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You too Mr KLUCK. We all need luck, I'm off to get my rabbits foot out of the kitchen drawer
John,
Thank you for your clarifications. Basically, we agree.
Best of luck
Kluck
Yes, sadly M&G have thrown the towel in. Think we both hoped they had seen the light and were standing out, it seemed that way. I do think their capitulation is a bad sign as it will imo encourage others to accept, especially given we don't think nominee acceptances to date are yet included in the 42%.
Funny how they have ignored their own RNS about no longer reporting acceptances - if it had remained sub 1% I'll bet they wouldn't have. This seems calculated to add pressure.
Sorry to you and Mr C about the poor wording of my earlier comment. What I meant is no AT permission = deal withdrawn = hangover on SP which I suspect, pending positive clarification on whether the AT implied wider Mexican government intentions, would suffer initially on fear to the detriment of us larger holders. Just an opinion.
Mr C
Not at all, but if the Anti Trust permissions are not given then the bid wont proceed. That is one of the pre-conditions of the bid becoming unconditional. The consequence of that, notwithstanding the obvious escalation of Lithium price since May (& September for that matter) is that a big fat question mark would hand over the SP because of a suspicion that the Sonora JV is being targeted by the Mexican Government.
mrcautious I find it hard to believe that GFL made the offer without probing the Mexican authorities first.
Yes, john why do you think we will lose everything if the deal is withdrawn?
john - Do you therefore believe that if the bid is withdrawn we lose everything, because thats how i understand you. Do we actually know what is meant by not meeting Mexican antitrust rules ?
Yes, I get that MrC. If the threat is real the bid is likely to be withdrawn. Lets hope not, many people have quite a lot of skin in the game here so i would hate that to be the reason the deal fails
john - my point is it would suit their aims to think we would get scared and approve the deal 'just in case' of problems with the Mexican govt.
“ And what’s wrong with the US car industry relying on Chinese lithium?”
Do I really need to answer that?
@Chameleon Not that it matters, but Bacanora is nowhere near the California border. The Mexican state of Sonora does not border on California. Go south from California and you arrive at the Mexican state of Baja California. Sonora borders the states of Arizona (due north of the Bacanora site) and New Mexico.
And what’s wrong with the US car industry relying on Chinese lithium? The American government is subsidizing the rare-earth mine (in California!) owned by publicly-traded MP Materials but controlled, according to recent claims by short sellers, by the Chinese government.
Bloody hell. This is worse than Eastenders!
If we want to turn this into a geopolitical drama then it’s equally likely that the US is leaning on The Mexican government to disrupt the deal. I mean do they really want their car industry to be reliant on Chinese-owned lithium from just across the Californian border?
I assume hamster you were replying to bampster. Its all very confusing to an old bloke.
I still don't believe that Mexico will mess with China. Even if the bid collapses GF have a direct and indirect interest in nearly 2/3rds of Sonara. China is too important economically to Mexico. Anyone feel different?
What deadline?
Eventually heard from iWeb, they want to know by close of play on 8th BUT that did arrive (finally) the day that the RNS about suspension arrived after market close!
Am i right in getting the impression that we are all fairly jaded by this now?
If that was the case, do you think GF would still be here, desperate for our shares? Somehow I think not.
...have until the below deadline...
@Bampster What was the deadline date you were given?
Mr C
That Mexico anti trust investigation wont approve of the deal? If this happens the deal is off anyway
In fact I wouldnt put it past this BOD to ELUDE to the fact that this may happen to get people to change their minds, it fits with all they have done and said so far...
I don't think that you can jump to that conclusion, in truth no one here has expressed an opinion. The market certainly hasn't marked down the SP, which indicates not.
The email implies that the platform is yet to submit numbers accepting. which others here have already stated they suspect. This may support the theories behind why the level of acceptances are so low.
Bacanora Lithium Plc (BCN) - GB00BD20C246
Further to our email on 24th September 2021, the Mexican Antitrust Clearance Condition was not satisfied and Bacanora have made a request that the current timetable for the offer is suspended. Notwithstanding the suspension of the offer timetable, Bacanora is still encouraging its shareholders to take up the offer.
Clients who wish to withdraw their elections based on the above have until the below deadline to remove their election following the below steps and replacing the elected number of shares with zero (on step 4). All 6 steps must be followed to remove the election.
Well guys are the Mexicans going to make our investment worthless?