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They will want full FFD in place to have drained Chuditch by 2030-35 when the game
changes to blue and green clean gas , for all the major nations of the region
Japan and Korea , already paying its top companies millions, to source such assets now
Australia have started converting its refineries to hybrids to deal with a mix already, so
the transition will be smooth when the time comes
IF
the issue of , Gas having a home to go to , forget 2023 , a Tier 1 or Major will fast track
drilling within months, especially if its Shell , already having drilled and mapped the
entire license , unlike Baron, they know and had a plan in the 90's and another in
2009, all in their archives , will Baron be part of it , or taken out if that scenario comes
about is the question ?
Agreed Teaye - and the claim by a certain poster of no drilling till 2023 is simply irrelevant which is not true anyway!
Even if they don't start drilling until 2023 (into an asset which even the majors have confirmed is there), there will be enough news to take this through the roof.
Just a matter of time and patience.
yeah no drilling before 2023 min!
lol
and after all that the other one comes back , guess someone reported it and it
came back with a clean FACT health check
:))
My earlier post disappeared it seems but as said Shell 90's all of license makes
Chuditch way bigger than boils playing catch up figures and the main event is
having a home for the stranded for 20 years gas to go to
Then , they will be all over us like a rash , asset value, like Sunrise next door goes from
on Woodside books currently $0.00 to $65-$75 BILLION (per March report)
Fingers crossed , one of them takes early mover advantage , a monetisation path has
to come this time or the bid round will continue to be a bust.
Beaco will find a funder/operator and become a reality this time , they will not get a third
bite at the cherry, if not 20 year available other options have to be finally permitted by
the Island
Or as they have said themselves , they face serious financial hardship, from 2028-2030
when the current band aid's (Bayu/Buffalo) also run out of revenues, both only small
left over reserves being chased , from main reservoir depleted fields.
The new 3 field , Sunrise 1.6bboe , Chuditch as big or bigger (per shell) and the massive
Kelp 14.5 tcf 2.46 bboe (no license/current operator) , giving around 30 TCF 5.1 bboe
potential , has to draw someone in, to fund Beaco Tasi Mane this time surely
:))
Much bigger mcadder , Shell had it more than twice that size in the 90's , Baron
still playing catch up, still playing , on only one side of the license.
Shell mapped , seismic , the whole 3,700 sq km and successfully drilled CH-1
in 1998, their prelims over 5 tcf (850mboe) which they suspected much bigger
as the Chuditch , Wombat and Bilby (now all Chud various) reservoirs suspected
all one massive reservoir , if so double it
Shell, also mapped the South West side of the license and reported further leads,
which they suspected , either OIL or very large Condensate reservoirs
MUCH MUCH upside to Chuditch and potential suitors , the industry have known
about it all this time BUT like Sunrise ready to produce for 20 years , gas stranded
until the Island , builds or permits it a home to go to
:((
New proposal for Beaco , imo a winner , last attempt very lame and got no regional player
interested in building it and the pipeline to the Island. Time running out (2030-2035) to
maximise their returns , before blue and green gas projects take over the world.
This time ,has to be a firm commitment to build Beaco Tasi Mane Export/LNG facilities ,port
and pipeline, or allow the sector to do what it has wanted for 20 years , OZ pipelines or
FLNG Super-Barge (12 years)
Gas , will come back to life , one way or another
:))
"The ongoing sophisticated technical work and the scale of the mean Prospective Resources, now independently evaluated to be an aggregate of 592MMBOE (gross), are believed to be of a sufficient level to attract the interest of major regional gas players and other potential funding partners."
Trade this one now at your peril. Significant upside here with a fast closing window before material progress lands and catches many out
Power supply has been a problem , with the Island , currently looking to upgrade
the 3 stations on site , to convert to gas , supplied from a what was to be combined
Beaco import/export LNG facility , the two where separated and the import LNG is
in government motion
News end of October , the strain to be taken up by funding for new electricity supplies
for regional use, the support facilities , new ports etc , will all put strain on the current
labouring system , so hopefully plenty of juice for the , large scale construction that
will be required if Beaco export/lng fac and port built.
ADB approves Timor-Leste power loan
Published 29 October 2021 Last Updated 29 Oct 2021 03:06
Tags Power Asia Pacific
Sophia Thomson
Asian Development Bank has approved a $35 million loan to assist in providing
renewable and reliable sources of electricity to 12 districts in Timor-Leste
HFB, booked my flight to Cairo, no more middlemen, going direct to where the finest cotton is housed..
Cheers...
Shuston
the 100% was based on the fact they had already done mapping 2d seismic and successfully
drilled discovery well CH-1
The original run of KYRANIS 3D was ok but Trench floor ghosting , left doubts about depth and
they also thought all the reservoirs near CH-1 (only area Baron has looked at) where possibly
one vast single reservoir , they had over 5 tcf BUT if all connected that could double.
Shell also had multiple leads to the South West of the license , which they though either OIL
or more likely LARGE condensate reservoirs , under more gas
So its a monster and has been known to be so for a long time.
Just needs a home to go to and only the Island can make that happen
2002 Sunrise to pipe to Darwin , Woodside's own facility from 2003/04 - Island said NO
2008 Sunrise to be produced on site , using Shell developed Super Barge FLNG - NO
Island pushed Beaco , offering to all regional players to build and run - The industry said NO thanks
Island offered the project to the China BRI - No thanks
Island now going for it with Beaco again - will someone say yes this time and fund it
imo YES but if not surely this time will be the last if no takers , OZ/FLNG must be
permitted
:))
Noob
memory just pretty good these days but still pretty impressive for someone who started
trading with methuselah lol
Some light reading for you Noob lol
http://www.laohamutuk.org/
http://www.tatoli.tl/
http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?cat=9&lang=en
http://www.anpm.tl/
https://www.timorgap.com/databases/website.nsf/
https://www.tgs.com/our-data/asia-pacific/asia/timor-leste
https://www.seapex.org/category/regional-meetings-events/
https://www.seapex.org/wp-content/uploads/Abstract/SEC%202019%20Abstracts%20-%20Session%204%20-%20East%20Indonesia%20and%20Timor%20Sea.pdf
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/12/3/woodside-cuts-seismic-processing-time-from-weeks-to-hours-with-amazon-web-services
Mr lol...
Russell Searancke is a person you should research, maybe reach out too...Josh Lewis is also in my Halloween mind...
Chin chin
Noob
that would be the local independent LAHAMOTUK, the other main on Island news
TATOLI and the Government website itself.
Plenty out there and Filtylucre has been monitoring the Gov Facebook which seem to now
be updating earlier than the Gov web pages.
Strangely the 8th? September , when the initial story broke about the Island having another
go at Beaco was in UPSTEAM ONLINE, nothing in the local press etc , until a few weeks later
:))
Great report Eddyc22.
Remember Shell gave Chuditch a 100% probability that resources were there. The only doubt was, how much!
GLA
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=67798
Cheers Shouston appreciate that. The report shook me a bit that’s all. There’s many other informative reports out there and I’ll post one of them that hooked me in on chuditch- it’s quite long and detailed but have a look at figure 17 and the conclusion is a nice sum up. Apologies if it has been linked/posted before folks.
Eddyc22, I make an apology to you. And thanks for the link. Yes we have seen this report before on the current status of O&G in TL. It is a good description of the geopolitical circumstances.
When you stated in your original post, I thought that Baron Oil had written those words, hence my reaction!
The author, Charles Scheiner is a researcher at La’o Hamutuk, the Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and
Analysis, an independent Timor-Leste policy research and advocacy NGO since 2001.
He does not speak for Baron Oil, I believe he has taken the table 2 from an earlier study.
Yes it's true, as part of our licence we have to reinterpret the seismic data, and then drill with partner...?
This BB is one of the best, I do not wish to diminish that.
I see a later thread contains the video of Sundagas explaining our licence area. If you need some reassurance then watch from 1hr5mins.
Like you all, I am speculating that this stranded asset discovered by Shell will see the light of day
Again apologies
GLA
Eddy, good spot man. I'm heavily invested here but that report might give me a few sleepless nights and food for thought. Baron board, I know you read this board so get PR-ring and come out with some news to reassure squeaky bum time. Where is HFB when you need him. Anyway, will hold - hope it comes good. Shouston, love your insights but you've mugged Eddy off a bit there.
Thanks Star, I did see that amendment. Chud is a monster asset and will come good in time. GLA
I’ve been invested in boil for a long time. I read every report on chuditch as due diligence and I am more than happy with the potential of chuditch that’s why I’m invested. When I read this I thought perhaps some of the regular posters such as you shouston who I’ve always considered balanced may have an insight as to why this report may say such a thing but as usual anyone who may puts forward info that questions things gets ridiculed and attacked. GLA
http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/ScheinerTLEconSurveyJune2021en.pdf
It’s the first report on baron webpage listed under Timor hub. Bottom of page 16
Shouston I’m heavily invested in boil and have no agenda to derail this I assure you. I’ll post the link. It was a genuine question as I have read all available reports on chuditch