Hi all I'm not one to boast but some of you will remember that about 2 months ago I forecast a pbt for full year of about 38m!
Simes will for sure remember this. Funny really this guy really has disappeared from the board as he should with his false misguided negativity with quite frankly zero predictive and investment skills.
Is Mr Eusebius by any chance just another invented name for Simes or Simes in disguise as Simes has thank goodness disappeared since badly losing the bet with me!
Im open to take on other players betting that the next 6M results will be PBT in excess of £25m......
This time the bet has to be for real money ...for real men and real investors who put their money where their mouths are unlike Simes..... So I have a £2k bet out with anyone who wishes to take this on?
Well now we are all set for £30-35m PBT for the second half now that CF have increased prices by 20%.
If we figure that inflation has been a 10% hit (remember they said £30m additional inflation induced costs over the year- which is actually only 7.5%). That means another 10% feeds down into the bottom line..well 10% of 220m = 22m. If we add back existing half year profits of ca. £10m then we are at £32m PBT for 2H. Add the 1H and we get £46m PBT end of this year or £38m Net profits for the year. That justifies a market cap of £400m at least over next 8 months or basically a price of £1.15.
Well now we are all set for £30-35m PBT for the second half now that CF have increased prices by 20%.
If we figure that inflation has been a 10% hit (remember they said £30m additional inflation induced costs over the year- which is actually only 7.5%). That means another 10% feeds down into the bottom line..well 10% of 220m = 22m. If we add back existing half year profits of ca. £10m then we are at £32m PBT for 2H. Add the 1H and we get £46m PBT end of this year or £38m Net profits for the year. That justifies a market cap of £400m at least over next 8 months or basically a price of £1.30.
CF is clearly being negatively affected by the general negative market mood which is very annoying and to means we may need to wait longer for the desired rerating of CF. My target price is £2 a share and I will reveal why in a next message later today.
Expect housebuilding shares to fall another 50%.....the housing market is on the brink of the biggest crash ever seen...with a light touch crash of -40,% in house prices and a worst case severe fall of 60 to 65%....once mortgage rates hit 8%...
Eusebius you ou are talking utter rubbish.
Did you not read the report? They have both currency I e. GBP USD and energy costs hedged until 2024. They stated that they expect margins to return to normal as the effect of price increases will take more effect in the second half. That means the second half result will be much better than this first half result. Probably around the 20 to 25m Pvt level at least....meaning full year Pbt of 34 m to 40m....
As everyone on this board may or may not know I had a bet with Simes. I bet net profits for This half year results would be in excess of 10m and if they were that he would permanently remove himself as a troll from this board. If I was wrong I agreed to remove myself. I won the best so I hope Mr Troll Simes will do the honourable thing and permanently disappear from this bosrd after today. Thank you
Liv estock - I agree with you.
IAG still has a market cap of £5b and this is versus only 1.65b in shareholder funds and £11b in net debt!!
If oi prices stay high with the cost of living crisis they have little hope of returning to preCOvID profitabilty in the bet 2 years. The big fear though is that they will need to recapitalise and possibly a very large recap - my guess is at least 3b
that will then dilute exisiting shareholders further - so IMHO the share price could easily go to 60-65p.
Yes Eusebius if CF make less than £10m gross profits in the last 6 months of the year I will willingly withdraw myself permanently from this board as I would be giving false estimates to other investors.
Eusebius
I cannot check this data as do not have access to last years AR. However the figure of 5.5m you mention does look about right. That's basically £5.500 per store on average. Now as far as I am aware the greatest energy increases are in gas not electricity. But lets say that there is a 3 x increase in these costs. That means an extra £11.000 per store or approximately an 11m hit OVER A FULL YEAR assuming prices stay at this level and for the next year from October this year. Even if they take an £11m hit, profits will still be around £25m for the full year - but of course the last 6 months they will have had a profit of ca. £20m in my opinion already. (unless they are hiding something we don't know about). Furthermore, it would be relatively easy for CF to further increase the prices by about 3% across the board to fully eradicate this extra cost.
The elasticity of demand for a low price product like cards is very large i.e. they could probably increase prices actually by 10% and still have minimal impact on sales. So overall the share price has massively overreacted to this and Simes estimates are fantasy land. Lets see when results come out - but if CF produce profits close to the 20m I estimate for the past 6 months I would wish for a group agreemnt to have Simes removed from this chat group permanently.
This is just ridiculous scaremongering.
Yes pubs bars butchers ..companies which have large fridges freezers the cost will be very high but not for a CF who have none of such....who will at most have heating and electricity costs of or light for about 4 months of the year only. Your maths are ridiculous and based off other companies who have far higher electricity and gas consumption.
SImes
you come on here and make claims with absolutely no grounding or justification or indeed proof.
If you can show valid proof then members on this board will be willing to listen to you. But if you keep making unfounded claims with no financial proof then you should kindly for the benefit of this board please leave. I personally have far greater belief in the banks with credits given to CF and their decision not to enforce a capital raise in April than somebody like yourself who has no clue. or do you have insider knowledge that nobody else has?