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This makes sense concerning the well work over requirements on the existing MJF.
The advantages of horizontal wells include:
Reduced water and gas coning because of reduced drawdown in the reservoir for a given production rate, thereby reducing the remedial work required in the future
Increased production rate because of the greater wellbore length exposed to the pay zone
Reduced pressure drop around the wellbore
Lower fluid velocities around the wellbore
A general reduction in sand production from a combination of Items 3 and 4
Larger and more efficient drainage pattern leading to increased overall reserves recovery
KK - No worries - nice to have something positive to chew over for a change.
If we take Clive at the absolute Carverism of his word then work the numbers on 51% export and 49% home brew..... still looks ok doesn't it ?
The Horizontal drills are intersecting massive layers of geology in 152 Metres, almost like fraccing a trad drill ?? so maybe they are combining three traditional wells into the produce of one horizontal drill ?
Could do with someone technical in the trade from Kazakhstan to look this data over and inform what is what rather than us lot double bluffing each other.
Cost of traditional MJF drill $1.5M
Cost of Horizontal drill ?
Recoveries after x time elapsed ?
This is the first bit of good news that CASP has had it very very long time & may it continue. I’m feeling slightly better tonight as my 4.5p average could & should be achieved this year ? All I hope is that we go on a roll of good news as momentum is everything to get new investors on board. I bought CASP on the potential & still remain positive for a multi bagger GLA
I think KK was suggesting $45 pb netback, rather than $45 price which would be very low. They have previously said that they get a bit less than Brent, possibly in the $65-70 region as a guesstimate
On the other hand the shallows are low sulfur which is good. I think the price is already accounted for in their breakeven estimates but it would be good to know what price they are actually getting for their exports from MJF
tuscon. RNS today is very good news. An extra 645 bopd. We do not know the exact split between the %s of oil sold on the domestic market and that sold for export. It could be 70/30 or 65/35 export/domestic (good question for Clive) I suspect KKs estimate of $45 pb for export is about right, and $12.4 pb for domestic. So the split could be 451 bpd export and 194 bpd for domestic. Today`s RNS refers to three days production, lets see what happens in three months. It looks as if horizontal production wells are the way to go.
Thanks UC/Bson,
Tucson, my numbers won’t change , we’ll actually will probably change for the better as I based it on a 70:30 split but I can’t quantify or qualify Clive’s statement ie most of the oil will be sold at export prices which should be achieving $45-$48 currently.
https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Caspian-Baverstock-presentation-11-May-2017.pdf
Found this on the website which descibes the shallows as medium to heavy while the deeps are 38-46 api, which supports bobsson's view
KK, Check out Jupiter Energy website, delisted from AIM but just about going on the ASX. Kazakh operations only, same as CASP. I think JPR oil around 38 degree and selling on the domestic market for $25 pb. Casper selling for $12.4 pb both sell to oil traders at the well head. I suspect CASP shallow MJF oil is around 20 degree API. The deeps are around 40 degree API?
I was surprised by that one as well KK. My recollection is that MJF sells for close to Brent but I think we were told that quite a while ago.
I am going to suggest fourpence by the end of the week, once all the sellers have gone and the word gets about that something interesting is happening as CASP
That's an interesting one Bobsson. I haven't seen the communication that MJF oil is heavier and not commanding a premium price ? I haven't checked back but the oil from Airshagyl or lack of it was c 46API but i haven't checked MJF. The netbacks from export will be c $45 from gross Crude @ $74, maybe a little higher and hopefully shareholder questions will shed some more light on current netbacks for domestic and exported oil. Are you saying that A block oil @ 46api can be sold higher than current MJF ? (if they had any !)
Reading technical info on horizontal drilling (fracking), quite interesting and some structures very suited to such techniques, let's hope that MJF with multiple layers of 1-5m columns can be exploited far more commercially than with vertical drilling .
uncertain, The corner was turned I think when the CE (drilling barge) was hired and the 3AB licence subcontracted. The Well 154 news continues this progress. We have been here before with the deeps, but if the horizontal well keeps producing lets have a few more!
MJF shallows contain heavy oil, and does not command a premium price. The producers need lots of maintenance and shut downs as production numbers tail off. So it will be interesting if Well 157 bucks the trend and can consistently produce at over 500 bpd over a longer period. CASP say they want to drill more horizontals now. Question for an oily, could the existing wells be sidetracked and turned into horizontal producing wells?
They implied the 70/30 split would apply to the increased output, bobsson, but as usual the RNS lacked precision and they simply said the majority.
CASP has fallen of the radar of many investors out there. It may take a day or two to start to pull new investors in, but this now looks like a no-brainer
Not all will be exported. Current split about 70% export 30% domestic?
650 barrels per day and to be exported, awesome!
50% increase in production to boot.