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There is so much analysis out there regarding BTC its ridiculous. If you look at price history it often does 30-40% corrections before heading higher in bull runs. It did it in 2015, 2016, 2017. I'd expect the very bottom of BTC to be around $8500 (approx. 40% from highs) if we are in bull mode. Interestingly enough that is also where a GAP needs to be filled for CME futures too, so there will be huge amounts of buy orders waiting around between 8.5-9k. As to ARB, this at the moment is just following BTC price, which just show's the market doesn't quite get it. It will be probably be reporting a similar profit next month, and as more mining hardware comes online this should increase in the months ahead.
Bitcoin has topped and begun a pullback, market participants posting throughout social media sites have still been quite stubborn regarding this correction. A recent perusal of the largest crypto youtubers sees titles suggesting a run to lofty targets such as $42K, and even $100K, being imminent.
Yet, while social media pundits are currently still quite bullish, we fully expect to see some turn to look for new bear market lows before this is over. As R.N. Elliott outlined 80 years ago, second wave retracements make most feel as though the bear market has returned. In fact, this is how it is described in The Elliott Wave Principle:
“Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. . . At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay.”
Furthermore, Bitcoin permabears such as Roubini and Schiff should loudly renew their assertion that Bitcoin is a scam and/or a bubble. And these assertions should gain support and become louder as Bitcoin drops down to its ideal retracement target between $5,523 (.618 retracement) - $7,857 (.328 retracement).
In conclusion, we have been bullish on Bitcoin since December 2018, as evidenced in our articles and public interviews. However, our last public article on Seeking Alpha noted that this market was overheated and was about to experience a correction/pullback. That correction is now upon us and could last a couple more months.
Lastly, $4300 is the line between a potential larger breakdown and the resumption of this bull market. As long as this market remains above that level, we are looking up toward as high as a six figure bitcoin price in the coming years.
Note: While we are listed as being long-term bullish on Bitcoin, please recognize that we see a high probability for a larger-degree pullback to depress prices over the coming months before resuming the bull market rally.
So which one is wrong ???? It’s one of those stocks I want to buy another 100k as I know it’s the right thing but little voice of doubt in the back of mind saying it’ll drop more in the short term.
Agreed Triggerboy.
For clarification... ARB is LSE main market. Not AIM
Didn’t look at this yesterday but pretty much what I thought would happen did, therefore tells me there’s some people trading this share that don’t understand the fundamentals of this company. Crypto is not my area of expertise but read a lot and understand that whilst BTC is important in the level of profit made it doesn’t detract from the fact that anything about 2k is profit ! How many businesses quoted on AIM can actually say they make a profit and forecast it to grow significantly.
Not unexpected to those who follow Avi Gilburt on seeking alpha. His Elliott Wave analysis sees bitcoin retracing to 4500 before 65,000 yes 65,000 have a look. I should have listened butwas spiked here at 9.3 will be averaging down on further BTC weakness.
This is the problem with illiquid stocks even on main market sd all vol and prices marked down. BTC still miles ahead of where we need it almost like a $180 oil price and BP sp gets marked lower! It’s good that the BoD see the importance of regular newsflow. Trek
Need to stop looking at daily / weekly bitcoin prices now for this share. Bitcoin Halving is 10months away, as it approaches ever nearer it will put upwards pressure on prices. Argo are in an amazing position to now take advantage of this , things are positive.
I suspect this will dip in the morning, if it does we know that the pricing of this stock is totally linked to the price of BTC at the moment, irrelevant of the company fundamentals, I’m happy for it stay sub 9p until the end of Q4 to allow top ups then I think it’ll take off. I amazed how little interest this stock attracts.