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Fair point. Not to mention the actual product is much cheaper at Card Factory than places like Moonpig. Moonpig has got the coolness factor and the awareness of their website is good due to the TV advertising. If Card can make their brand look a bit more cool and raise awareness of their website, they should be in good shape going forward.
Yes and the click and collect is a USP for the online card sales which online only providers dont have....the ability to give the card without any postage cost to the buyer....
Many many positives .......
Surprised they have only just started to incorporate click and collect. It shows they haven't really been maximising the full potential of the online offering in previous years.
Sumoverhistories
Good question when will volume and interest pick up? That is really difficult to say but I would say at the LATEST latest going into next 6 month report or final year results...could be well before if they give update to market that sales are back on track again....etc. Also vaccine effect - early next year ...most of these shares will get an immediate boost from this.
I think next year this time SP is already back at £1.50 at least.
I think the click and collect trials if proven successful will be good news...
It seems a reasonable option to choose what you want from the internet and the store picks it out for you and you collect it....which may be quicker option than waiting for the internet delievery to your house.....maybe it could be a 1 or 2 hour click and collect ....minimum order size........
That would reduce the number of customers looking around the shop and have people just arrive, collect and leave....
The question is having the staff to do what they do now and be doing the click and collect ...finding orders from the shelves.....keeping the orders within the capabilities to have them picked.....and also having in stock what was picked online...
Tend to agree with most of that, mdun. When do you think interest and volume is going to pick up with this stock? Doesn't seem to be much news on the horizon now until January unless they manage to find a new CEO.
PFEn,
I admit my analysis is based upon the assumption that they are telling the truth about everything. No new CEO as of yet does not help of course as well as of course the reasoning for the departure of the CEO after 4 years. Although tbh I prefer a mile more an unexplained CEO departure to a CFO departure. CEO's tend to get strategies wrong. CFO's can be cooking the books secretly and know stuff which may not be being declared.
BUt looking at this from on outside business perspective - you cannot compare Card factory with travel companies at all.
People still go on and buy cards for events, (as proven by only a -7% fall in comparative sales last 4 weeks) and the elasticity of demand for cards is very high. They have tested increasing cad prices from 69p to 79p which had no negative impact upon sales volumes. IMHO they could EASILY go to 89p per with little impact to sales. They are still by far the cheapest player on the market and have massive scope to increase sales/revenue by simply increasing the prices by 10-20p a card. Still way cheaper than clinton cards.
Online card purchases still miles way form really badly impacting this market .....online cards people cannot sign or then have costs of postage to send to themselves ...this alone adds on nearly £1 in costs.....
Once COVIF gone return to parties and and boost in sales of high margin balloons....
It is to be honest this reason that I see post covid the possibility of profits returning and going higher than previously.
Other facts- they are starting to negotiate rents as % of turnover as are most retail stores ..they have strong negotiating power AND the rent lease liabilities are only about weighted 2 years to maturity!
This is why their strategic aim of net profits of ca. £100m in 4 years are not at all a dream target! As we know net profits on £100m and the SP is likely to be at £1.6b market cap and 15 x the present price. Not impossible at all.
As for debt (well debt excluding IAS 17 leases) is just over £100m. Remember the leases have recently been classified as debt with offsetting right of use assets on the Balance sheet. This debt is hence IMHO well manageable.
Likelihood of stores being reshut completely- close to zero...if it does happen then only for 2 weeks or so.
Main risk of COVID transmission not is stores like this but where people spend long time i.e. airlines, restaurants, cafes and bars!
They remain the market leader in card sales in the UK....
Possible takeover target at this price level......most definitely.....maybe not another card player but other retailer maybe B&M etc ....with very high market caps now....
I am simply saying that there is pattern with these companies that go bust. Sometimes rights offers are a way of kicking the can down the road ireally hope your right as i am holding these in my SIPP. Thomas cook had a rights issue and soon after went by must as it simply wasn't enough. Lets see what happens when rents are due. If these reached 1.86 I would be more than happy. Goid luck