Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Bought back in today seems to be holding 69 now so happy to leave it there and forget about it for a while.
Btw I am planning to hold this long term (5 years at least) so that's why I am not worried. If you are more short term on AZN I agree there is a lot of opportunities out there to make money quick. Hence why I haven't averaged down a lot recently and started new positions in dips for other stocks instead (as Astra takes up 15% of my portfolio). My mistake was not rebalancing earlier down to 5 to 10% as the Alexion news took me by suprise, then topping up so now don't want to give cash reserves to averaging down as I know it will take a year in my eyes to recover (will take the divi then to soften loss!)
Also remember Astra is not the only big company to suffer a 10% plus drop. Apple, FB, Tesla all has (and Apple had a blinding trading report). At the end of the day all these big companies produce sth of value (unlike Bitcoin), so time and patience will see macroeconomic and takeover pressures ease. The stock market always overreact whether its down or up in times of correction, depends how confident you are in what the company does and the balance sheet.
A few reasons:
1. The vaccine expectation has finally died. There only reason it went up to like top 90 plus so quickly was due to the vaccine hype. Until it is actually for profit it is not relevant. It has given Pfizer and Moderna to be more attractive investments short term.
2. Downward pressure for the SP even since Alexion deal announced. Driven it from 80 ever since. Worries about level of debt (until the effect or EPS generation from Alexion takes hold which will be a good year at least or 2)
3. Macroeconomics. Pound strength meant your big caps like BATs, Unilever etc naturally going down, and now the global outflow with equities with the worry for inflation.
4. More tempting opportunities at the moment. E.g Teslas and Bitcoin , recovery plays.
These downward pressures have driven the share price down regardless of the financial report so compared to last year I would say 70 lv is fair price for now. As the economy settles, it will all correct itself, hence why I am saying 80 end of year (not optimistic as some brokers saying 90)
Sheungy How do you explain 69 to 80?
Before the pandemic it was mid 70s. It has since doubled its profits, grown its EPS and has a potential in the future to charge for vaccines when the pandemic is over. Its pipeline is also in fruition with its drugs being approved for more indications around the world. Therefore it should easily be valued at 90, but the takeover of Alexion has probably lowered it to 80 until it reaps the benefit from more increased EPS from the Alexander pipeline. That's my opinion anyways!!
Surely at some point they're going to send he government a massive invoice for millions of vaccine doses. I'm tempted to double up at this price but not sure on its true value. Think loads of people bought in at the start of the pandemic. So was £80 overpriced???
The FTSE is down 2.5% so the drop isn't alarming. The NASDAQ is recovering now so I expect a bounce next week. Holding it definitely, I got reserves to buy the dip in the NASDAQ Fang stocks and we know this isn't AZN true value
I've cashed out, left it alone until things settle down took a bit of a hit but there we go
Good luck to you all.
Thing is like you say this is a defensive stock... The whole IT tech shares are down so you would think this would be a great "safe alternative" for investors.
I would not buy at 6912... at the moment.
My average price is 7412, and AZN is my worst performer .
Final dip? I would certainly think so. Of AZ are not being bought in riding markets, or now as a defensive stock in falling ones then I have absolutely no clue what's going on!
Final dip?
6980, it looks AZN is going to finish today below 70£.
For what it's worth, from a chart perspective a fib drawn from the most recent swing high of just over 8000 to today's low gives 7215 as the 23.6% and 7370 as the 38.2% retracement levels. Combine that with what I see as 4 waves down and I'd say there could be a push to 7210 as that wasalso prior support and could now become resistance followed by another final drop and hopefully then a new push higher. I can see the low being anywhere between 6670 and 6870. Above 7370 could change this analysis to a move higher I guess. I'm staying out now until I see confirmation either way.
Price was £81.60 just a couple of months ago. Harsh drop and i imagine many Pi,s got stopped out.
Once az start charging for the vaccine which i believe can be as soon as July ?? this could well be back attacking 100 again.
At last!