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Ok but I still think the Acast listing and valuation was the trigger for recent uplift - on acast metrics Boom seriously undervalued and I expect investors in Acast May just have had Boom bought to their attention….
I didn’t mean that this wasn’t potentially price sensitive - more that it was less likely to be a leak - those are more common with deals and funding where lots of people have to be told. Here it would just be the board and I don’t think this board has been leaky since RP moved on and new management came in
Jetset, It doesn't have to be a deal or a funding round, just information that can impact the share price which it clearly has in the last two days. Guidance is clearly at the stupid end of conservative as you have pointed out, but to have smashed the numbers so completely out of the park is more than just optimistic expectations and was not priced in y the market. Admittedly a lot of grey areas.
I fully expect another upgrade when they release the results for Q3. It is clear that the upgrades are very conservative but I suppose it is better to keep it low and surprise on the upside than disappoint. Most people expected them to smash the previous upgrade and now they have booked over 99% of that upgrade which means that they already have a booked revenue of over $40Mill. Q4 is the best quarter seasonally and they still have not released the premium adverts for Q4, so my expectations this year is for a revenue of about $50Mill.
With respect I would disagree - this isn’t a deal or funding round, it is just that they continue to smash through the brokers forecasts - if anyone is surprised by this then they haven’t been following the stock or the industry - personally I would not be at all surprised if they continue to beat revised expectations and have to keep steering the market higher but I do not think that makes me an insider!!!
If Audioboom has not been acquired by this time next year, then I would not mind if they do a share split. [My expectation is that we will have been acquired as there are less and less independent podcast companies of note. ] A share split will bring more liquidity to the shares, makes it easier to trade and the share price less frightening. A 16Mill shares in issue is fairly small for a company so a meagre market cap of about £300 Mill will translate to a frightening £20 share price.
The current TO projection for this year now puts the acquisition target price north north of £20. This sounds crazy ....mainly because I can hardly believe that myself. I am not supposed to have a share worth £20 a pop! Easier to envisage if you look at if from a market cap perspective and that would mean an Audioboom market cap of just North of £300Mil. Plenty of penny stocks with billions of share worth more than that even though they have a price between between 1-2p.
The high share price is a direct function of the fact that there are only 16 Million shares outstanding. If we had 100,000,000 share outstanding and the share price was £3.20 no one will bat an eyelid or think it was crazy.
Thanks Shedit, I actually think it was before then. It was after the confirmation that the company has not concluded a sale agreement when the price was probably below £2 and what I thought "some buffoon" was rabbiting on about these will be at £8 shortly, I couldn't have been more wrong.
I believe this has still far to go based on a few indicators: 1. None of the significant holders thinks it is time to cash in so they clearly still expect significant uplift from here. 2. Management still acquiring shares so again they feel that it is still very good value. 3. Share price fully justified else management would have been forced to make a statement to the market that they see no reason for the sudden price increase over the last few days. That is the normal expectation by the stock market when a stock share price runs ahead of itself.
"Q4 2020 revenue of $8.5m is a 30% increase over Q3 2020 revenue of $6.5m And in Q4 the loss was $200,000 So if we push those figures over 12 months then we get income of $34m and costs of $35m, so if in FY 2021 BOOMs income was $40m they would make about $5m profit. With a P/E of 20 that will value the company at $100m or £4.70 a share
These projection figures are quite modest IMHO, so if FY 2021 income was $50m with a P/E of 20 we would be looking at about £14 a share
This is just a projection based on today’s RNS figures, all very much IMHO, so please DYOR
Maverick, same here - sold at want in hindsight were low prices but have a £20k holding at zero cost. I remember questioning a poster on this board who I thought was just a ramper as the share price projections just seemed fanciful half a year ago. Everything he / she said has happened - will have to look up the name to follow other tips.
some chunky late reported BUYs this morning, 3 around the £44k mark and one around the £36k mark but because they pop up late they are called SELLs on the trading page, when you look at the bid/ask at the time of the trade they are clearly BUYs
And some folk laughed at me valuing this at £7 when it was at £2, they are not laughing now!
When you consider the price that Wondery was sold for at the turn of the year and also the mcap at IPO of another US podcaster whose name escapes me in recent weeks, an equivalent value for BOOM would be in the £13 per share region. It is worth nearing in mind though that BOOM has better numbers than Wondery, has become EDITDA profitable in Q1 this year and as the best independent podcaster still standing is an obvious takeover target for a number of potential predators. With Tobin buying shares again on the open market last week, it all looks positive.
Well I sold 25% at £ 4.50 and another 25% at £6.60 the rest are now riding on an outcome here. Clearly a £14 figure is the benchmark (would be great to get there having held these for years well before the consolidation).
I wonder what would happen if there were to be a takeover battle. £16-£19 now that would really put smiles on all the LTH faces and well deserved too.