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That Narcissistic Nut-Job @
" 99 percent of my posting content is my own creation ... Creative thought is beyond your blunt fingers.
Never did an original thought enter your head or leave your keyboard."
----------------
Would that 99% include that 2014 Guardian article you copy/pasted in a full page post, a month or so back, word for word, and passed off as your own creative work?
And by the way, if you're going to be two-faced, at least make one of them pretty for Rod.
"We should use this opportunity to buy cheap as much as we can of good stocks like BT before the inflation arrives like is already happening in the US.-"
Kondratiev
The Annualised US inflation rate is well below what it was a year ago and well below where it was at the beginning of the year...it has merely ticked up a touch as a result of the end of some lockdowns and the very low figure for May...food is probably one area where inflation is showing a move to the upside
Whether the recent fall in the Dollar has any inflationary effect on import costs remains to be seen as that tends to take time to work its way through to the consumer ..current import levels are down on last year for obvious reasons and businesses are cautious about increasing inventory...
Clearly at present with a high unemployment rate and reduced activity as well as reduced energy costs I dont see any immediate pressure on US inflation
US Treasuries yields are still ridiculously low ...
The UK still has Brexit outome to contend with and it is that which "may" result in a fall in the value of sterling and a corresponding increase in import costs....that "uncertaintly" will no doubt raise its profile in the autumn
..although I would hope the covid cases would have peaked by then as the prime summer outdoor activity would have passed and winter flus will have yet to have started
IMO
Velo
“What a mouthful. Did you lift that from Wiki or elsewhere? -“
_________________
99 percent of my posting content is my own creation - 99 percent of yours are copy and pasted from psycho babble manuals.
Surely you must know that...
Creative thought is beyond your blunt fingers.
Never did an original thought enter your head or leave your keyboard.
The remaining 1 percent of your posts consist of slavishly parroted cliches.
Your posts could raise a biblical plague of flies - and you know what flies like don’tcha?
Toff
"It seems like I could teach this Kondratiev clown a great deal.
Toff "
----------------
If only closed minds came with a closed mouth.
This from the resident angry psycho nut job on here, posting at 16:52pm today, several posts below -
" You’re suffering from
mauvaise foi - the philosophical term used to describe human beings, under pressure from social forces, who adopt false values and disown their innate freedom, and therefore act inauthentically - closely related to the concepts of self-deception and ressentiment. "
-----------------------
Oh I'm sorry, did my back hurt your knife?
What a mouthful. Did you lift that from Wiki or elsewhere? -
Bad faith (French: mauvaise foi) is a philosophical concept to describe the phenomenon in which human beings, under pressure from social forces, adopt false values and disown their innate freedom, hence acting inauthentically.[1] It is closely related to the concepts of self-deception and ressentiment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_faith_(existentialism)
----------------------
Look, I'll admit it - You are the bigger man. There. Peace?
Especially since taking those ***** enlargement pills - now you're twice the Dick you were beforehand
Kondratiev
“We should use this opportunity to buy cheap as much as we can of good stocks like BT”
Good stocks like BT?
BT happens to be the worst performing stock in the index and one that’s in a death spiral. Your Kondratiev-inspired advice also présupposés that no one owns BT yet and now is the time to get in.
The problem with these beaten down stocks is that they accrue mass casualties on the way down. The £35 billion decline in market capital value is shouldered by investors. not investors waiting to buy in - but investors!
Gold - dangerously high???
Gold has value - intrinsic value - it’s a safe haven - a global currency.
I’ll tell you what’s dangerously high...
It’s crypto currencies - with no intrinsic value only an imaginary one. Rat-poison squared - as Buffett calls them.
And US tech shares - inflated by algo- trading made possible by mass-institutional collusion.
That’s what’s dangerously high - not the precious metal.
It seems like I could teach this Kondratiev clown a great deal.
Toff
"It’s all to much, less than a quid. Going to jump out of the basement window !!!!!!!!!!!"
Watch out for the cat, it sleeps next to that window!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s all to much, less than a quid. Going to jump out of the basement window !!!!!!!!!!!
Great post Fleccy completely agree. Seem to go a bit dyslexic there for a minute
@Velo
Glad you noticed my alias. I am a fan of Nikolai Kondratiev's theory(K-Wave/Long Waves). I am not an expert in the subject but I do read about it. We can observe high unemployment in the US and the EU(specially south) and also the gold prices are dangerously climbing. This are characteristic of Kondratiev's winter. In order to prevent the stagnation seems like the US and EU are injecting trillions into the economy to force themselves out of the winter. This in my opinion will create inflation and sooner or later a market crash since many are seeking refuge in stocks. But after that crash I think a new cycle will start.
There are so many things going on, it is really hard to predict and understand. I personally think that the best is to be cautious, regardless I am a fan of Kondratiev, I avoid trying to time things and I invest only based on intrinsic value. I think BT is a very strong company that has 35% of the broadband share in the UK and I am very confident that it will survive a recession. We should use this opportunity to buy cheap as much as we can of good stocks like BT before the inflation arrives like is already happening in the US.-
Graet post Fleccy completely agree
Then you defo don't want to read Kondratiev then Fleccy as it'll just depress you.
I was asking the poster if he studied Kondratiev as he chose him as his moniker. I haven't read his theories in full. What is now is not new but has been before and repeats on endless cycles. Wars etc., ie., there is nothing new under the sun about sums up his work.
I've read the much admired thick War and Peace- like books 'Into the Upwave' by Bob Beckham whose work was based on him.
In the 1920's Kondratiev's fame as an economist was such that Stalin brought him in to advise as he wanted to hear on the likelyhood of the USA's demise as Kondratiev's work was seen in retrospect to predict the 1929 crash era but Kondratiev told him that it is an essential part of democratic democracies survival that their stockmarkets crashed when necessary to rebirth and start over clearing out the deadwood with a mighty bang. On hearing that western democracies ie., the USA would recover from endless economic crashes he sent Kondratiev to a Siberian gulag imprisonment as punishment for suggesting capitalism would survive regular economic meltdowns - where Kondratiev suffered greatly and eventually die there in terrible conditions on Stalin's orders. His work still survives to this day just Google the name. Only know of Kondratiev from other books using his work.
"If so, have you any views on the assertion that we are now in the final sixth cycle characterised by the long touted, psychosocial health and biotechnology era"
I don't know what that is Velo, but i do think the world is going through some sort of collective madness. Most of it is Geopolitical and stoked by social media. Brexit's one example, the vote itself was a decision, the madness was the attempts to derail it, with certain politicians and press trying everything to reverse democracy. Another example is the US drifting into a cold war mentality toward China, with TikTok being the latest casualty. The US has outdone itself this time, whatever the motive it looks as though Trump as gone full on Gangster toward TikTok and partnered up with Microsoft to shyster TikTok's US business. Reminds me of the story around Microsoft acquiring MSDOS at the start of the business.
There are tons of other examples, like SNP in Scotland, Catalonia in Spain, Russia annexing the Crimea, etc, etc, etc.
If it all does kick off, there's no safe place for anyone's money. Even Gold isn't safe, if crooks don't nick it, the Government might. My view is just carry on as normal and hope the World maintain's a stable measure of sanity.
Velo
“so, have you any views on the assertion that we are now in the final sixth cycle characterised by the long touted, psychosocial health and biotechnology era, that lasts 60 years commencing in 1990 and includes 2020 "winter" and lasting to 2050 so will bin economies at the drop of a hat on delusional responses to health matters? Followed by World Wars and permanent changes to society? Which accounts for Trump, Brexit and the likes of Hong Kong protestors and the growth of left wing groups we're now seeing gaining power and influence?“
______________________
I think BT will eventually turn the corner but there’re no cures for the psychological disorder that compels you to post such utter trash.
You’re suffering from mauvaise foi - the philosophical term used to describe human beings, under pressure from social forces, who adopt false values and disown their innate freedom, and therefore act inauthentically - closely related to the concepts of self-deception and ressentiment.
You may think you're impressing people with your psycho babble but to me it’s just an example of a world class Ass pretending to be smart - as well as an underlying personality disorder.
Toff
"tooting and doing today"
Tsk! Auto correct LOL!
Tooing and frowing Today!!!
If so, have you any views on the assertion that we are now in the final sixth cycle characterised by the long touted, psychosocial health and biotechnology era, that lasts 60 years commencing in 1990 and includes 2020 "winter" and lasting to 2050 so will bin economies at the drop of a hat on delusional responses to health matters? Followed by World Wars and permanent changes to society? Which accounts for Trump, Brexit and the likes of Hong Kong protestors and the growth of left wing groups we're now seeing gaining power and influence?
@ Kondratiev
- Hi Kondratiev,
With all my tooting and doing today missed catching on to your ID moniker.
Does that mean you are a fan of Long Wave theory? Do you study him?
If so you must be aware of his greatest adherent the much missed now long departed Bob Beckham (got all his huge books).
Or is your ID moniker just by chance?
Long wave theory
Ofcoures is oversold. I have calculated the intrinsic value of BT Group using the discounted Cash Flow technique and the real value of this company is around 2.54 pounds(254p). It's being a while since this company is oversold, in my opinion is a good bargain, I have been buying it for some months already, bought more today and I will buy more if keeps falling. The historic low I think is in around 74p, but in anycase I am not buying it for the SP I am buying it for the dividend.
Only from earlier today, has the SP now (barely) entered a very mild oversold condition.
Most would think after the speed of the gigantic fall last Friday it must be oversold already, but it didn't - it closed sitting on it, a fraction of a fraction above it.
Gut feeling might make you say of course it's oversold - but technically it wasn't - until today. This is Day One of absolute oversold condition.
I too, was gobsmacked it didn't cross over on Friday as it was already lowering - even before the trading day started on Friday!
Doesn't matter anyway, as it means some relief from this current retrace will be approaching and next change is that of entering it's use by date. Any hedge funds algo's will already be aware of it, and would be needlessly throwing funds away if shorting, as it signals they're on their own, with panicky sellers nearly reaching exhaustion point.
Doesn't matter if the oversold is mild or severe - they (mostly) all end the same. The last mild near-oversold condition - well it never crossed into oversold at all, but descended to near it (not as far as today for example) was in the 2nd week of May and was a couple of points away from the oversold border, but when it turned from such a dungeon area the result was the same as always; after flooring intraday at 98 that day (it actually closed several pence higher at 102) it thereafter went on a bull run - all the way to 128-ish.
Some may recall I took advantage of the new trend lines and went long, but having messed up a month or two earlier, I waited and waited for confirmation after confirmation and only then bought. And whilst in profit, I went and doubled my position when at 126 - but by the late afternoon I feared I'd made a bad mistake doubling up as subconsciously I had toyed with selling or part selling the profits.
Within a further 24 hours I realised it was defo a mistake, and foolishly waited days before finally the inevitable and sold for now a smallish £200 loss - but the point is - after just coming near to oversold, just being down there, eventually induced a reversal - and up the price came.
That's the similar condition right now.
It is only fractionally into oversold, which is not even in the same league as any of the others in the past 5 years of oversold conditions in BT, but no matter, it always signals: eventually after the pain comes the relief.
Question is, how long, in and around, this oversold condition that lasts; after watching most of them on here for years, I'd guesstimate only a couple of weeks at most, down to sometimes days. Can last a month now and then. Or like back in May - will it be a quick one and reverse out speedily?
Anyone's guess really but entering oversold always signals approaching exhaustion of the bears, always (well 99% always:)
So days or weeks or a month-ish? No one knows for sure, just a matter of letting the oversold condition mature to exhaustion.
I just take a walk down the road, I've been doing a lot of walking lately. Here's one from this morning lol.
https://postimg.cc/7bcNzGs7