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As said for a while , imo there will be a decision pre bid round this time
(or its toast again for a 3rd time)
Then what is the Sectors response , they did not like the additional costs of Beaco
last time v either current infrastructure or later when Shell proposed FLNG , which
even Woodside who had built facilities in Darwin specifically for TL ops agreed was
a financially much improved option for its own operations
As for offers without some kind of certainty , we will not get the sort of
offers we would like to see , more likely other chancers looking to get
in cheap and look to sell if things do open back up
The 3 majors and osaka city gas that had sunrise originally spent $400m by 2010
with it being put on care and maint from 2004 due to the Islands no go anywhere
policy , how much is that in 2022 money
Billion dollar project to develop , needs a Major/Tier 1 or few knocking on our door
they all left, the island want them back, we need them back
a ten bagger will be fine but will be disappointed not to see that 50-100 bagger
it should be with the right partner and a permission to monetise the gas. GLA
give us a bump but unless they give a certainty , you can do , rather than you
can not , it makes no odds , we used Shells figs originally , they had 5+ TCF
poss double if all linked around CH-1 Discovery drill and more leads to the
South West , possible 10-15 TCF
Since played snail paced mapping and seismic catch up to cross 3 TCF and here
we still sit under £10m MC , that figure alone is 510 mboe, give that a low 20%
recovery rate 102mbo/e rock bottom £1 a barrel is a 10 bagger alone.
But here we still sit , like shell we can say what we like for OUR own plan , it matters
not if no back up from the Island, the sector and the market will just see it as same
old same old , especially with that 9th September presentation
The Gov WE ARE and Chuditch is included in that master plan as it stands.
They set the ball rolling with a joint 2019 SundaGas/Gov presentation , fingers crossed
they end it with another joint presentation, to confirm not only is Chuditch good to go
but HELLO SECTOR , come and get us and the available licenses.
I know what your saying but I think this time over the past they have no other options to go with the flow with this now. They haven’t got many options left for the island’s income.
natural gas is in such High demand this can’t go in noticed any longer. Once we get the 3d results we will get plenty of offers on the table I’m sure ;)
That's been the whole point for us for the past year and them for the past 20+ years
other options have always been available , the Island have not permitted them to
happen, clinging on to the Islands own industry and local manpower dream.
9th Sept 2021 , WE ARE looking to build Beaco , now using CHUDITCH , sunrise and Kelp
as a combined initial feed to the refinery via a pipeline HUB located at sunrise.
They still cling on to the dream even then , with the bid round not surprisingly being
extended again for lack of quality bidders.
Without their consent , we are in the same boat as Shell and others, all these years
WE ARE going to pipe to Darwin , FLNG Super-barge , then to be shot down by the
Island SAY'S NO
The sector know the score ,hence 9 pre approval bids and 4 under review in 2 1/2
years of a double extended bid round. Likewise the market knows the score
Without their permissions , it remains stranded and worthless gas, be it 3 tcf or 10 tcf
Yeah let’s hope so.
But even if the island don’t get the plant built with a pipeline it’s not a big deal.
All they will need to do is get a FPSO built and have a LNG tankers for offload.
I work on a FPSO in the North Sea so it’s possible and with the asset we have it’s very much commercially viable.
.2 would be very nice to crack for starters. Would still only be 20mil MC 3 bags from here. Seems to easy haha
MC always the key figure not SP
dilution moves the goal posts
Fingers and toes crossed Rob
would like to see some meat on the bones from the Island, without it , its just shades
of Shell and others years ago WE PLAN to , only to get shot down by the Islands
IT WILL COME to us
Expect a pretty self pumping presentation on the 26th , should give us a boost , high
by MC is around 0.20p (only un researched will cry we where 0.6 etc )
So that's the first nugget to break and see what happens next lol
Very much looking forward to next week! the start of the news flow! the single figure bargains won’t last for long. Very happy with my 0.07 average! I’m hoping that we get a rns with some juicy bits in before the presentation! we can only wait and find out! GLA
Lol , round of applause emoji's
you heard it from MP , BUY BUY bye
Forget the upcoming presentation, charts and projections, the big news is that I'm still invested. Act accordingly. Good day.
They will also want things sorted long before the bid round closes, as also looming is
Election Day - 19/03/2022
Bridgedogg because chuditch has already dry been drilled by shell. With 100% chance of success. And it’s proven to be over 3tcf gas.
Boil’s time will come very very soon. I’m loaded and waiting so I’m happy with my sp average
Mapped , drilled and discovery well by Super Major Shell , its a jump start on
virgin territory , quick development and subject to the P word from the Island
a lot quicker into production
As keep saying the seismic's all done , TGS did the entire 50,000 sq km all on
offshore in its new 2D Cubed format (presents like 3d) using every historic
seismic available including our Kyranis 3d
Been available from them (see their website) , was promoted in the 25th March 2021
TL Oil and Gas conference with additional seismic available from gpp and a data room
set up by a UK firm for all potential bidders to view, paid for and arranged by ANPM
The one they should have had hundreds of bidders for is Kelp, on one of the licenses
in the bid round, it currently has, neither license or operator and last estimated GIIP
was 14.5 TCF (the no home factor) and now with Sunrise and Chuditch part of the
new plan for Beaco joint development and production
IF they can get it off the ground this time (announced Sept 2021, if you have a subscription
full article was also in UPSTREAM ONLINE 9th Sept)
off the top of my old bonce , that's all for now , enjoy the rest of the weekend
days to news getting few, 26th hopefully has back up from the Island , otherwise it's
like shell , we hope to pipe to darwin 2003 and we hope to flng in 2009
My thought is why would a major make a deal for part if Chuditch if they can drill there own 100% owned license from the latest round? Surely they can do their own seismics very quickly, 1 drill and they are at the same position we are at?
Thank you HFB. Good to see reference to Strategic Dev Plan document in your link. Great to see such a small poor nation setting an example to the world. I am truly humbled by their professional approach. Lets hope it goes really well for them.
And thank you for your valuable knowledge.
im praying guys on this one - this is a ethical investment so all my prayers will be anwered hopefully
bid round already extended twice since opening Nov 2019
they cant afford to wait until the last minute.
IMO announcement soon and ideally with our presentation 26th
of this month
Bid round closure - March 4th 2022. Not long now to wait! Thank you HFB. miidas
Good question Midas.
I also see the SDGs as per above as something that the gov and political leaders need to satisfy. Together with the SDP, it all has to fit together with the political will harmonising with the need to finance themselves through the long term never mind just 2030.
Hi HFB. Thanks for your reminders of the ultimate prize, potentially available. Please advise when the current bid round is scheduled to close. The financial disappointment following the drill failure by CVN/ADV, in conjunction with the devastating tsunami in near-by Tonga, must surely be concentrating the minds of the TL policy-makers.
Many thanks. miidas
also plenty of seismic already exists for Chuditch , Shells own 2d , regional surveys
by gov and the 3d kyranis done in 2012/13 which is now being snail paced again
using psDm vice psTm processing
Spoiler alert , Chuditch on all of them and successfully drilled the CH-1 well , the only
doubt that remained as shell said in the 90's they believe Chiditch , Bilby and Wombat
(renamed Chud North and South West by SG) ALL linked and one giant gas field
If so their preliminary just over 5 TCF (850mboe) would double, the problem was the
Timor Trench itself , plates rubbing etc , causes a lot of natural heavy vibration which
interfered with the seismic, depth perception and ghosting
The psDm might just confirm that long standing theory, snail paced by Baron as be it
when we used shells figures for failed rto of SG 2 years ago or the more recent one
side of the license CH-1 Drill area , Baron now 3 TCF, without that big partner and
movement its no big deal , as said Kelp sits with 14.5 TCF no operator/license
we could say its double and nothing has really changed
Shell said in the 90's we think its 10 tcf+ or at least as big as Sunrise which ended up
8 TCF plus 250mb condensate or 1500mboe and it remains on Woodside books at $0
Should give us a bump if it does but the 50-100 Mega Multi Bagger as always remains
in the potential to monetise ($50-$75 Billion)
The new studies for Beaco , based on combined development and gas feed
to the plant , using Kelp , sunrise and chuditch from the get go , announced
All passed muster last time the longest taking just under 6 months, it is now 4 1/2
months since the announcement, so imo those results are DUE NOW
They should pretty much all be tweaks of the previous CAN DO studies , the 1 main
difference being the Beaco build, with 3 fields will need more than one string to be
open on commission of gas flows from the proposed Sunrise HUB all will feed into
The original was build the first one for sunrise then keep building 3-4 strings in total
as if/when required
As said , just a bit of tweaking to plans that already existed, 4 1/2 months should have
been ample time for them to be tweaked and reviewed by the TL Gov to announce
new tenders , looking for funders/operators
Or that process could already be going on behind closed doors, with parties like the
China BRI approached in the past
Tick , Tock , Timor Leste is on the clock
Baron Oil on the starting block
Fingers ready and like Linford Christie and Usain Bolt would say, go on the B