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If you check the data on Euroclear, it shows monthly shorted shares that are less than 0.5%. BMN had 0.62% in May, and 0.91% in June. So it did increase. It only releases data a month in arrears, so isnt posting July's info yet.
It's not just any round number sells that are considered shorts dryland. Usually they are 50k and 300k, in a sequence of at least 3 within 3 minutes, that are at or near a round number and are designed to take out the quoted amount of shares by the MMs. These aren't the only trading patterns that have become apparent, but it's one of them. What you might find they are doing is recycling a portion of their short position. So keeping 90% in, but playing with buying and selling the remaining 10% in order play with the SP. So what looks like a constant increase in its position, actually isn't.
sorry for the typos...anyway my point is i think it is far more feasible that a lot of investors who bought at say 35p plus and 48p when we peaked have cut their losses and also there may be a few big holders offloading and why not if they bought back in the day they can crystallize some profit. I have as much proof of this as you have re the shorters but to me it's much more logical.
surely if any of the trades were related to the declared short they would have to declare an increased short position and that hasn't increased since 7th June? I haven't posted on here for a while (but still hold BMN before i get shot down) i think this BB has been obsessed with shorting for months. Anytime a round figure (or multiple trades) of 30/50/100k) sells are printed they are deemed to be shorts. I think this is doesn't help any newbies researching BMN as it may well put them off investing particularly. FWIW i think there may be a few small time shorters (according to IG over 80% of CFD holders lose money) and ok there may be a few spread betters but its minuscule otherwise the spread betting company would hedge and if it exceeded 3% we would see a TR1 as have been evidenced on ther stocks.
By the trading patterns they use. It could be that these are related to the declared short, but I dont think all of them are.
@ endion what shorts are you referring to? I know there is one disclosed but if there are others that are undisclosed how do you know about them?
They may be in to their maximum limit and hopefully feel that not closing at 21p was a mistake. Hence great effort to keep in this range in the hope that the SP may slip lower one more time. The lack of concerted effort through regular sells is what makes me believe they are at/near their limit, otherwise we’d be seeing more timed sells first thing. WTFDIK
Yes , declared short still open, and no attempt to close when sp dipped to around 21. May be a long slog.
I would disagree Brad. They may not be attempting to push the price down but they do turn up to keep it at 24p and prevent any rise. The shorts are still open, and they are still active.
Vijay I think you will find with the complete lack of volume that a fart would change the spread at present. All the daily price movement is all about stimulating some volume. We are in a holding pattern with no one even shorting at present.
They are not priced in because there has been, over the last few months, a seller who at least one of the MM's has over a barrel. There was a surplus of buys to the amount of around 25 million back in the 40p range, which has yet to met as far as we are aware. Shorters have also taken advantage of this and have systematically reduced the SP and suppressed any rises.
Shorters will have to buy back at some point, and I can only imagine that very soon they will be swimming against the tide. Once the Vanchem deal is finalized then production up to 10,000 mtv is secured. News from BE will be incoming too, there is only half a year left till their electrolyte plant may be up and running.
Hi SOTRR, I agree with your point, however I have neither the experience or expertise to explain why the many pieces of good news (not just vanchem) we’ve had this year are not priced in. I made the assumption that the positive announcements would be priced in (eg 2018 results), so have learnt to temper my expectations, hence my thoughts on a more muted response to the deal closing.
The rise to 50p and retrace to 20p following the absolute beating from short sellers is going to have ongoing consequences. It is going to be more difficult to gain momentum as now twice bitten holders will sell into significant rises due to a lack of confidence fearing that it will happen again. Hopefully this will mean a more measured rise but I have no doubt there will be a lot of investors now looking for any sniff of weakness in order to trade.
Fairwinds: "So the Vanchem deal closing, and JSE listing announcement, while significant, are already known, and I don’t see how they will give us a bump."
Vanchem announcement was on 1st May. Closing price 29.5p. Successfully completing this transaction immediately boosts production levels by a third with no effort. Price today 24p. So not priced in at all as the market seemed to immediately value Vanchem at 5p. Or if you prefer we can look at the company valuation the day before the announcement - 24.8p. So the price today is still lower than the price it was before it was announced we are going to immediately increase production via acquisition.
JSE listing - a lot depends on whether there is a share issue to support this. We are anecdotally led to believe there is significant pent up demand in SA to invest in BMN. Firstly if there is no share issue to support JSE then where are all these shares going to come from to satisfy this pent up demand? Even if there is an issue to support it, how oversubscribed will it be?
Obviously the 'JSE listing announcement' as you referred to it will not have any marked effect on the London share price on the day it is made.
But it will open up the door for a significant amount of new buying interest, which - if it materialises - will.
It will (IMO) take some time for there to be sufficient BMN shares on the JSE for that listing to significantly affect the SP here, but there are many other pieces of this puzzle also in the medium to long timeframe that could align very nicely with that time, and I'm quite happy to wait.
I have been wondering about this stagnant period as well, my thoughts, and some no doubt questionable maths below,
The large seller (I recall 110M shares being mentioned at one stage, not sure where it comes from) if there is one, should all but be done, as we are approx 130 trading days into the year, and often have 1M more buys than sells on a daily basis. Though the Vaneck buying 20M+ and then disposing of all but 4.6M of their holding will have extended this.
The TPEP short is also stagnant, so my thoughts are that the regular 30k and 50k sells are related to the ‘large seller’ i.e. Vaneck more recently, A N other unknown entity prior to that.
As for upcoming news, despite the enthusiasm, Im not sure that we will see an uplift. Why? Because the 2018 results, and Vanchem announcement should have sent us well north, towards SP Angels target. Instead we find ourselves pinned down with very little clarity as to why. For me, the 2018 results were the key announcement that I was waiting for, and would have thought the market response to be more positive. Is the vanadium price the driver? I suspect that our commercial agreements are neither at the top or bottom end of the ranges we have seen in the last 12 months.
So the Vanchem deal closing, and JSE listing announcement, while significant, are already known, and I don’t see how they will give us a bump.
H2 numbers on the other hand will again put in black and white the profit we are making, and should underscore the production improvements we believe are now part of business as usual process (Q2 numbers will confirm or disprove this), and I’m recalling a good post from Pdub a few weeks back about the market liking profit. An update on BE commercial agreements is the other piece of news I believe will have a positive impact.
A year ago the vanadium price was around twice of today and vanadium was beginning its bull run. So the SP has held up quite well and reflects all the updates as you say
@UKSteveg - I agree with your observations,. However the point I am making is that you say it's 'only' been a month, but a month is a very long time for a stock on AIM to be held in a vice like grip in an extremely tight range. I have not come across this situation before as other stocks I hold on AIM will frequently move several percentage points in a session either way when there is now news.
World's gone mad. SP is about the same as one year ago, think about all the amazing updates since then.
The darling of AIM put out another profit warning today, PE ratio of 37! Bargain.
Guess retail investors prefer faddy names over actual profits.
Holding and will continue to add. GL
We have only been in the 23 to 25p range for the last month or so. At the start of June we were actually around 30p, and in May we were mostly in the late 20s. The swings seem to be more volatile in that period, although it has stabilised somewhat now.
We do seem to be reflecting the vanadium price, which itself has stagnated in this period. In the last week or so there has been a marked change in Chinese and non-Chinese V prices , with the Chinese prices stabilising or pushing up slightly, and the non-Chinese prices falling.
Is there a large seller still. Does not appear so. The parallels to Erongo have been mentioned which does not appear to be being played out.
I assume due to lack of buyers etc Iguees some news is needed to stimulate buying interest unless the V price starts to increase significantly
Well I've been invested here for over a year and during that time have also bought into another dozen or so other stocks.
I can say in that time I have not seen a stock stuck for such a long period in a very narrow price range such as the one we are experiencing now. It seems as though the price has not really moved oustide of a very narrow range (23-25p) for a number of weeks.
It seems to me that this is the floor and that if the price is dropped the supporting buys coming in (seemingly from LTH's) at the lower price are pushing the price back up to neutrality. At the same time, the lack of volume and buying pressure at these prices is preventing the price from rising at all.
Presumably there are potential investors waiting on the sidelines for news and some momentum before buying. I appreciate that there may also be other forces at play such a large seller holding this down, but the tight range over a sustained period is bizarre and feels like the longest mexican standoff ever!
Just musing and wondering what other holders thoughts are on the current situation.
GLA