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Agreed that it's on a 10%+ discount to 31/12/21 NAV and that that NAV has probably risen since then. I've been surprised at the scale and speed of the pullback. However, I'm struggling a bit with how to assess the future prospects and valuation here. On the one hand we're now at a decent discount to NAV and in the short term it looks like the NAV will rise. On the other, the medium term prospects for NAV growth don't look at positive as they did, say, two months ago (due to worsening economic situation/ ability of tenants to pay higher rents/ rising costs of debt). So I can see why this would trade at a discount, rather than a premium, to NAV and I'm not sure how far NAV discount/premium is really the right way to value this in this environment. The other thing I'm struggling with is the yield - last year the DSP was 6.7p and we don't have a specific target for how that is to change this year. So, using 6.7p as the figure, a SP of 196p is a yield of only 3.4% -not bad, but not amazing when you can now get 2-2.5% on cash balances.
BBOX has been big favourite of mine for a long time now - but I'm just not sure how to value it really in a rising interest rate environment.
Same applies to lots of the other logistics/warehouse reits I guess, such as SGRO, LMP, SHED, WHR. All previously trading well ahead of NAV and now suddenly at discounts (or at least assumed discounts) to NAV.
Any thoughts welcome.
I topped up at 197p today. Now trading at a 10% discount to end Dec NAV (and i expect this to have risen during Q1 given inflation linkage in rental agreements) . Not often you get these sort of opportunities!
Topped up today. Still think over s 3 year timeframe this will come good.
oz
Agreed and my thoughts too. Ive been thinking of buying for last couple of days without being decisive. 3 directors have now bought in. They have put their money where their knowledge and expectation is. I suspect if this doesnt crash through 200 Monday then the bottom has been reached and I would 'EXPECT' a fairly rapid rise to around the 220 mark. I will see what happens but am fairly sure I will be buying Monday unless I am totally wrong or simply too late because I wouldnt expect much movement above 220 for quite some time. Just MO of course
Herd panic again. I've seen it many times since my first trade over 50 years ago. Big Box and Shell together make up nearly 50% of my portfolio. I intend to hold both long term. I will decide next week whether to buy more Big Box which I consider has a bright future. Gla
Ridiculous that this is now below the NAV, especially given the positive trading update. Not to mention the sites under development which will add to the NAV shortly.
Now around 4% discount to NAV. The sellers are getting braver - there cant be much further to go - can there ??
Yep. Both have Tritax as manager but are different funds.
This is on a doom curve - there seems to be no bottom to it. I will buy more at some point but goodness knows where that point will be. Its crazy that after such a positive update and based only on a comment from Amazon and after two managemnet buys yeaterday this has fallen so much. the market really is inhabited by a set of nervous wrecks
Are EBOX and BBOX related? Why is EBOX selling at a higher dividend yield?
Yes indeed BBox ticks all the right boxes (no pun intended) to satisfy a decent investment case IMHO.
Agree wholeheartedly! Long leases; upward only rental agreements; and, as you say, unsaturated demand for big boxes, makes this one of the safest long-term investments (if not as exciting as the likes of Tesla).
ecommerce and logistics seem to have been singled out as the whipping boys for the current and medium term squeeze. I was in Manchester airport the other week and the only squeeze I could see there was at the check ins and the bars - 30 min wait for a drink and at around £6 a pint. The media love to create a crisis but perhaps not as much as the stock market. I dont suppose theres any chance of any of them running a story about the squeeze easing the pressure on driver and other worker shortages or relieving the demand for fuel. No thought not. Only misery keeps em happy
Divi could have been better I suppose. Still they were bang on cue.
Funny people investors.. Nothing really can be see this week that couldnt be seen last week. The co reports they are in good health yet the sp falls off a cliff. Its like toilet rolls in Tesco. Some media outlet says there are none and hey presto - there are none
Agree chewise. Crazy markets currently.
BBox has really diversified portfolio, plus the 4 large Amazon units are on 20 year leases. They won’t be going anyway soon.
I have been a lth here and topped up a short while ago as I consider the selling has been overdone. As for Amazon's statement. So what? The future is bright for big boxes and many firms are ready and eager to fill any void left by others IMHO. A decent forward looking trading statement issued. This is a solid well run Company. The sp has had a bashing no doubt as have most global stocks. It may go lower before moving north again. Note it was below 190 this time last year.... gla
Scratch that, quick Google search worked.
Do you have a link to that Amazon statement?
BBOX has been my mainstay for last couple of years , rising to about 75% profit plus divis.
Now I read that Amazon is saying they have too much warehouse space I sold half my holding a couple of days ago which seems to have been prudent as the SP continues to fall and who can say when it will stop.
Are we due a NAV update?
Is anyone buying at this price? It is now below NAV is it not?
The last update was solid. No reason for this to slide only general sentiment - the 'kick one and they all limp' syndrome. Squeaky bums due to Amazon less than its usual atral performance. No ones gonna escape the current climate (especially retail and distribution) but that dont mean the wheels have fallen off. People are not going back to the high street and that means sheds and last mile - the market for those is by no means saturated yet no matter what the IC says.
At just 2 % above NAV this is well oversold imo. Last year there was a trading statement and dividend announcement early May. Would be nice to get a strong one this week - like tomorrow :-)
Possibly to do with expected interest rate rises, I would guess.
From the March update: Based on these comments, I can’t see why anything has fundamentally changed.
Strong start to FY 2022 with 1.8 million sq ft of near-term development starts in Q1 2022, adding a potential £13.1 million of contracted rent, of which 56% has been pre-let.
· FY 2022 guidance increased to 3-4 million sq ft of starts and £350-400 million of capex into development, compared to long-term target run rate of 2-3 million sq ft per annum; maintaining 6-8% target yield on cost.
· Record levels of occupier demand across our portfolio with active negotiations on more than 10 million sq ft over 11 sites.
A buying opportunity if sp falls below 220p imo. I'm a lth here and feel quite relaxed about my investment. As for the so called experts opinions.... well enough said.
Sps are like uks weather rain today sunshine tomorrow. Gla