Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Oops forgot to convet to pence - should be 0.8 - 0.95p per day that we're adding, so a solid 5% gain per day if you assume a PE of 10 and that the market can recognize value when it sees it...!
James0309, thanks for clarifying! My numbers included around 1/3 taken off for taxes, royalties, bonuses, repayments etc, but even if we have to take another 28% off of that, we should be adding 1.4p PER DOLLAR to our shareprice on a PE of 10.
Given that vanadium prices are rising at around 2% per day on a base price of $30-35, that's 60-70c rise per day = 80-95p per day.
Hades, you also need to factor in corporation tax @ 28%, as a P/E ratio is used on “post tax earnings”. Also the production split of Vametco / Vanchem is likely to be in the ratio of 3:1 (3,300:1,100 tonnes).
My estimates suggest a $1 rise adds approximately $1.95m post tax annual profit, after accounting for additional royalties. On a conversion rate of US$1.40, that equates to £1.4m post tax profit.
Using your P/E of 10 and 1.192 billion share currently in issue, this in theory should add approximately 1.2p to the SP for every $ increase in V price.
I hope that helps.
This seems like something we should be shouting from the rooftops, no? This is all based on my understanding and other posters with more knowledge might be able to update / correct this, but this is how I've been roughly calculating it:
Let's take a middle value for estimated 2021 production as 4,200 tons. We'll asssume metric as no-one has specified US tons. Each extra dollar on the vanadium price gives $4,200,000. We own 74(?)% of Vametco and 100(?)% of Vanchem. We'll assume each produces 50% of the total production, for the sake of simplicity and because we don't know the exact post-refurbishment/upgrade numbers, or how shutdowns will affect production at either location. That means for this calculation we're assigning 87% of the $4,200,000 to Bushveld, giving $3,650,000.
Out of that will presumably come tax, royalties, potentially Orion repayments and potentially performance-related employee bonuses - I don't know what that total will be, but let's conservatively assume it leaves us with around $2.5-3M extra profit per $1 of vanadium price, if it's sustained across the next year.
At a PE of 10, each $1 increase in the vanadium price should be adding something like 1.8 - 2.2p to the share price.
Once again, those are my very rough estimates - if I've missed something, please don't hesitate to correct me. But if my understanding is right, let's shout those numbers far and wide - we should be adding that every couple of days at this rate of vanadium price increases!!
Caution have a look at Spangel broker report for the years ahead based on V price. adjust accordingly to your needs.
Might find it if you go on the bushy website.
mtV means metric tonnes of contained Vanadium
2021 Forecast is 4,100 to 4,350 mtV
Absolutely correct gambitxjs, the same as a Gallon or US Gallon, it would be disclosed as a US ton
UkSteve do we not calculate to a standard tonne rather than USA? Ie 1000kg rather than 907kg
Thanks, Steve. I suppose the vast majority of it must flow through to the bottom line (net of tax, of course).
The first question has been covered many times. Simply work out the extra profit from one ton based on an increase of $1 per kg. 907 kg ton. Use 4455 as the estimated annual tonnage ( this year) if needed. Thats the forecast. Or any other tonnage based on differing timelines.
I’d love to meet you to discuss, Alfa.
no we just are not here to help you do basic mathematics
No responses on this, so I’m guessing many of you also struggle to address these important points (as I do).
Can anyone please remind me of the likely incremental profit (or free cash flow) per tonne to Bushveld based on an increase of $1/kgV (and based on current output, assuming no battery-related revenue).
Also, are there any industry experts on the bulletin board who have a sense of cost, IRR or payback period (or other similar metrics) for current small/medium/large VRFBs? Bluntly, does the maths work?
Finally, does anyone have a sense of the likely price tag associated with Lemur?
All questions and no answers from me, I’m aware. But these issues seem, erm, rather important.
Best wishes