this was a tricky issue followed 2011 revolution, it was not initiated by the government.. just like Centamin court case..
As to the Suez Canal... Let's not even go there because I don't want to talk politics, history and occupation..
Loads of waffle ,history and your suppositions .
Everyone is getting used to it.
Take up politics in your country ,it will give you something to occupy your time. :-)
But to be honest, nobody knows what Egypt will do when they are faced with insolvency. Some articles from the past:
------------------------------------->>>>
https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-govt-bill-prepares-companies-for-re-nationalization/
Egypt Govt Bill Prepares Companies For Re-Nationalization
October 30, 2018
Companies that have handed down judicial rulings on their de-privatization include: Nile Cotton Ginning, Tanta Flax, Omar Effendi, Steam Boilers, Shebin El Koum Spinning and Weaving, Arab Foreign Trade, and Simo Paper.
Egypt’s Ministry of the Public Business Sector has prepared a draft law to eliminate the entanglements of companies returning to state ownership.
The law, consisting of only two articles, stipulates that re-nationalized companies should be referred to the Investment and Dispute Resolution Committee, to consider how to compensate investors who bought them in good faith.
story continues on link
---------------------->>>>
How Cairo Cracked Down On One Of Egypt’s Leading Businessmen -Inside the government and military’s squeeze on Safwan Thabet and his dairy company
Weeks before Thabet’s arrest, one of the senior officials tasked with overseeing new state-led milk production projects conducted several visits to one of Juhayna’s factories. During these visits, this official was allowed in on the how-to of managing the factory and the modernization of its equipment and operation systems, a second political source tells Mada Masr.
According to this source, Thabet appears to have been approached with a proposal to think about merging some of Juhayna’s factories with the new state-led initiative as a gesture of real support to food industries. Thabet treated this talk as mere chat rather than a request, the source says.
These visits coincided with Sisi’s repeated directives from last May and until early September to the prime minister, the agriculture minister and a number of other officials including Major General Mostafa Amin, the director of the Armed Forces National Service Products Organization, to establish a comprehensive integrated production and collection system all over the country. The plan included 200 milk collection centers.
Sisi drove these points home once again in remarks made just hours before Thabet’s arrest,
https://www.madamasr.com/en/2021/05/05/feature/politics/milking-juhayna-for-all-its-worth/
------------------------->>>>
these are not the actions of a free market supporting democratic regime, to say otherwise is only to falsely reassure Centamin investors all is well
and the granddaddy of all Egyptian nationalizations
On July 26, 1956, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal Company, the joint British-French enterprise which had owned and operated the Suez Canal since its construction in 1869
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/suez#:~:text=On%20July%2026%2C%2019
Very interesting trying to "balance" all of the paper stuff (Fiat currencies.) It reeks of fabulous poiliics, and hopeless logic
Get into real assetts as soon as possbile and ont forget gold
Egyptian pound?....turkey's lira,fairing a lot worse.
not to mention,theyre inflation rate,which went into overdrive,well before covid
Is nationalization of Sukari a real possibility?
No.. nationalization of any company in Egypt is not on the table at all.. and it never gets mentioned.. not even as a rumour..it's actually the opposite.. Egypt is pushing for privatisation.. Egypt is aiming for the mining sector to increase its contribution to the country's income from 0.5% to 5% by attracting international companies.. Egypt is not planning to mine through government owned companies.. they can't.. they know it.. and they are not planning to do it..
Yes the Egyptian pound is doing very bad.. and could do worse.. but default is not going to happen.. when the government struggles, they borrow more.. the Egyptian pound sinks.. prices go up.. Egyptian people suffer.. but don't worry, it won't affect your investment.. actually it's better for centamin, as while its income is in US dollars, it pays employees in local currency, so it actually pays less in US dollars as the wage increase is nothing compared to the currency devaluation..
June 2022, US dollar was 18 Egyptian pound..
June 2023, it's official listing price is 31, but you can never get it for that price, its actual price in the market is 38.. I was in Egypt recently and sold dollars for 38.50.. so the currency has more than halved in one year.. and prices of everything nearly tripled if you add normal inflation..
A USA- China war expected? What planet are you on- there will be no war between them, plain ridiculous
Is not whether the US dollar is on the verge of devaluation - but rather what is the state of Egypt's currency. To this end - an article about Egypt's dire need for income :
------------------>>>>
The Suez Canal Privatization Conundrum
MAY 29, 2023
Selling some port facilities to private or foreign investors would take the country into the uncertain waters of free market economics. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is aware of this, but he has no other solution. At a recent summit in Dubai, he declared: “Egypt needs a trillion dollars per year. Do we have the money? No. Do we have half? No. Do we have a quarter? No.”
The Gulf monarchies have understood the gravity of the Egyptian economic situation, which has become so dire that the government is now advising the poorest to survive on chicken feet.
The Suez Canal’s profitability is not under debate. In fact, after carving out a new river section for supertanker transit, profits surged 25 percent, reaching $7.9 billion last year. This upward trajectory has continued throughout the first months of 2023, with a robust 35 percent rise in the first quarter.
Development work on the canal is almost nonstop. The latest project to widen the waterway by an additional 10 kilometers of bidirectional traffic (between terminals 122 and 132) is nearing completion. It will allow an additional six vessels to pass through every day. More ships mean more revenue. On March 13 this year, Cairo celebrated a record number of vessels passing through in one day: 107
It has long been an unspoken tradition for the state to reward senior officers with prestigious positions in large companies when they retire. The current chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, Osama Rabie, is an admiral and the former commander of the Egyptian Navy. Though Mr. Rabie is a widely accepted and respected leader in his role, there are instances in other organizations where individuals have been assigned roles for which they lack proven competence. The negative impact of such placements on the efficiency and performance of these organizations is readily apparent. The connections between the formal and informal economies are plentiful and often hard to trace.
The privatization of the Suez Canal is both vital and precarious, given the current economic climate in Egypt. Debt alone accounts for 54 percent of public expenditures and domestic consumption is on a downward trend. Cairo is racing against the clock to implement necessary changes.
--------------------------------->>>
Centamin investors - let that sink in - in Egypt "debt alone accounts for 54% of public expenditures" . Stop wasting your time worrying (or fantasizing) that the US will go bust - your investment is in Egypt. How would an Egyptian default impact Centamin? Is nationalization of Sukari a real possibility?
article continues here:
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/suez-canal-privatization/
A USA-CHINA war can't be a black swan as everyone expects it, and black swans are totally unexpected
Lol Mr T :-). Enjoy the weekend :-)
That's fine, each to their own, I feel exactly the same about golf.