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Hi bluegrass
Are we arguing? Sorry my friend I'm obviously giving totally the wrong impression. Please accept my apologies.
John
John
I don't know why you are arguing with me about this, we seem to agree. What you said in effect repeats what I said originally.
"Impossible to tell if the issue of these shares will effect share price. They won't be traded and the effect could already be built into current share price. Some people look on it as a positive that Garfeng want to invest more."
Maybe I should not have said the piece at the end of my statement about preferring not to be completely happy about the further dilution since it seems to have muddied my point.
More importantly with the pervious drift in the share price and the share price rise today I am expecting some people to post various potential hiccups and problems in an attempt to create doubt and keep the share price bouncing around to make it a good trading environment. If you had bought a few days ago and sold out again today, then you may be more than happy for the share price to drop again in order to rinse and repeat. I maybe a cynic but I am expecting this tomorrow and it needs to be called out. That is if you believe posting on these boards makes any difference anyway.
I'm more worried that this seems infested by a bot like EMH and many other AIM shares !
bluegrass
I'm not too worried about the additional shares to take Ganfeng to 28.8%, although in theory the Chinese authorities can overturn the idea - in practice I don't think the market thinks that this will happen so the market price already assumes its a done deal. Another good point, made by a poster earlier, is that Ganfeng wont be trading these shares, so there wont be selling pressure from them.
I cant see the link anymore to the VSA Capital presentation (lse removed it?) which is I think available on their twitter account. They reiterated how important the fact that finance was fully in place is, and mentioned that other companies have failed through their inability to raise sufficient cash to develop their assets. We really should be pleased at what has happened, and if some aren't then maybe this isn't the company for them. Provided Lithium remains strong I think this company can provide shareholders with significant capital gains and eventual dividends with, now, relatively limited risk.
I’m presuming that the majority of shares were sold by the institution’s that bought the placing shares? Hence the drop in share price. Judging by the volume since the placing, a huge amount of money has changed hands, so it would be safe to assume a lot of shares got dumped, hence the drop.
It will be safe to assume that Gangfeng will not be selling any of their existing shares, or the newly created ones. Therefore I would expect the share price to remain stable.
Hopefully by the time the shares are issued some more progress on the building I of the mine will have been made to justify the company’s increased market cap due to the enlarged number of shares.
107M shares issued at 45p brought the price down straight away to that price, and this is common with placings; ok, so then we drift to below 40p - but my proposition is: if 53M shares are going to be issued at 45p in 2 months time; how much of a 'given' will it be that the shares will return to 45 again ?
Just thinking out loud, but I couldn't understand why it drifted, plus, I didn't move quick enough to catch the sub 40 :(
Well aware that their was no choice. Merely responding to issue raised by others. I am aware that some people maybe trying to raise issues like this to increase volatility for trading purposes. Was trying to say clumsily say that it did not matter.
I don't think they had much option bluegrass. Since the Chinese permission isn't certain then the placing had to cover the required construction costs without it. Unfortunately the pre-emptive rights to Ganfeng had already been granted , so inevitably this was going to happen. Its done now, lets look forwards
Impossible to tell if the issue of these shares will effect share price. They won't be traded and the effect could already be built into current share price. Some people look on it as a positive that Garfeng want to invest more. I personally would have preferred not to have the further dilution because the company is on paper fully funded without the further investment.
@xtw2 - Ganfeng took their company level share up to 28.8% at the last placing BUT their new shares, 53M, won't be issued until authorised by Chinese authorities. I'm estimating this to be sometime in May simply because of previous timelines, but I don't know for sure (by my reckoning we are due an RNS about now to confirm their 50% at project level). These shares will be at 45p; so will that effect share price at the time?
We should be fully funded with, possibly even without, these extra shares .
Read RNS 5thFeb.
Hi jam2morrow, what do you mean by "more dilution to come, 53M shares worth, and that probably won't happen til May" please? What dilution is that? I thought we were now fully funded for construction and production?
I've been adding. This share price drift is a gift, as far as I am concerned. If we get to the new tax year and BCN is still under 40 (or low 40s) I will be adding a lot more! Not without risks but once the construction plan becomes clear this will start to re-rate.
thanks
adding at sub 40, not going to wait for ISA will add more then. Should get a bounce soon in markets.
Meant to say 'share price drift'
Personally I don't think share price has any impact on the company operationally at all. BCN is fully funded to production. Just a bit of patience needed.
Gd Morning, I'm a small holder of BCN shares and like reading the comments on here. Interested to hear thoughts from some of the more informed in the impact you think this slide will have on the company as this is obviously having a noticeable impact on the mkt cap, thanks.
I havent heard much mention of another BCN element for a while, so as a reminder-
"In October 2020, Bacanora has sold its 50% shareholding in Deutsche Lithium GmbH ("DL" or "Deutsche Lithium") to Zinnwald Lithium plc (formerly Erris Resources plc), in exchange for 44.3% of Zinnwald Lithium plc and a net profit royalty of 2%. The royalty agreement provides that the royalty will be paid to Bacanora for an initial 40-year term and Zinnwald Lithium plc has the right to extinguish the agreement by paying Bacanora a one-off payment of €2m"
Great, thanks SuperRoty, good to see you are still positive - one thing for anyone new to know is that the original date for BCN going into production was expected to be 2019 and therefore many LTH's will possibly dealing with a bitter experience.
I've been holding on and off for several years but also had the opportunity to buy some at lows of 18p and recently topped up £4K at 45p, in the past I have held at 80p and moved on at a loss at the time, however I do believe this is an incredible time for BCN holders and hope this becomes evident soon.
If you have any doubts check the new here - two battery factories planned 20Gwh and 25Gwh that's just this week, nearly all lithium compounds are up but battery grade is flying, it's been a couple of years of red figures.
http://www.asianmetal.com/LithiumPrice/Lithium.html
Nev sales and production up YOY and down MOM - but take into account Chinese new year sof figures will be distorted.
As always DYOR
I really don't see Gangfeng buying in the open market, is not their remit and do they really care for owning another 1% of BCN when secured 50% offtake? No.
Think best to leave that one alone, and even if do who cares? Its a few % more it doesn't mean we fly back to 65p!
Markets are choppy, were going through bit of rerating, growth stocks taking some pain is what it is.
Can post every positive Li story in the world, this wont rerate for a while but when it does it'll be worth the wait.
Think sub 40p nice to top up into just think from here going to keep 25k back for when can stick it into ISA.
Should say in and out
Jim
Yes I have been out of BCN over the past five years. Bought £10k worth on last placing at 46p but should have waited. I am very keen to up my stake here but I am seeing how far this drifts. No one has any patience any more and I know there may be some issues and delays but I expect the share price to be a lot more than this on production.
I was in GGP with 4m shares and sold out when it drifted down by around 25% after the Newcrest deal. Learnt a big lesson there as it cost me over £1m profit.
Now I invest mainly in fully financed projects, with big resources. BCN ticks the right boxes for me so I will buy as many as possible while the share price is low. Less risky to buy low and much easier to accumulate a big holding.
No worries here. This looks to be a very sound investment. Demand for green energy is about to soar.
Strong Buy.
Good luck
In response to your original question jam2morrow, I suppose the market sees that this is essentially 'set' until the mine is built. There is only the possibility of bad news (building delays etc) and little potential for earth shattering good news in the next 24-30 months. So i imagine to many there are other opportunities elsewhere...
SuperRoty,
are you holding here, it's just I don't recall seeing you on this BB and you are not shy when it comes to posting on other companies!
Glad you are positive on BCN - same for me, you don't have much time for KDNC.