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I had Wednesday as TD guess for A5 also, but like most of you (unless you're in the know) I haven't a scooby what's occurring or occurred.
FAO Swerves, nothing to report yet (just one successful tender for water disposal)... Am trying to have at least one look per day.
Is a little nippy at BNG currently (has been since late on the 20th), not quite deep freeze but certainly chilly, light winds and no precipitation. Could possibly delay new works, but shouldn't affect existing works, freezing water is usually the main issue, most kit is rated to -25c and below.
21st Aug RNS announced that the A5 side-track is underway from 3976m depth, targeting an additional 500m by the end of Sept 19, implying an expected drill rate of appx 12.2m/day (500m/41days) which has evidently not been achieved.
27 working days later, 17th Sept RNS advises that A5 is “more than 200m” deeper, and therefore somewhere below 4176m, implying an indicative average drill rate of at least c7.41m/d.
13 working days later, 30th Sept RNS advises A5 is at 4288m, implying a drill rate of c8.62m/d, at most, since the RNS on 17th. The aggregate average drill rate is now up to c7.8m/d but drilling is paused for logging.
37 working days later, 6th November RNS advises A5 is at 4324m after a further pause to widen the well bore. The pause dropped the implied drill rate since last the last RNS to c0.97m/d, bringing the aggregate average drill rate down to appx 4.52 m/d.
The same 6th Nov RNS advises a revised expected TD of 4450m i.e. 126m left to drill.
At the highest observable drill rate achieved to date, 8.62m/d, A5 might have TD’d around Wednesday afternoon-ish, assuming that drilling was still ongoing without any further pauses since the last company RNS.
At the slightly lower historical rate of 7.8m/d, A5 would have TD’d yesterday-ish after drilling its final 45cm in just under an hour and a half.
Assuming that Casp are taking their time, because they do, and using the second slowest historic aggregate drill rate, of 7.41 m/d, it would take c17.01 days from the last RNS to reach TD.
Which is today, with 3cm left to drill, which should take just under 6 mins. Ish. Rejoice!
With the final casing still left for BH to do, no surprise there’s been no A5 update since 6th November. Yet. Maybe next week. Probably the week after with the November production numbers.
At the slowest daily rate, 4.52m/d, assuming another pause, TD won’t be until 3rd December. Ish.
As for the other deeps, who knows? But rest assured Clive says it could be “this period”. The Cretaceous period - c80million years. “This period”, the Neogene - 23m years and counting! The man keeps saying he’s not technical so I’m hoping he wasn’t speaking geologically.
Good luck all. A5 Should be nearly there. Ish.
N.b. above assumes 24/7/7 drilling & that depth measurements and RNS content were produced by CC and signed off, the day before RNS publication. It also dismisses the little porkie in The Interims, that they announced the A5 side-track was underway on 2nd August. They didn’t. See 21st Aug RNS. (IMO DYOR etc etc etc)
I'm not one to deramp my own investments, but it's just the same old carp, brim everyones expectations, all get excited, CC pops the bubble then rinse and repeat. Whoever has traded this over the years must have made a fortune.
A family member who recommended this dawg says it'll come good by xmas. I have my doubts.
Some people have suggested that the current delay may be a combination of cash flow issues and getting BH on site to do everything they need to do at one time. If that is the case an RNS on further development of the MJF structure may be the best news we can hope for at the moment as it will unlock the investment in the deeps. Information, having improved for a while, is now poor again and this leads to speculative moves against the share as a few people decide they don't want to stay the distance and that share has returned to it previous levels of frustration. It doesn't seem to take many sells for the MMs to move the price quite a distance.
This is disappointing, but I personally think that it is a matter of delay rather than failure (although that is not the same as saying there will be no individual failures on some of the deep wells). Wouldn't want to be out of this over the winter.
Honestly by the time they release any "ground breaking" news oil will be irrelevant we will probably have moved on to fusion reactors and all be telleporting to our destinations! All jokes aside this is getting beyond even incompetence, how have they failed to even realise one flow test yet? I can understand the very morally currupt way of how they would want to make sure that those at the top gave everything in place to make the most! It happens in every aspect of our society! But this is just sad now. We ar e all looking for trading signs for RNS or news that will see this break its doldrums norms but every time over the past decade it's all been bluster... you would think now with the international licence firmly in pla e they would pull the finger out....
No RNS this week! Do not want to have RNS on Friday. I do not understand what CASP has been doing up to date?
Apart from A5 where they need technical advice and expertise from BH scheduled late of this month, I think I have heard acid treatment for A6 and 801 for more than 6 months ago. As far as I know acid treatment is not complicated job to process, it might take a week or ten days. Already elapsed two weeks since last update, and we are not told from any progress. Is it because of Sinopec culture?
Seems to me A8 could be game changer for CASP, but, Clown Clive suddenly mentioned coil tubing equipment for cleaning well. However, Clown Clive has been changing his words with reasoning ridiculous, i.e. coil tubing equipment. Just wonder what will be the next bloody execuse.
Imac1 - agreed m8 - not fussed about timescale as weather could get in way or kit can break - the important thing is to understand their plan and just have the mind set to sit back and wait, a pound within the next 12 months looks very possible to me so happy to do just that.
CC couldn’t agree more we witnessed close to 24p on a spike with A5 conforming oil and going on flow test. Furthermore the shallows were not as far developed and being sold at international prices back then . If 2/3 wells come in before Xmas then 50p+ is a real possibility.
Adz, that would be the ideal play for Clive to hit and hold his 30p bonus level ... with the market moving up and down, I think he will have a 50p spike in mind in order to hold 30p for the 30 days qualifying period.