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Average price for BRENT in 2021 (So far) $69.29 which is brilliant for oil producer CASP we just need to get back to the highs of 2011,2012 and 2013 over $111.00 ......... 8-))
Indeed it is KK, I didnt think we would be at this price with Biden's exploits, It does appear that the efforts to reduce the POO is not quite having the required impact, now above $74... .....02:14 am CDT 07/12/2021
Brent Crude(February Contract)
74.02 +1.20%
Meanwhile Brent above $73 and heading north. Maybe tomorrow would be a good day to release GREAT news .
Ouch! Yes you can always rely on HMG to c9ck things up. Let's just hope the remaining diagnostics lines do well so that some of those folks can at least exit at break even someday.
£46m market cap vs a £750k contract is what happened ... shame and the UK Govt let them down badly.
Coffee, what on earth happened to Omega???
Yep if they weren't on good terms. The barge at 12p instead of a fraction of the price ? who knows.
The other way to look at the £1m placing being the concert party wanted to stop Kuat adding anymore at 2.75p and preferred them going outside..
The $1m was a ' i'm not risking the family dough on this money pit anymore' . Tim getting the push, directors taking a salary haircut and operations brought to a near standstill. Yep, POO saved them but still would've continued by diluting the investor base inc themselves.
Market volatile, good to see Crude holding up but we're in the hands of Omicron re next move, hopefully it's as early data is revealing , more infectious but less harmful.
I know what we I don't want to see in next update and i certainly don't want to see excuses or to have to decipher misleading RNSs. News is overdue on many fronts but maybe they've had nothing material to release ?? As i said, next news to be mixed but still expecting a move above 6p but hoping for more, anything else would be disappointing.
The £1m placing was a result of fluctuating oil receipts within that period , international for that period sales at 50-60%, local sales at $6.20 after lifting and transportation costs..
Keep up at the back.....
CC,
It's a simple one, they increase the cash flow by renting/selling barge, building shallow production and who knows, even get a deep to flow. Crude at sub $50 doesn't send them under but it makes it hard and the $1m placing said a lot, KO was either lacking in a few bob to continue backing it or didn't want to risk any more of his personal dough. Good news, POO recovered and cost of admin, general and operations reduced as a result of Covid. Looking forward to seeing how they fared financially in H2 but it will be the best set of results since incorporation.
Clive, you've bought eight weeks thus far to issue news, that's not a monthly update so enough time to issue that comprehensive update with a very positive slant.
TT.
No ambiguity from them in the price related RNS, they were sending out messages that they were going skint and asking for Kazak Gov't leniency - they didn't get it but the POO turned and saved them.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/interim-results-3ixeo4vdh7t9rm9.html
The forecasts remain sensitive to oil prices, which have shown significant volatility. Independent of the factors above, if international oil prices fall below c$30/bbl additional actions would be required including further cost reductions, additional payment deferrals and raising funds.
Average daily production in the period bopd 1,494 Six months ended 30 June 2020
Since Q3 2019 we have been able to sell the majority of the MJF production by reference to international rather than domestic prices. In recent months this has typically been between 50 and 60% of our total production.
The remainder of our production is sold as required under Kazakh regulations to the domestic market. However, with prices of only $6.2 per barrel after processing and transportation costs and associated taxes the net return from production sold on the domestic market is very low.
This is the bare bones required to survive and wait for POO to increase - we are now well over that both in terms of POO and production levels..
At $54 per barrel at 1700 BOPD they can drill deeps , horizontally redrill the two shallow fields, lay pipelines, pay for Dutch acid specialists etc etc.
With the Boat rental and 3 AB sale this is the excess funds required for an introductory dividend.
Not a complicated story here unless you wish to try and make it appear so.
Oil $30.00 or under + it exists, barely scrapping by.
Oil $54.00 it drills the deeps, it progresses, pays all of the BNG tax debt (£3m paid down, will be more now ) and generally turns into a larger oil company selling circa 70% of its oil on the international market.
I think this discussion underlines the ambiguity of the meaning of breakeven. In relation to CCs post $30-35 was what they needed to stay in business in the dark days of the pandemic (they were paying the oil traders in oil not cash at that point) and in relation to KKs post $55 is what they need to start financing the deeps program and therefore would need to debt/ equity finance below that price.
These are exactly the kind of rare bits of information that I use to calibrate my spreadsheet and why I conclude that we need $65 plus for a dividend (or boaty/3AB sale)
I meant finals. $54 break even but that’ll be incorrect as oil has averaged c high $60s 2021 to date and they’ll be building cash reserves since release. Also, if 153 is commercial and SY awarded then that number obviously drops but it ain’t $30.
KK,
Wasn't in the interims.
That quote was from the Annual Report and Financial Statements for the Year Ended 31 December 2020
https://www.investegate.co.uk/caspian-sunrise-plc/rns/annual-report-and-financial-statements/202106290700033981D/
These were the prices they received :
Export prices fell from the mid $60's per barrel to a low of $16 per barrel before recovering steadily to the mid / high $60's per barrel per barrel. Domestic prices fell from approximately $19 per barrel at the start of the period to approximately $6 per barrel as the full impact of Covid-19 bit and have yet to recover.
Production volumes in 2020 were some 7.7% higher at 545,667 barrels at an average of 1,491 bopd compared to 506,620 barrels in 2019 at an average of 1,388 bopd. This increase is despite the missing contribution from the South Yelemes field.
Production volumes fell after this date and then rose again as the POO increased which allowed MJF workovers and shallow well 153 to re-enter production at circa 600 BOPD.
Increased volume of 1700 bopd at circa $30.00 ( 70/30 international to domestic split ) is breakeven and allows minimal MJS workovers, anything above this can go into new drills.
What the Sept Interims did tell us was that:
International oil price recovers from approximately $16 per barrel to approximately $75 per barrel
Domestic oil price recovers from approximately $6 per barrel to approximately $20 per barrel
16 % decrease in production ( now increased with well 153 note south Yelemes 300 bopd still off line )
Current production 1,689 bopd
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/interim-results-hlavfvnmxw9yn6g.html
Stick to your trades with Shell mate, you'll get burn't again shorting Casp.
From the Interims -;
‘Inevitably, there is an international price below which the Group would need to take further action to conserve costs or raise additional funding. The Board considers that price to be around the $54 per barrel level.‘
Un, factor in the repaying of oil traders and increase in export vs domestic % and it was $30 ... in an old RNS if u want to look it up.
Yes, but what did they mean by breakeven in those circumstances. As I recall they cut back all investment activities to zero and paid themselves in shares. Any workovers that might have been needed simply didn't occur. Given time the 1200 bopd would have deteriorated. My recollection is that it was $35 anyway.
$45 -$55 gives you a good workover programme and expansion of the shallows program at current output and export percentage. $55-$65 gives you money to spare for the deeps. Above that and you get a dividend as well. Or so my world famous spreadsheet says.
So at 1200 bopd at $30 per barrel 60% export and 40% domestic they said was breakeven.
When it slipped under that they placed for £1m and Kuat lent them money at 3.2p per share.
Oil isnt going under $30 this is going to multibag even more.
Cheers Un, $30.00.
Production and Volume with Price are the keys ..
Did you mean $30 rather than £30 Coffee? Breakeven can be short term as well as long term. No doubt we could survive for a while on $30 or at least $35 but for any investment to take place we need to be above $45 and for even a modest divi(say 0.1p) at today's output we would need $60
Break even for casp is £30.00 per barrel and allows minimal workovers to keep MJF going.
Anything over £40.00 and this can progress.
Hmmm difficult situation. The Opec+ meeting decided not to open the taps any further but the US piling pressure on. Agree with KK, $85 and I'm looking to add on the basis that CASP have cash to drill (shallows please) and Clive keeps dropping the D bomb. $70 all OK and I'm sitting tight, Sub $54 and the brown stuff starts flowing but it's not oil.
10% bounce from the $66 is good to see but still in the dark re new variant and it's likely affect on demand.
I am hoping to see a positive conclusion on the barge before year end. As per link below, N Caspian Sea (lake) was ice bound for 4.5 months, the longest for 10 years but ice free come early April. Looking at weather forecast in Atyrau i don't believe the freeze starts to mid December and who knows, could be ice free by end March which is the norm, maybe global warming reduces the season further.
I'm expecting SY award and an average result at 153 , 802 spud,144 spud and problems at A8, everything else WIP.
https://iceman.kz/end-of-2020-2021-ice-season/
Casp and crude price effect. I agree that it may not respond like a large oil producer but it is a key factor. If Crude bounced back to $85 now, i'd be buying more as would many others and hey presto sp increases.
Was looking at the Daehan NP share price and down 15% from the last Casper RNS, crazy that a company has 10% of it's value invested in a Kazakh OE minnow ! Their sp didn't spike to mirror Casper's rise to 5p but i'm sure it'll have a massive effect if A8 flows commercially.
Sp had risen to 4.9p before retracing and maybe a little handle to grab onto for the next move up ? Chart poised and through 6p for me.
TT