The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tiburn - at the time Stena were in negotiations POO was close to floor and confidence low - the market for future drilling was decidedly shaky - about this time Koot struck a deal with Saffron 1 drill team to drill Saffron 2 at their risk with their cash in return for share of profits, it was, however, subject to WTI remaining over $35 for a substantial period .
I'm not privy to the chats between Stena and BPC but, as mentioned earlier, finances of BPC were well known as was the drilI affordability I do think it's likely Stena said if POO is over $x and other conditions remain same we'll throw our hat in with minimum $x million, max $10 million but we're not disclosing our final stance until nearer the time hence the flexible rns .
We'll know all soon - trolls can say it's worth nothing unless it's in a rns - Koot proved Dross wrong by actions - he was confident cos he had established relationships with contractors - troll dross never apologised for getting it wrong !
In4cedros
Interesting points on the Stena 10% for $10m deal
Could this have been a negotiated position, towards MoU or AIP pending full agreement - or just the offer on the table from BPC with no real bartering /discussion, for Stena to take away and consider.
if negotiated implies more than a passing interest by Stena and approval potentially more of a formality, what they get form it less of an issue at this stage perhaos than BPC get the crucial $10m
Add that to the pot and P#2 negotiated rate back to back drills looks viable.
time aswell before May and the GoM contract.
Dross - unfortunately you have real difficulty thinking outside the box which is why you foolishly persisted with the assertion that Koot wouldn't be drilling Saffron without a Placing and lost all credibility.
We don't know all the chat that went on when Stena took the job - they clearly knew BPC financials then and worst case scenario was BPC might struggle for optimum financing package by time of drill so that their assistance might be needed to smooth ball over the line - the inclusion of the option in the rns was a clear signal to the market that the possibility of their involvement had been discussed - clearly they weren't averse to the idea.
I'm not guaranteeing Stena financial involvement but seems to be in their long term interest to be in on the ground floor - wouldn't that accord with business acumen?
CoMan, it's good to talk. Things are much clearer to me now having been made aware of a c. 60 day work program and it all seems to all fit nicely. I would have thought if fabrication work is required to the davits, which will no doubt have it's niggles like all jobs do, plus all the other statutory work required and then approvals from the DNV's of this world, then I think Stena will wait until they are about half way (30 days) into their program before declaring anything to BPC. It's far too early now and any hitches would require renotifications and then it all starts to look like people don't know what they're doing, no one will want to be in that position.
30 days from now takes us to 17th October, which is roughly inline with the first decision that needs to be made on the Bizzell CLN (15th Oct). I think what will happen with the Bizzell CLN is that the unconditional subscription option will be taken for the smaller amount, deferring the big decision until 15th November, this will be approximately when the IceMAX is due to sail and most things in play will be known by then.
When you look at it like this it's almost like there's a plan, the missing piece to the puzzle to understanding this was the 60 days information. Thank you very much.
All my speculation of course from a very rough bit of working out.
CoMan
Thank you.
About as good an input as we have had for many a month!
My sphericals are somewhat relaxed - whilst all disclaimers are recognized..
Thank you again.
GL
IK
XX
interestking....gut feel I'd say the rig will be ready to leave Las Palmas around the last week of November which would put it in The Bahamas around mid December. They will have to load all the BPC equipment - wellheads, casing, bulk materials for mud and cement, mix mud etc prior to spudding - that's easily 4 or 5 days work. I'd say they could comfortably be ready to spud around a week after arriving on location so getting towards the end of December. This assumes that BPC have the necessary supply vessels to get everything to the location to meet the rig - if not they may sail the rig to somewhere like Port Fourchon in the states 1st to load up then return to location. They also need to hook up the 3rd party containers - mud logging unit, directional unit etc and I'd hope that is being done in Las Palmas as that could be 2 weeks work.
jim...what you say about the POB makes perfect sense
Robbla
Having the farm in option does not really prove that Stena are interested in more than “digging”: having it in the contract costs them nothing after all and they would feel pretty stupid if they refused to have it in the contract and oil then hit $100 before the option would have expired, unlikely though $100 oil is anytime soon.
CoMan.
P.S.
Just so I put my spherical bits on the line:
I believe financials will be divulged in the next 6 weeks.
GL
IK
XX
CoMan
You obviously know what you are talking about.
Do you have any sense of timing for Las Palmas departure and eventual Spud?
Yep I know that is $64000?
But - gut feel?
GL
IK
Xx
CoMan,
Pure speculation on my part and a question to the BB for debate. The IceMAX datasheet states a 180 PoB, upgradable to 220. I wonder if they are taking up this option, not necessarily for the Bahamas drill but more likely for the longer duration Repsol drill, to allow people to self isolate and quarantine on arrival and also to try and get people down to single man cabins if this is not the case already.
Without doubt COVID is going to be a hot topic in any pre-mob campaign preparations and for the longer duration campaigns e.g. the 1 + 3 for Repsol, these big players are going to look to mitigate risks where at all possible.
findme, yes it would be normal that a company like moduspec would be involved but not sure if that is happening here. I believe the well design does requires the managed pressure drilling package to be available. The rig has used the equipment before but part of it it must have been removed as it's part of the reactivation plan to re-install it. Given that the majority of the equipment would be integrated with the rig and therefore would not have been removed I wouldn't imagine its that big a job to re-instate it.
Coman
Thank you.
appreciate your work.
GL
IK
XX
no problem Interesking, on my previous project we managed to keep an exploration rig similar to the Icemax operational through to completion of the project in July, very challenging in the current environment but with proper quarantine rules in place etc all doable - I'm sure Stena will be doing something similar regarding quarantine before going on the rig.
pageofcups -I'd say it's unlikely that anything on the reactivation programme would prevent Stena stating the rig is ready by 1st November, even if only one BOP is ready then - you only need one for drilling
It is possible that a company such s ModuSpec will have been hired to carry out a survey to make sure the rig is fit for purpose, then the company will work through any recommendations.
The well design may require that specific equipment will need to be installed over and above what the vessel normally carries.
CoMan
Thanks for the insight - very useful from a Pro.
One thing from a non Pro I would add is that The World has been in “Lockdown” for 6 fmonths and things aint been normal.
Lest we forget!
I hasten to add that is in no way a criticism of your comments - just an add on to some of the other non - pros I.e. derampers here.
GL
IK
XX
CoMan, thanks for the reply. Stena will not be able to confirm the drillship is ready in enough time if they have to do all that work. They only have until the 1st November at the very very latest to confirm the commencement notice that the rig is ready for drilling. If they don't, then a penalty of $7.5m will be paid to BPC. All sounds a bit too close for comfort, imho.
sorry, not sure why they are changing them but that would make sense although it would be strange not to have existing capacity in the lifeboats to match accommodation POB capability
CoMan - are they changing the lifeboats to increase the POB? Assuming you know that detail.
jim - as far as I know they are installing new Davits
pageofcups - it would be normal to go through a reactivation period to go and work for a new client even if the rig had only been stacked for 6 months although I thought it had been stacked a bit longer than that. The rig has been warm stacked but still requires reactivation, I don't think there is a significant amount of work on any of the drilling related equipment however it would be normal to take at +/- 3 weeks to perform a full maintenance programme on a BOP so that would mean 6 weeks just for BOP work.
If Stena didn’t want the at least the option to entertain 10% and were just interested in ‘digging’ then they would have refused the option. I’m pretty sure they would have completed their own due-dilly in weighing up the offer/option.
CoMan, that's great and feels very close to what we believe our timeline is.
c. 60 days work takes us to 17th Nov.
I estimate about 26 days at sea for crossing, taking us to c. 13th Dec.
CoMan, was the drillship not in operation earlier this year? The rig has only been out of operation since April and in that time I'm sure systems were kept activated. The drillship hasn't been cold stacked which would indicate the need for a reactivation. I can understand some service maintenance and equipment checking, but reactivating is a completely different thing.
Does anyone who has a bit of industry knowledge and has been following Stena in greater detail know if the lifeboat works requires modification to the davits or is it straight change out of the boats? And why are they being changed and is the whole fleet due the same scope or only the IceMAX?
the rig reactivation programme is projected t take +/- 60 days, main workshop is life boats (as mentioned) managed pressure drilling re-installtion (equipment required for the Bahamas) and most likely there will be a considerable workscope on getting both BOPs ready. During this time they will also be performing maintenance/testing on all the drilling related equipment. The rig is expected to leave Las Palmas late November.
Would be peculiar to offer Stena an option of 10% if it wasn't wanted or asked for, imo