The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks TL,
Hee LOL! - HL is one of my own portfolio broker's. Only ever look at it when buying/selling or valuations.
Shares magazine I get free each week as a curtesy freebie bonus from another of my other ISA brokers - At least a full year and a half behind in reading them LOL!
Perhaps there's something I need to click to receive the broker updates, but my inboxes are under constant assault, so better not :)
The full range of analysts updates provided by BT itself, is the finest coverage of any company anywhere in the world IMO
(Wish the LSE regulators would make it mandatory for at least the FTSE350 to copy BT and provide similar data on their sites). Wouldn't kill them to do so. It's all done for them by the House brokers. An office junior could copy paste the lot up, onto their websites.
Velo
Velo. Here they are - on the HL website.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/bt-group-plc-ordinary-5p/broker-forecasts
I also received the equivalent information from Shares Magazine's daily brokers' updates e-mail yesterday evening.
Regards
HHi @ " Questions.........What is the total debt of BT? What is EE worth? What is BT + global services worth? What is BT TV + Sport worth? What is OR worth? "
--------------------------
Why don't you ask hard questions, instead? :)
Rhetorical questions there I assume, HHi?
Just fast/skimmed through 190 odd pages on BT's site and they only give data for these headings:
Consumer
Enterprise
Global Services
Openreach
Other.
If there is a breakdown on the bits you mention then they're elsewhere in the 190 pages.
What is known:
I have net debt easily to hand for the current year ending as £19.6b (Massive increase on last year's £11.996b)
Pension deficit I have only last year's figure of £7.23b
So by total debt maybe that's those two added to get circa £26b+ ?
Enterprise Value of the entire BT group is £37.81b it includes debt and other stuff - (Market Cap at current SP is £19.11b) Pension deficit's are never included in those (I think).
So on the open market the BOD would turn down any offers that were less than double the current SP M/Cap (£37b v £19.6b) And that's if they thought 190p+ was a fair price in the first place - they don't! So you could double it again, then they might start talking as double the current SP only pays off the debt and leaves shareholders with 190-odd per share. Will Labour most likely see 190p-odd as "fair"?
Jansen said in the media:
"On Friday morning, Mr Jansen told the BBC that the nationalisation was likely to be at a “deep discount” to the current share price,"
So if he's right, bang goes 190-odd equivalent BT would receive if that's the price on the day it all happens - If.
The rest is too hard to calculate on what's available in the public reports. Even the best experts value Openreach as between £12b to £25b - they can't agree on a closer figure. Earnings of Openreach are approx 22% of BT groups entire earnings.
Of the above, here's what Labour say they want:
Openreach
Enterprise
Consumer
and parts of BT Technology.
That would leave from the official list:
Other
Global Services
and whatever BT Technology remains, whatever that is, as it's not delineated in the reports.
Or to quote Labour themselves:
"However, Labour said that it would leave other parts of the business in private ownership; EE, Plusnet, BT Global Services, BT TV and other non-broadband divisions."
Here's another way of looking at things - the number of employees per division.
Consumer = 19.7m
Enterprise = 13.4m
Global Services = 16.6m
Openreach = 33.2m
Other = 23.8m
TOTAL = 106.7m employees (Last year's accounts).
So I roughly calculate that as, BT losing 65%+ as a minimum of all it's employees. Just a ball park employee figure to maybe establish what kind of business BT would be left with. From 106.7m down to 30m+
In other words BT would lose 2/3rds of it's entire workforce.
Boris wins
Brexit goes through
Tory support telcos with £5b
Where will the sp be ?
Velo
I total agree the sp is being held back , let's hope it breaks free and shoots up
TL @
". . . In my view, the BT share price is being held back by three valuations, which were introduced yesterday, these being:
Barclays Capital - Underweight, 160p (downgrade); Deutsche Bank - Sell, 165p (reiteration); and UBS - Neutral, 165p (reiteration) . . . "
---------------------
Those 3 brokers are part of the coterie of House brokers that include BT as one of 'theirs' on their books.
Yesterday (Monday) you say?
Was expecting the full 20 brokers update on Q3 by the 14th of this month latest, but left drumming my fingers waiting. So although checked this morning, raced over again after reading your post, and still no update since the 25th Oct!
As they are part of the overall House brokers that monitor BT, I can only assume BT have all the brokers forecasts to hand and are in the process of kicking them into shape for publication on their site as highly unlikely 3 key brokers would publicly release separately from the others? Or would they? Perhaps BT is waiting for the laggards to hand in their homework before publishing, to all intents and purposes, the "market's" latest views?
Whatever, something is well out of normal with them on this occasion.
Where did you see those 3 specific broker updates yesterday TL - was it on Research Tree or similar?
20 brokers? This morning noticed only 19 listed as one has done a bunk. Deutsche Bank hasn't ceased as a broker just yet, despite publicly announcing it is closing down the analyst arm of their business. So can't work out whether it's a broker from the lower end, or one from the bullish end of averages that's done a bunk.
My current view: Net profit a cause for celebration increasing year after year until near rivalling highest levels of years ago. But Revenue a continuing cause for concern, to decline year after year, well into future years. On the last analysts forecast update, they had this full year net profit to close as a serious decrease (hence the big retrace back in August, down to a smidgen below 160; no other reason).
By non-analyst TTM methods it's showing as considerably UP further than revealed at H1, by this financial year end.
Waiting to see if confirmed by analysts, or whether they've had wind of Labour's plans beforehand and have thrown their own forecasts into disarray. Would rather they stalled until after the 12th Dec in that case, as I have tremendous net profit showing on my screen, year after year, into the near future.
(Q3 concludes at the end of Dec by the way - so hurry up BT/analysts :)
Just need latest analysts forecasts to confirm as they badly underestimated net profit in Q1 and Q2, but on the other hand they got declining revenue in Q1 & Q2 spot on.
H hi. As nobody has replied then perhaps you should google it all for yourself.
Questions.........
What is the total debt of BT?
What is EE worth?
What is BT + global services worth?
What is BT TV + Sport worth?
What is OR worth?
OR must be sold to a wealthy pension fund ASAP!
Heavy, has Boris been making threats to take over BT?, must have missed that !. The Tory party have always left business to run itself, they have no need to start "Nationalising" anything they don't agree with. You only have to think about the damage done when the marxists start threatening to simply purloin companies from their rightful owners... that's US... the shareholders. Look at BT so far.
You probably don't hold shares in BT, but many others do and can see what will happen if corbyn, mcdonnell and abbot get their grubby hands on power. Armageddon.
It is much better to hand BT over to a member of the Bullingdon club noted for their financial management skills.Boris was an excellent foreign secretary on top of his brief in his dealing with Iran.He built a bridge in London when he was mayor that tourist flock to see.It is his version of the Loch Ness monster.Very hard to get a glimpse of.But it will be ok his rich cronies are not an idle sort.They are born to lead the common folk.
djf, what a peculiar view you have. You say no blame should be attached to Labour, what about the note "Theres no money left" after they had squandered everything?. You mention the gutter press, well they certainly back corbyn and his idiots, the guardian and mirror are soooo in love with him.
You would personally take a financial hit if it meant no majority for Boris Johnson, I think you speak only for yourself. Any investor wants to increase their wealth, not simply hand it over to corbyn to distribute to the feckless and idle sorts he supports. What possible advantage could there be to having another hung Parliament with the garden gnome being able to obstruct and interfere with the running of the country?, now he and his cronies are the evil bunch of toerags.
BT has been hit hard by the threats of corbyn and his financial illiterates simply stealing shareholders money, just think what the labour marxist would do to the rest of the market, scary.
TLW, and so another spurious blaming of the global crash on Blair / Brown. This old chestnut gets peddled so often. Anyone with any knowledge knows the origins of the crash (sub prime etc.) but it should not be blamed on New labour. Their management of it can certainly be criticised but if blams is to be dished out, previous administrations deregulation of banks is a more fitting target. Those will longer memories will remember the tory years of boom and bust. labour will not win of course. The gutter press are taking care of that but I for one would personally take a financial hit to if it meant no majority for Johnston and his evil bunch of toerags.
skier1. I agree with your views concerning Corbyn and his alocytes, and view them as a real threat to this country's prosperity if elected. Unfortunately, the electorate (in particular younger voters) have a very short memory about the economic chaos that resulted from twelve years of the Blair/Brown administration. Your description of the current state of the Labour party is funny, but unfortunately has a ring of truth about it. Our share portfolios will dive if this extremely left-leaning group of individuals is elected.
BT shares have collapsed -85% this century and shareholders are obviously desperate for anything that might help to regain their pride and cash -- no matter how spurious.
The reality is, state theft of private companies by extremist communist regimes never ends well. For example, Venezuela stole US oil companies in 2010 and they are pretty much all bankrupt in 2019.
Any whiff that Corbyn is nearing No.10 will send BT shares down under £1 in a flash.
The scenario of Albert Steptoe and his undisciplined mob of overpromoted polytechnic students running advanced fibre for 70 million people simply does not bear thinking about. You're looking at red unions controlling your Internet, endless strikes, and blackouts.
Thankfully, Boris is now polling almost half the national vote, so commie Corbyn's reckless egomania can do no damage. With luck, Corbyn will be resigned and gone by this time next month.