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MG. 60k? You didn’t give me a number for my theoretical scenario- is it 66p?
I’m afraid it is closer to rocket science than your one dimensional view. Bitcoin is up 25% from the recent lows but ARB has gained around 70%. You completely discount the fact that margins and earnings will rise disproportionately with bitcoin as well as the fact that the company’s performance (good or bad) is also a driver of the price. I feel that any comments I’ve made about bitcoin futures and the SP are realistic and I have been accused on here of erring on the pessimistic side.
Dilutions have their place. Like most here, I’m not a fan but remember that the capital should add to the MCap and be utilised to drive the company value by a greater amount than the cost. Argo have stated they have no plans to fund current growth through dilution and IMO are unlikely to revisit this until the MCap is much higher.
60k seems a bit excessive mg.
When BTC reaches 30k we will reach 60k it's really not rocket science. Honestly the amount of times I've seen people get carried away here after anh slight 'surge' and talk of 300%-500% surges.
Slow and steady and we will get there but for us to get into previous high's we need BTC well in excess of 100k. Our time will come.
I am just praying there is no more dilution. Anytime we have dilutions our ratio is worsened.
excellent post Hex. all good bullet points, which we should expect to be addressed, to some extent, in the H1 RNS. Personally, I am starting to think that PW is not the right CEO. I am not convinced that he can kick every member of the exec team in the arse to get them to perform / meet operational goals. Wen .02 cent power.....?
Yes Jamesy I suspect so as the results are not really any surprise as everyone can see how BTC has fallen so as long as there isn't a significant 'extra' item in the results I doubt there will be much movement come results day.
Personally I'm more interested in the cash position of ARB (and the rest of the balance sheet), commentary on progress at Helios (Immersion etc.), what outstanding financial commitments they have on new machines (something BITF laid out very clearly in their report) and outlook generally. Plus anything on Terrapool, Pluto and Argo labs.
Hexam - looking at MARA and RIOT, their quarterly reported losses don't seem to have had a negative impact on the SP so hope it is already all priced into ARB as well.
MG - Exactly thanks. What would you estimate Argo SP with Bitcoin at $32k, 3 EH/s, 125 coins/EH? By your logic, bitcoin would be 33% up so SP would be 66.5pish. If i thought that were the case you wouldn't see me for dust as all my crypto exposure would be in Bitcoin where I have no shot term liquidity questions or energy prices to worry about.
H - I had a chuckle at the ceo stating "As careful stewards of capital,.......... when they lost a fortune on buying btc at a price then selling the btc at a lower price.
"Miners have dropped much more than Bitcoin because the ‘all in’ margins are disproportionately affected by the drops and may even have gone negative."
I suspect all miners are currently operating with negative all-in margins. For example the 'all-in' cost for Bitfarm in Q2 was over $40k per BTC mined, obviously well above current BTC value, and I think this is fairly typical of miners (including ARB).
This contributed to their huge operating loss for Q2 of $173m although that was mainly due to the impact of the fall in value of BTC on both HODL and those that they sold in the quarter (total impact $148m loss).
Q2 results (in profit terms) are grim for everybody and ARB will be no exception I'm afraid when its results appear in the next few days/weeks.
James - erm....'' I suspect that if we had Bitcoin in the low 30's with expansion on course and efficiency in the right ballpark over the next month or two we could be pushing £1''
MG. If you reread my comment, it doesn’t say £1 at $30k. If you think miners will track Bitcoin movements proportionally, it suggests you have little knowledge of the industry. You do understand that there are costs and margins? Miners have dropped much more than Bitcoin because the ‘all in’ margins are disproportionately affected by the drops and may even have gone negative. This theory works in reverse should Bitcoin rise. Genuinely no idea why you would invest here if you think we will rise proportionally with bitcoin. There is less risk in holding bitcoin so suggest you seriously consider this even though I think your logic is flawed. Also worth pointing out that other miners have caps well in excess of twice ARBs with $24k bitcoin so although it’s the single most important factor, it is not the only Cap driver.
Argo bull - yes clearly trolling because I dare to voice an opinion. Are you just bitter you put all your eggs in one basket? Amature mistake.
30k doesnt get us back to £1 that's me just calling it as it is. Sorry you don't like it.
Mystery guy trolling again. Boring.
I’m not sad , I’m a happy person .
Chopsing. Jeez your sad to actually go through the process of digging out my old posts or do you have them written down in your diary? I also haven't changed my tone im still negative haha
Sorry james but absolutely no chance of us reaching £1 with BTC at 30k. You are dreaming.
I would be very disappointed if a $50k Bitcoin resulted in a £1 ARB. If that were the case we'd be as well buying bitcoin. I suspect that if we had Bitcoin in the low 30's with expansion on course and efficiency in the right ballpark over the next month or two we could be pushing £1. I try not to get too carried away with where Bitcoin could go, but if we could move through the 30's towards the 40's by turn of the year, we would likely have numerous options to fund the intel machines. If we could fund and install them whilst pinning down a competitive fixed rate energy contract, potentially produce 600+ Bitcoin per month - that would be rather nice.
Mystery guy, you’ve changed your tune
.13 Jun 2022 08:49
Argo is the epitomy of a get rich quick ponzi scheme.
A quick race to the bottom now.
Good thing is our alignment has dramatically improved. 50k BTC brings us back to £1. Hopefully BTC continues upwards and Argo don't use this alignment as another reason to further dilute.
Time will tell.