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@max19 Yes agreed I think it will realistically be 12-18m before any 'real' production got underway as flow sheet would doubtless need tweaking et al so target FCF would be 18-24m which to be honest would be a good result. The point I was really trying to make is that NvS has the 'gap' covered by cash for 24m exploration so ARCM would not need to stop anything or compromise what it is doing or what options it may wish to entertain.
Meanwhile roll on the main event ... a transaction ATB APR
aprogerson, overall I agree that long term we could be seriously look to be production company, but what I am saying is that in the near term we should focus on securing a decent JV deal that will help us in a strong cash position to prove the real value of assets....mining ourselves to earn material cash income could be the next stage of development as a growing company. GLA.
@max19 If we were 'just' an explorer then why did NvS build the Kalaba plant, commission a scoping study and then want to expand it so that ARCM had the ability to produce more copper concentrate?
I think the answer is NvS views ARCM as PRIMARILY an explorer BUT realises that to fund exploration we need a secure, regular revenue stream that is 100% owned rather than going back to shareholders for funds and avoiding associated dilution which no one likes or wants.
Oh and having our own revenue means we also are financially strong so if we need to raise debt it is cheaper and if we enter into any deals we have a much stronger negotiating position ... sound familiar?
Simples ... all options now available, controlling 70% interest in licences, exclusive discussions with major (AAL) well advanced & technical study & DD completed, institutional investors and family offices onboard, directors heavily invested, extensive soil sampling completed, 3km drilling completed and ARCM position reserved, others majors interested and approached ARCM; did I mention we ALSO have lots of cash in the bank to fund our exploration for 2 years if any of the above goes to hell in a handcart?
Looks like all systems now primed and ready to go! Are we there yet ? ATB APR
Akhtar we are an explorer company not production one....I agree we can sell assets to have cash to fund mining but surely priority should be to secure a JV deal with at least one of the big boys (similar to one GGP has with NC...) IMHO....I personally prefer that arrangement on selling because long term we probably be better off as a growing company. ATB.
Why Max? With Cheyeza East we can start going into production with very little capital costs and an interesting cash generating business. When i talk about that I dont mean we wouldnt look at anyone joining but we dont have to sell the assets or company at a silly price.
If we didnt have any options and only one suitor we would be at the mercy, but we are in a strong position if AA dont offer anything else or another suitor comes along they can always come back but will have to pay much more.
Now is a fine balance of deal negotiations, I am sure an offer has been made and they are continuing to thrash out the deal, AA is £32bn MCAP if they are clever they will offer a mixture of cash and Shares, to get us tied in, also ARCM are expecting to receive $5m for CASA next month.
I expect AA to offer a hard bargain but they know there are others circling so they will need to be careful.
@peggy You know we all love you really ... > Rising copper price = as per my prior Scoping Study and ARCM Valuation posts already +50% FCF on Kalaba initial scoping study due to $9k/t copper vs $6.5k modelled = HUGE difference ! > ARCM tweets = (1) get the SP up by promoting ARCM & (2) get more II interest to support SP ... reason why is that any JV 'share' would be based on AAL 'investment spend' made vs. valuation of assets & MCap plays a part > Asset value = Without revenue ARCM assets will be based on resources declared (non-JORC) or comparables for which we have Sentinel that matches geography, country, geology, minerals & at least matches grade
Ref 1: Scoping Study calculation of £22.8m/annum FCF @$8k copper @14-Feb-2021 "Scoping Study & Goldilocks Scenario"
If Sentinel is a good comparison (it is and is only 40km from ARCM licence area) then a ARCM Tier 1 asset should be worth $550m / £410m at todays copper price so I would expect a figure in excess of $600m / £430m (or £300m to ARCM) to close a deal on ONE Asset.
If AAL transaction falls through because they don't want to pay enough I am 100% sure that there will be other players that will want to do a decent deal. ARCM have lots of options and at least 2x big assets they can flog or JV and still retain tehir own production facility to generate FCF to fund further exploration. I'm sure we are all wrong and you are right. ATB APR
Akhtar, do it alone is certainly not a viable option for minnows like us, just see what happens to SOLG(which I hold....)shares price ,and NM theirs CEO which insisted to go to production.... We certainly need at least one of the big boys on our books so hopefully NIck previous connection with AA could land us a decent deal...he certainly gives them the exclusivity extended time for DD for a good reason, but surely not for much longer and not at any silly price we hopes....we should hear soon enough what they offer, those biggies drive hard bargains so again hopefully NIck will be fighting our corner favourably,he is a strong and highly successful caricature.
where to start.... I'll make it quick, we have a amazing team. Amazing asset! Copper is flying! If your worried about a 5% rise or fall this share isn't for you. I always remember nick on crux podcast this is a 0 bagger 5 bagger 10 bagger or 20. If you guys want to sell I'll happily accumulate your shares as will lots of others. Have a good weekend all
Peggy, out of curiosity why do you stay invested here?. Genuine question. It's just if I was so negative,or had the outlook you seem to have with your investment I'd have sold long ago. Each to their own I suppose..... Atb
Why does ARCM need to keep tweeting if we are going to get a offer from AA? Do you think they are trying to get the SP to a decent level so when it doesn't happen there is still some sort of SP left? If AA were going to make a offer what are they waiting for? If the rising copper prices are really making a difference (which i doubt) wouldn't they have got in quickly? Lets see what Monday brings, not much i would think, Jam tomorrow..