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Back in early 2016 when Brent bottomed at $28, and BP bottomed at 305p, youd have expected BP to cut costs to future proof the company? The drops we are witnessing certainly seems to be some institutions selling out certain asset classes, as its hard to hide large sell orders, the market seems to be obliging and ensuring they sell out as low as possible.
FTSE pretty much flat, oil pretty much flat from yesterday close, BP. down. Market drops the price to see if the forced sellers want to continue to sell - check. Clearly a squeeze going on, chart looks ripe for a rebound, it hasnt had a single monthly positive in 13 months! Capitulation approaching.
Darien - you are right. Looney needs to deliver come Tuesday.
He set out on a vision (which tbh makes sense in the long term) but there was no substance behind what he set out. Other than the fact that we need to be more environmentally friendly which, in reality most of the world knows (regardless on if they agree/disagree).
If he doesnt show up this Q then we can expect this SP to drop further.
Hoping it holds out in the 190 range until then....
Gavster - it seems like many are expecting a divi cut as the yields are pretty decent at this SP.
It seems like BP were very reluctant to cut divi back in in August (based on a radio interview with looney last month - that's the impression he gave anyway!)
Well GAv, I have to confess Ive just bout in you cant ignore a roughly 8% divi and it is still pumping oil out at a profit in bucket loads...the downside is that they have a high production cost so ay drip in oil prices does have a big effect on operating profit and that LOONEY is living up to his name by making stand alone statements that spook the market he needs to get back on the PR trail and sort his own PR mess out of resign. Some clarity on the forecast profitability over the next 5 years and how they transition show us a fecking plan you LOONEY
Thanks darientaylor
Yes, I stand corrected with overly dismissing what happened in Q2, but the point rephrased remains, has there been any bad news since ? Oil went back up to a level that keeps BP profitable. Those write-offs can only happen once. Bond's have been issued. The market looks to have priced in a dividend cancellation.
@Gavster - How much did you buy at £2? I understand in terms of not trying to guess the curve but when it went below £2 the curve was obviously down in the short term at least , although anyone’s guess as to now below so yeah could have just been £1.98. Anyways good luck with the trade .
there has been no bad news just bad sentiment... really??? did you read the first qtr report, let me remind you of the highlights straight copy and paste so you dont think I'm making it up
Underlying replacement cost loss for the quarter was $6.7 billion, compared with a profit of $2.8 billion for the same period a year earlier. The result was driven primarily by non-cash Upstream exploration write-offs - $6.5 billion after tax - principally resulting from a review of BP's long-term strategic plans and revisions to long-term price assumptions, combined with the impact of lower oil and gas prices and very weak refining margins, reduced oil and gas production and much lower demand for fuels and lubricants. Oil trading delivered an exceptionally strong result.
- Reported loss for the quarter was $16.8 billion, compared with a profit of $1.8 billion for the same period a year earlier, including a net post-tax charge of $10.9 billion for non-operating items. This included $9.2 billion in post-tax non-cash impairments across the group largely arising from the revisions to its long-term price assumptions and $1.7 billion of post-tax non-cash exploration write-offs treated as non-operating items.
These have to be positive, there has been no bad news just bad sentiment. These should make BP a very attractive buy for yield and now growth.
I bought yesterday at £2. I've given up trying to guess the base of the curve, so all my buys are long term as I'm banking on the dividend remaining and these can be reinvested. My average is terrible as I'm one of the many that did not see such a shorting and selling attack into BP/Shell and decided to hold. Overall I'm hedged by other investments but this is not ideal in any way.
Will there be UK stimulus in the same way as the USA ? IMO There has to be another 50 to 100 billion printed up to pump into the economy, not just to keep peoples lives on a lockdown pause, but to stem the UK market from a Covid-19 demise kicked in the teeth by a looming Brexit, which will be good for BP and all companies accounting in US$, but not the FTSE as a whole.
The Bank Of England has called for drastic action, to stem this flow. Will, when and how will this recommendation be followed ? Some devaluing of the GBP and the dollar rate going down again to circa 1.20 / 1.25 will be a welcome boost as it was a few months back.