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Hi All
Purchased a small trading batch @ 2695p, using proceeds from another trading batch, having sold AVST on this mornings little rise. Gone againsy my plan of funding from IMB, but feel I missed a chance to sell some of those before this drop.
nothing to do with ex-div drop - all thanks to Biden today. Always someone to have a dig on the backy makers. Just hope to be nimble enough to profit from the chances they provide.
GLA - CSDI
Nice to see BATS on the move north - long may it continue.
I'm riding the other horse called IMB and keeping tucked in closely behind as the great Peter O'Sullivan might have commentated.
A lot of fences to jump in the Grand National to get to the winning post, where we were in 2016. We are only just over half way there !
Sorry if I speak in riddles, but hope you get the gist.
Cheers - CSDI
Still sticking to my £32 target but yes were heading there.
Will be watching to see £30 barrier break in next few months and move to the £33 suggested by Barclays or target price of £40 by Credit Suisse.
Bought 700 for my ISA this afternoon and this will add to my current "good yield" shares of CEY at under 110, LGEN at under £3, GSK, APF , AV. , BP and IMB. Once pubs open look out for the smokers and vapers outside.
Hi again CSDI
BATS at under 27 would be nice, but around 25 would be better. I think a few months from now that is a realistic price. Divis will have come and gone, and the truth about the economic impact of the virus should be more visible. I am not in a hurry to add here, but I may in a few months. Good luck, friend.
Hi CapPIg
It seems we follow a number of similar shares, but I guess you are fairing much better than me.
I loaded up in 2018 with BP @over£5, HSBC £7, IMB £29, RDSB £27, and BT £2 - so have struggled with handling big losses on all, and having no funds to add.
I've sold BP, BT and HSBC at hefty losses to reinvest, with mixed results.
My p/f is shown as a discussion chat on the "general chat" boards.
I am down approx 6% on my current p/f; and down overall 4% since Jan 2018 compared to the FTSE's fall of 11% over the same time. My current p/f is all in a SIPP, with only a small total pot of approx £40K, and I have 12 shares with GSK being my largest at 18% of p/f; IMB 14% and RDSB 11% with the latter being the worse performer with a 21% loss.
I am trying to trade down the losses from the original high purchases by averaging down costs when funds allow.
Having been at 20% cash last weekend, I have gone all-in again this week with adding, 88E, AVST, NCYT and another batch of RDSB.
As mentioned elsewhere I can only buy BATS now if I sell some IMB, but for now IMB seems to be outperforming BATS by approx 10% over the last 6 months. so while momentum is with IMB I will stay there, but ready to switch horses when we come to ex-div date again in few weeks time.
I have done similar switches bw BP/ RDSB and BT/VOD since the markets went mad in March last year, infected (?) by CV-19 !
Cheers & GL - CSDI
Hi CSDI (& all),
thanks for that info. Yes, I use DividendMax too. Also investing.com. Broker is iWeb @ £5 a trade.
My & my wife's ISA's contain these share (% of portfolio in brackets)
BHP(2%), HSBC(20%), IMB(16%), NG(6%), PNN(8%), RDSB(29%), BP(14%), BT(4%)
Have been trading in & out of all of these since March last year. Plus others inc BATS
Usually do my research at weekends for the week ahead. Setting possible buy/sell prices.
Hope to top up on BP if they drop to 290, RDSB at 1,300 & BT below 150. Plus BATS of course....
Wild card on my watchlist is Capita.
ISA's are at the moment 37% invested with 63% cash.
Am a little worried that the US Indices are overpriced & a correction is possible....
Sorry to be slightly off topic
Good Luck all
CapPig
Hi Andsoforth
Yes agree with your thoughts. No point swapping and trying to be clever if only holding small amounts as trading costs eat in.
I've been well overweight with IMB since first buying in 2018. Reckon I've had 3-4 times as much as I would like at some stages.
Now down to 13% of p/f is a lot more comfrtable than 27% I had in December. The current 13% could easily be split bw IMB and BATS, like I have with my gold mining shares where I have 6% p/f in CEY and POLY each.
I was very happy with my BATS trade last month, making 7% profit in two weeks - would be nice to have a few of them every month. I think there is a good chance I will be buying BATS again soon, but only if I finance it with a sale from IMB, as determined to keep my tobacco sector allocation at this level as a max.
Looking at the charts, BATS may be heading down a bit after two hits at 2850-2875 in the last month. I would be looking to buy in below £27 if I can get chance.
GL my friend
Cheers - CSDI
HiCSDI
I am happy sticking with BATS. My holdings are small, so fees and duty eat up my capital if I swap about. The main businesses are certainly not in growth, but BATS holds better vaping brands than IMB, I think. Also they have some cannabis investment, that will probably end up being more valuable than many might think. IMB sold off their cigar division lately, which I always saw as a very profitable sector. I am happy to hold BATS, take the dividend, and watch developments.
Hi Capital
You can never "know" what is going to happen.
At the mo, I have 3 batches of IMB and none in BATS after my early sell at 2747 ish. Would have done better if waited another week before selling.
BATS got downgraded this week by one of the big brokers, so has dropped more than IMB recently.
My plan is to keep some skin in the game on long term basis, and trade 1 or 2 batches.
both are not favoured by the city, so my view FWIW is to sell around recent 6 month highs, BATS 2925 and IMB 1650 and hope to buy back 5-10% lower on trading basis.
For Long term investing, it is simpler to keep hold if already invested, or pound cost average your way back in if not invested.
If you are looking at dividend payers, there are some interesting options out there.
My p/f consists of the following HY shares (divi yield in brackets):
ASEI (5.93%) AEWU (9.05%) CEY (5.87%) GSK (6.06%) IMB (8.93%) NG. (5.4%) POLY (6.32%) SUPR (5.23%).
Other popular HY shares include AV. (5.19%) BP. (5.27%) BATS (7.74%) SSE (519%) VOD (6.02%).
Others less popular CMHY (5.26%) NCYF (8.54%) HHI (5.76%) PSN (7.32%) RIO (6.61%)
There are plenty other HY shares if you are looking for divi income. For research on divis I use:
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/
Not sure if that is any use if you are intent on investing in BATS only.
As always, nothing I say is suggested as advice, but more of an ideas base for consideration.
Cheers - CSDI
Re; our last post on divi drop predictions is not panning out too well, so far.
My wife & i worked out that over the last 3 dividends the SP dropped between 12 & 18% respectivly. With the drop within 35p of each other. Somewhere between 2,479 & 2,444
Although the timeframe was between 4 to 8 weeks. So still time to go!
Good luck all
CapitalistPig
Hi Andsoforth
It seems to me IMB has outperformed BATS for a while now.
It is probably becuase IMB suffered a bigger drop from ATH at £40 down to £13 while BATS only dropped about 50% form its comparative ATH. On the face of it both have similar P/E ratios and divi yields, but future growth seems non-existent.
I think there is chance here to switch from one to the other after periods of under-performance against the other.
I am sure running a chart comparison over any period of more than 3 months will highlight oportunities if so inclined.
These can be dovetailed with ex-div dates which are neatly spaced a few weeks apart, which often creates a short-term drop in SPs.
These are just my thoughts and ideas for others to consider.
GLA - CSDI
Downgraded from "overweight" to " neutral" by JP Morgan, but target remains 3100. Yield is sustainable, so holding on here.
Hi Cap-pig
Never easy to know when to get back in.
My main failing is buying back when SP is falling, rather than wait for an upturn.
BATS had a riliant run in March with a lot of up days.
Quite often we have seen sharp rallys at start of month and then drift down.
BATS had a biggish fall yesterday, when FTSE was going up, so hard to judge.
My plan is to buy back in around 2650 if chance arises.
No worries if not as plenty of other fish in the sea.
GLA - CSDI
Hi All, don't usually post but thought i would share my thoughts.
My wife & I both have S+S Isa's so bought Bats @ around 2550 each not too long ago for the dividend.
Sold both lots @ 2800 & 2828 respectivly as we thought the cap gain was too tempting and reasoned the SP would fall more than the 54p divi. Now looking to jump back in.
Looking back at previous 'dividend drops' on the chart we have noticed the drop can be way more than the dividend amount. For instance....
Ex divi 9/Jul/20 @ 3,000 dropped to 2,479 over 1 month. Down 18%
Ex divi 1/Oct/20 @2,754 dropped to 2,444 over 1 month. Down 12%
Ex divi 17/Dec/20 @ 2,835 dropped to 2,474 over 2 months. Down 13%
Last divi on 25/Mar price was around 2,830. Based on this price an average drop over the next month or so would be maybe 12%(?) Which would take a buy back level at 2,480.....
Apologies if we have goofed up with our sums, but any views appreciated
CSD......I am also invested in IMB and BATS and happy with both at these levels and will be topping up positions next week in ISA. Although I am not a chartist I see that the price of gold has formed a "reverse head and shoulders" which is normally bullish. Wells Fargo is predicting $2200 this year ! CEY and AAZ should benefit along with other gold producers.
Hi again Jr,
Yes mayhem when-ever I pick a share.
Note that IMB held up well today in comparison to BATS, maybe due to divis being reinvested.
As IMB is one of my core holdings (i.e paid too much for), I am not likely to sell before next ex div in about 6-7 weeks.
BATS is a trading share for me if it falls into my buy zone. Already got 13% of p/f in baccy sector against my target of 10% per sector.
As for POLY, yep I bought that last week only to watch it fall over 1% every day until yesterday.
with 6% of each CEY and POLY really need Gold to strat climbing.
Cheers & GL - CSDI
Hi CSDI
I still think we did the rational thing in selling when we did and in profit! Amazed at the levels it got to post divi, but current drop was to be expected. I note your get back in price, but I'm looking nearer 2600 - if it doesn't get there I will stay out.
Worried that you're also in Polymetal as we both cause negative mayhem wherever we go - topped up yesterday at 1392 which I thought was a bargain and it still dropped lower but thankfully has recovered.
I got out of IMB recently and will dip in again at a much lower price.
I'm certainly no expert but ticking over - by the way my call on Aviva and yours on LGEN agave both done ok.
Good luck.
I sold out 2 days before the ex dividend date, sentiment doesn’t really look strong for now, am hoping to get back in around the £25s region
Hi Jr
I'm in same boat but sold at 2747 as did not expect the further £1 rise to ex div date.
TBH, it's all total guess work. No one one knows what will happen tomorrow etc
I am hoping to get back in close to 2650 but no idea if it will get there.
I've got a number of shares on my watchlist and just waiting for any one to drop into buy territory.
With the FTSE lagging all other main markets, we are out of kilter, but if there is a leg down coming from over the pond, we are sure to feel it.
If you believe in charts then you might be able to selct a decent entry level, but in my eyes charts are worthless for predicting the future, but great for looking in the mirror.
GL whatever you choose.
in the meantime I am holding IMB too, so not sure if I really want to see BATS fall too far !?
Cheers - CSDI
Post divi drop currently 126p against dividend of 54p. Same old same old.
This share really takes a battering most times.
I jumped ship early at 2778 pre ex divi, and am looking to get back in but think it's got further to drop.
Any views?