George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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…I would of course hope to see ARB’s leverage margin increase on BTC as it’s production/profitability/hodl increases.
If you want to track movement in ARB against BTC then I would calibrate from about 8 January as a start point (that’s about the best fit of curves). Where we are now is roughly the margin of leverage I would hope for above BTC as it rises (no guarantee obviously). I think calibrating from March might be misleading as ARB was relatively over bought at that point.
Fair points. Although it does seem that every time we get a bounce from good news it is lost. Remember the green mining stuff a month ago? We got a boost from that yet here we are at the same levels again.
Generally I put the price of this at a rise or loss of 50p per 10k bitcoin with 200p at 50k being the starting point. This fits with the current price at 126p for a 35k bitcoin. This formula has worked since around March. That's why I'm more relaxed these days. I know if bitcoin goes way up again then we'll follow, but unfortunately also follow it down.
Will be interesting to see if the extra 50 bitcoin we mine changes this price formula as by your logic I'd then expect 226p at 50k bitcoin and 300p at 50k if your NASDAQ prediction comes off. My pessimistic viewpoint is that we'd see the 26p rise on confirmation of an extra 50 bitcoin that you predict but then settle back into the 200p = 50k formula. Same with NASDAQ. Nice initial boost but not held on to. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Xenor, I reckon you will be able to exit a lot, lot earlier than $70k.
I’m holding for the big bucks.
Xenor
“ Need bitcoin around 70k to do that however.”
I’m not asking what your break even price is, but remember that ARB will be mining an extra 50btc, due to the reduction in China’s mining capacity. Just at $40k/btc, that’s an EXTRA $2m/month revenue, which could be over £10m extra up to the end of the year, taking off some for China miners getting set up elsewhere, but adding som in for the extra machines we are getting.
£10m extra revenue at pe of ten is worth 26p per share EXTRA. When we get to Nasdaq, they could easily value ARB at a pe of 30+, which would be an EXTRA 75p per share.
I don't do it and don't intend to because it's high risk unless you know when to stop. Can guarantee the second I short bitcoin or ARB we'd have bitcoin running up to an all time high, or if I bought at 30k it would drop to 20k. At some point this pattern of moving between 30-40k will come to an end. Right now I'm happy to just keep holding my remaining shares until I can exit at break even. Need bitcoin around 70k to do that however.
Xenor
“ If you play it right you could make a fortune shorting at 38-40k and then flipping to buying at 30k.”
I totally agree with you. If you get any investment strategy right, you can make a fortune. Why don’t you go first. Let us know when you start shorting and we’ll see where you end up. Deal?
you could make a fortune shorting ? Yep you could also lose a fortune in a bull market , ever noticed the way the price dumps and pumps, BTC goes sideways 85% of its time , dumps happen in minutes as bull traps and pumps the same as bear traps , thats how the ponzi is rigged by whales . Your most likely to make the same fortune DCA into ARB a few alt majors with eth and btc. I think youve missed the opportunity shorting ARB given revenues are increasing, margins are increasing, new build is happening and china miners are imploding . As you probably also have with BTC (that was in hindsight at 62k) . Better off shorting VLRM back to 0.07 after all what would you sooner short , a company run by peter wall who knows BTC operations and is at the main table, or a company run by an old timer from a tax haven mysteriously clueless about the technology (soundbites) he's CEO for
I'll toast to that Delacey? Shorting BTC is like shorting a sacred cow.
Yes, it's soooo easy. Why didn't I think of that? Errr, because most retail investors short trading get it badly wrong?
Bitcoin keeps moving between 30-40k. I can definitely see why people short it and ARB. If you play it right you could make a fortune shorting at 38-40k and then flipping to buying at 30k.
It’s playing with fire to short a company like Argo especially still during a bull run. Couple that with BTC soon (next few months) to move up after recent bear trap patterns that beautifully line up with the Wycoff distribution that been developing over the last 6 months … I don’t wish bad on anyone but if you are shorting this then you get all you deserve
Last out gets burnt.