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This was the Asian Times write up 5 years ago when , the last time , to Beaco or not to Beaco
raged , Industry v Island , then faded into the ether, until the 9th Sept 2021 , we are having
another run at it, statement by the Gov
The timely development of Greater Sunrise is a crucial strategic consideration for Timor-Leste.
More than 90 per cent of Timor-Leste’s national budget comes from oil revenues from fields that will
be depleted in less than five years ((NOW)) and the government will exhaust Timor-Leste’s sovereign
wealth fund within a decade at its present rate of expenditure. ((2028))
If Timor-Leste secures the pipeline, it will receive less upstream revenue but instead will gain lucrative
downstream industrial and job-creation developments that necessarily flow from the processing of gas
and other resources.
But Timor-Leste’s leaders will have to confront unpalatable commercial realities about their
pipeline dream.
Independent oil and gas industry experts have argued that the PIPELINE TO AUSTRALIA IS THE ONLY OPTION
that makes commercial sense. It would take advantage of existing pipelines that connect mature fields to their
associated onshore processing facilities in Australia, and it would avoid the technical and financial challenges
of constructing a pipeline that traverses the Timor Trough.
Additionally, a pipeline to Australia would mean that Greater Sunrise commercial venture partners could
avoid the risk associated with building new processing facilities in a developing country such as
Timor-Leste.
Timor-Leste’s proposal could only occur with a direct subsidy of US$5.6 billion by the government
of Timor-Leste (or another funder), and it would only provide a mere 7 per cent return on a capital
investment of US$15.6 billion.
There is next to no evidence on the public record showing the economic viability of the pipeline to
Timor-Leste, nor is there a cost–benefit analysis clearly demonstrating the economic benefits of the
planned processing plant for Timorese citizens.
Despite this, Timor-Leste’s politicians have invested significant political capital in not only ‘winning’
the boundary dispute but also in bringing the pipeline to Timor-Leste’s shores and thus securing
investment, industry, jobs and development.
In particular, Timor-Leste’s main negotiator and former prime minister Xanana Gusmao has been explicit
in stating that having the pipeline going to Timor-Leste is non-negotiable.
This rhetoric has been used by successive governments since Gusmao first became prime minister
like bees around honey , when that day arrives GLA
:))
that vision was Shells et al in 2001 for production start 2003 , sadly his has
been the force majure and frozen industry
If shell had been permitted to build that one , it was to go south , not across to
Bayu but to intersect their pipeline , nearer OZ, which would have made a short
pipe for their Chuditch to connect with to the North East
BUT then if that had happened, our minnow would not be sitting with such a HUGE
asset , waiting for things to open up again.
As for pipe , they abandoned that idea , when the industry moved on FPSO and Shells
Super Barge FLNG becoming flavour of the months and also being fobbed off
They say we are going skint , they say we need , we say you can quickly and easily fix it
imo they will this time , end result all we need is , either a Major/s or Tier1/s having been
given assurances (written not handshake) all is good in the garden , to knock on our door
for a JV or takeaway
Alternative , they quash the 9th September statement, which includes WE ARE going to use
Chuditch et al to achieve their Beaco dream and or put that dream to bed, after decades of
talking and no action.
Perfect started for me , would be an update from Woodside its been ready for ever , with a
plan and return of some value to its balance sheet for its Gas and Condensate 1,500mboe
Matters not if that plan is Beaco or other , it projects a change and progress , that the industry
can get onboard with , a positive route to monetise those HUGE assets , long denied, then
watch that bid round go from 9 pre qual and 4 under review
To something akin to Nigeria's recent 1600+ bidders for 57 marginal licenses.
Ha ha, as long as he has a vision of a tunnel, about 2 feet wide, and extends all the way to Darwin!!!!
GLA
Gusmao was planning to run for president himself on 19th March but a
few days ago , announced he is now supporting another ex presidents
campaign Horta, who made this comment
I would rather not be in the presidency or in the government and continue to do what
I have been doing. But this is a selfish position, while Xanana Gusmao continues to work
for the country
Clearly demonstrates how much influence Gusmao still retains, he is a National Hero
who fought and led them to Independence.
and a real pain in the ..................with tunnel vision. GLA
;))
56% is an even bigger incentive , that's the default holding the Gov has
has since Shell and Conoco left Sunrise and still it waits, discovered
1974 , ready to flow since 2002
All I am saying and have always said (wtf clown) while the Island clings on to
it's dream , it remains the ONLY option in play , until if/when Beaco is decided
on.
Shell and others said a lot and had not options but submitted HARD plans
the Island has always said NO, it will all come to the Island.
Which is their right and fine and dandy , IF they finally commit to Build, NOT
keep talking about building it , every few years.
While they are making statements , like 9th September we are going to use
CHUDITCH etc etc , for Beaco , that uncertainty remains on our timetable.
As Shouston said , if it takes Gusmao and his crew great but if they do not get
the funding, what happens next ?, its his DREAM, which has left the current
historic mess and no new gas flows for 20+ years.
At least with the current President , imo we can be , as certain as you can , he
will make the long awaited decision, to let long standing processing options
prevail.
In late 2020 , both the Minister of Petroleum and Gov itself made a statement
which basically agreed, with what the industry had said previously , Beaco is
poorly defined and financially NOT sustainable.
All went quiet for a bit , then the Minister of Petroleum announced an official
review of the project, perhaps a concession to Gusmao, who is the same party
as the standing President.
Things went on silent running once more, until that 9th Sept announcement
to use Chuditch , Sunrise and Kelp for a joint development approach to Beaco
with much improved finances (but is it going to be acceptable to the sector)
So he went from , scrapping , to review , to we are having another go, which is
why the bid round has been twice extended for lack of interest (uncertainty)
Hoping has always hoped , those moves have been to placate , not just his back
benchers but the general population , long promised a huge increase in their
standard of living and employment prospects , within its own industry.
A final , we tried (it might still succeed) but we now move on , doors open to all
and we will still financially benefit from mass production , revenues and taxes
(although lost the mass employment part of the dream)
imo , we are in the end game , the result and timing , remains TBD.
Which again I have said all the way down the line, Beaco or Other , they have
to make a decision this time and TELL the world , remove the uncertainty and
boost the bid round. GLA
:))
if you're right RB and we multibag, as seems highly probable in the best case scenario, thats one handsome looking profit. Good luck to you. My holding is a bit more modest but everything relative to what one can afford or risk to lose.
In my opinion, the island govt would come across as pretty incompetent if they blocked development of assets that were worth so much to them, that was also a relatively 'green' win and a vote winner. Baron are perfectly correct to just go for it, so to speak. They've got some skin in the game too.
GS
Mr Escobar, one presumes you "and your 'ambassadors", are used to influencing certain sections of global government...I think of law and order..
Law, and an assemblage of parlimentary order, is occurring on the island .
As Sir HFB has indicated all along, massive asset small icecap..
If it takes the old guard to stomp about and beat their chests for "the"decision to be made then let's go..
0.007p...
RB you should know better than to question..lol ;-)
Seems to be all good here still!!
I was thinking the same. Hot and cold just like my missus.
The 25% on the table for Timor Gap is a fantastic remuneration and not something that’s in their interest to turn down. It would be on a free carry also. Equally would be very easy to get the local press to write an article that the island are turning down say $500million should that be the case. That would put pressure on a weak government. $500mill in the bank is easy money and in the coffers much quicker than building an lng plant on the island.
HFB don’t get me wrong I have been in OLED with boil in and out for a year and a half and your the soul reason I got into boil and copl.
and I completely appreciate both sides of the risk. Just sometimes you seem more negative that positive. Anyways keep up the good work HFB :))
Tomorrow perhaps some FOMOF
Fear
Of
Missing
Out
Friday
l8trs
Shell did Rob , spent nigh on 50 million on Chuditch development , what's
that at 2022 prices and walked away frustrated by the Islands NO YOU CANT
when they announced hard plans , not options
Gusmao , the man that invented the Beaco dream and had the all on the Island policy
written into law , was planning to stand in the 19th March election to run for President
again , now thrown his hat behind Horta (age 72) another of the old guard freedom
fighters for Independence.
So our journey , may still have some twists , still to go but until his crew and mindset
put in a box , nothing is certain.
Good , the current president , is more open to the outside worlds help and having laid out
the 10 year path, knows they have to do something now and more likely to use a wise head
to allow the sector to flourish sooner.
Bad , Gusmao , still holds a lot of sway and if his man gets back in , it will definitely be a backward
step , without any doubt , his baby , will be the only game in town still , however long it takes, or
until another Presidential election comes around lol
:))
never changed an iota , since we looked to RTO in Nov 2019
massive figures by shell , local history a disaster for Gas
Said all along , binary as it comes , not options but a PERMIT to process
do not care if it ends up Beaco or other , just a DEFINITE you can and a home
available for the gas
RB1 As far as I’ve seen HFB just tells it as he see’s it ………….Tells it quite a lot,but bats straight I believe;))
MD
I can never tell HFB if your being negative or not. You seem to chop and change haha we all know where this is going this year.
End of the day you don’t go to all that planning making a office in Timor leste go over the government offtake agreements if it’s going no where.
Country running out of cash 2 years left. They need us more than we need them. They will accept what ever is best commercially. They get 25% regardless. Load up 2022 going to be big.
I’m hoping to get my holding to 50mil very soon ;) boom time!
unless, some as Shaa calls them late Larry's pop up on/after close completions
not beating yesterdays 211m , currently 165m aim/aqse.
:((
Nobody believed me , as said nothing has changed other than
Barons figures for Chuditch , nearer to what Shell stated in 1998
World knows its huge , world knows many OPTIONS always been available
sadly the world also knows , the Island has been shooting itself in the foot
with a Dream , not shared by the Industry for Decades.
Day they say YES , not well you might want to ,,,,, but permission denied, is the
day people will have jaws hanging around their ankles , not believing the figures
and volume in front of them as we Multi Mega Bag
Sat in a few, already Holding the great asset, SOME have taken many years, others
a quicker trigger , to rerate to a sensible value, that still undervalues the asset.
Still see no different here, binary as it comes , give a Permit for Gas for the first time
ever and the whole 15 or so offshore licenses go MENTAL, they all know what has
happened either side of the TL maritime boundary , while its own resources have
stagnated.
It will happen imo , just the timing remains uncertain, GLA
;))
Well didn’t expect this to finish down today
MD
can we beat yesterdays 211m shares across the two exchanges
gonna be close lol
;))
Did a dummy quote .074 to buy. Last 10mil was a buy marked as a sell. Could we have a decent afternoon….
End of the day doesn’t matter how good the presentation was 3d results isn’t for a couple of months along with a jv. I won’t be selling a single share. When that lands this lock people out till premiums are paid.
Building a solid holdings at this level is an absolute gift!
138M across the 2 exchanges , let's see what the afternoon market brings, until
close and beyond GLA
;))
Approaching 125m volume across the two exchanges
the wise old birds , use to say , a real rise , not spike , comes with a rerate
on the back of 3-5 consecutive buying days , with a likewise 3-5%+ share
base movement each of those sessions
So with our share base we are looking at fag packet 300-500m+ , good days
and good times , GLA
;))
boy they are generous
We have used $0.5/boe for this purpose, LOL
a success case for the initial drilling programme at Chuditch we would probably need
to boost the valuation quotient to at least $2/boe , WOW so generous lol
but if we declare GIIP 1000mboe and a 50% potential recovery rate , that is still
$1 Billion at a lowly $2 (f n syria/iraq rates) USA OVER $10 , so we should in REALITY
be somewhere in the Middle of the league table for regional risk assesment.
Current for sale rate NPV10/rr in the USA is around $10.50+ a barrel reserves
rose from 7.52 at $39 a barrel poo to $10.50 in September when pushing $80
poo and that is pushing on again now, was $12.50 the last time poo crossed
$100 (2013/14?)
Also skipping the fact , previously successfully drilled and Shell cos 100% rating
conservative publication at best but as said for a long time , progress could give
us 10 bags , Monetisation a Mega Mulit Bagger , GLA
;))
Thanks Teaye
"This would
boost the absolute valuation to £110m, equivalent to 0.949p/share.
13 bags from here to there.."
And that is an extremely conservative valuation imv....
Thanks for sharing Teaye...
Nice ending..
We are leaving our absolute and per/share valuations unchanged from our September
2021 interim report at £30.9m and 0.27p/share respectively. In a success case for the
initial drilling programme at Chuditch we would probably need to boost the valuation
quotient to at least $2/boe and the probability of commercialisation to 60%. This would
boost the absolute valuation to £110m, equivalent to 0.949p/share.
13 bags from here to there..