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$200m!? Really, is that as exploration licences or once in full production?
Agree SeisNav, not a lot of acerage left and none more promising than Arcs.
When you consider Dave Woods 30Mt estimate of copper in the area, the fact that First Quantum haven't found anymore sizable deposits on their acerage and the geology of Arcs acerage it is IMO easy to understand why we have so many interested parties.
The more we prove up, the higher any offer will need be.
Major Tom I tend to agree with you about the £200M valuation as things stand. I suspect Nick is holding out for considerably more than that though otherwise a deal would likely have already been concluded at that figure considering the multiple targets we have.
I honestly don’t see many other areas around the Kabompo Dome (outside of our licenses) which look like they have the right conditions (ie, located on the Lower Roan and near a major fault system) for a large ore body to develop. If you are looking to get a foothold in Zambian copper our licenses could be the only option…. That’s what I meant by the initial question.
To answer the question in the title. I personally believe Arcs licences are worth around £200m as of now.
I base my valuation on similar historical transactions. The most relevant historical transaction I can find is First Quantums, purchase of Kiwara back in November 2009.
Kiwara’s main asset was a controlling interest in a mineral prospecting licence in the Kabombo Dome, 40km East of Arcs Acerage. The licence area included the the. Kalumbila copper deposit, now Senitel and the then Kawako nickel prospect now Enterprise.
At the time of the purchase Kalumbila and Kawako were both Pre feasibility and at a similar stage of exploration as Arc are currently with thier prospects.
The purchase price was $260m = ~£190m at todays exchange rate.
Kiawara owned a larger stake of their license @ 85%. However, factor in the Copper price increase, iinflation, the fact Arc have more targets and IMO its easy to justify a £200m valuation.
SN
Many thanks for your courteous reply.
With lots of time available and likely to be confined to he house for a while with shielding (won't share on a public forum) I should be able to read and hopefully add to my knowledge assuming the grey matter is still responsive to material and terminology locked away and unused for years.
Cheers
Extracover, my geology knowledge is at best on par with yours but yes, I think at a simplistic level we are looking at copper enrichment as a result of very acidic brines stripping the copper from lower sedimentary rocks over large areas of the dome and depositing it higher in the sequence. From what I’ve read this movement of the fluids can happen through natural pathways through the rocks but major faulting will clearly make this easier and presumably increase the chance of large copper deposits forming.
I would recommend watching (Anglo American discovery manager) David Woods’ lecture on geology of the Copperbelt if you haven’t seen it already, it is very relevant to our licenses.
https://youtu.be/WfOQ2Qc_h1Y
Seis Nav
Yep agree it's a big PhD submission using lots of secondary published data as far as I can tell. Most of the submission seems to be focusing on correlating strata across the whole CACB system.
Hopefully we are on to a winner here despite the usual suspects that infect all high risk/reward boards. If I have read things properly are we talking about Cu deposits being washed into to sedimentary layers from a primary source? Answers in one syllable if possible please!!
My UCL subsidiary geog/geol knowledge goes back to the late 60s and unfortunately having never used it professionally such knowledge has got watered down over the years.
ATB
Here's a link to the relevant and informative "Geology and Ore Deposits of the Central African Copper Belt"
https://mountainscholar.org/bitstream/handle/11124/251/Broughton_mines_0052E_10371.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Great research SeisNav.
I'll be retweeting those maps in the weeks to come
Extracover, I would say browse rather than assimilate!
SeisNav
I guess you've managed to assimilate the findings of Broughton's thesis on the Geology and Ore Deposits of the Central African Copper Belt?
Cheers.
Thanks for the beer Kully :-)
SeisNav, great work there. I'm not going to even pretend that I really know what was just posted by you. It's beyond my pay grade, minimum wage I'm not. But many thanks for putting so much effort in your thesis of Arcm's licenses. Unlike one Bell * Ella10 end, I appreciate your efforts. Have a beer on me, 'me old mucker'.
Our region of the Domes is the last to be explored and possibly the last opportunity to find a major copper mine in this area. What do we know about the mines which have already been discovered which is common to all of them?
1. All of them are on or close to the upper boundary of the Lower Roan strata.
2. All of them are on or close to major fault lines.
Have a look at this image:
https://twitter.com/NavSeis/status/1438948359990087685?s=20
First thing to notice is that ARC controls at least one third of the Lower Roan boundary which is still to be fully explored. Second thing to notice is that all of our major targets fall along that Lower Roan boundary (area outlined in blue). The third thing to notice is that the major fault lines ALL run through our licenses and intersect with several of our targets. There are no obvious major fault lines indicated in the other two thirds of the Lower Roan not within our licenses. When you take a really good look at what we have then you realise just how smart the management have been in acquiring these key areas and continuing to increase the ownership.