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Certainly been a nice long chill out time for anyone that dumped this 9 months ago.
Let's hope argo can rapidly start catching
up the other mid tier miners, still a good few months to go yet no doubt.
Let's see what the Q2 results show & any intel news to brighten it up.
I’m happy with that, I wasn’t expecting north of 200 if I’m being honest. Sept/Oct time will be more interesting, this is holiday and chill out time!
Hexam - projecting a constant percentage rise was a bit tongue in cheek. It was however intended to make the point that the proportional increase in production month on month was decent given all of the challenges IMO.
I agree Jamesy that 0.5 EH per month is close to what they were projecting but the reason I’m not sure they will achieve it is that they haven’t got funding yet for the intel rigs and that could be tricky. They’ve already said they may push back delivery.
Even if they do get there they still need to improve productivity to offset difficulty increases to get the sort of numbers you’re talking about.
Pokerchips - the grid has just survived the hottest July in history in Texas. Obviously they would like to have capacity to sustain loads without curtailment payments so they have a financial incentive to increase capacity going forward. Looks like we have managed to hit reasonably competitive efficiency through this historic July so I think the FUD is being exagerated and it isn't my biggest concern.
"If the downtime was equivalent to RIOT at 28% it could suggest that underlying efficency was up there with the leaders".
It wasn't equivalent to riots downtime.
This was shown when the companies both tweeted their downtime at the early stage of July.
But yes its very strange how its not shown clearly. I would imagine people would then see the power costs more clearly
" Presumably all these magawats running 24/7 will help them invest in capacity going forward "
they need the capacity NOW and the cost of the investment is rapidly going up...
Hexam - thought projections were'nt a million miles away from 0.5 EH per month and we have the presumed decrease in curtailments.
I don't prescribe to the FUD around Texas grid. Curtailments are very annoying, but mining loads are great for Ercot. They run 24/7 but can be switched off at the drop of a heartbeat. This in manna for the electricity companies and likely why RIOT appear to have negotiated such a good contract. Most renewable energy is switched off most of the time as you need to resource for peaks and electricity is too difficult/expensive to store. Crypto loads are a constand significnat load so could be seen as storing electricity in $. The downside is clearly that to be effective they need to be interruptable. I do worry that in apparently not having negotiated the curtailment contracts whilst we are already reliant on Ercot they have more cards, but they still need the revenue and flexibility that we offer them. Presumably all these magawats running 24/7 will help them invest in capacity going forward as well to play against capacity issues.
…and we won’t get an extra day each month :)
"If we could increase haul by 22% month on month we'd exceed 500 coins/month by December."
Yes, but difficulty won't decrease 4% every month and it's unclear how long they can keep adding 0.5 EH each month (though on the flip side productivity should hopefully improve considerably and we won't switch off any more machines).
Markets often take some time to absorb and process news. I remain confident that on balance this represents solid progress towards what I want to see around the end of the calendar year. To be honest I am surprised at the market reaction so far. If we could increase haul by 22% month on month we'd exceed 500 coins/month by December.
Genuine question - why did Arb not give more detail around time curtailed rather than a vague statement about some afternoons? Hiding a significant proportion of downtime or using the lack of clarity to cover up efficiency that remains below par. If the downtime was equivalent to RIOT at 28% it could suggest that underlying efficency was up there with the leaders.
https://kutkutx.studio/category/the-disconnect-power-politics-and-the-texas-blackout
Hexam
Texas runs it own power grid so they cant pull power from many other sources.....the strain is considerable
They are in effect having to take from the wind power to increase the supply as demand rockets upwards ....if the actual wind power supply drops , the state could end up with blackouts .....
Yes but only if the unexpected happened - which it didn't - apart from the shutting down of old machines which wasn't significant enough to get it below 200 but was enough to push it below my estimated range, along with the curtailment which thankfully didn't seem anywhere near as bad as RIOT's.
" In extraordinary circumstances like that..."
they seem a bit naive with regards to Texas summers and the overall distinct way the power grid is run there ....February can be as cold as July/Aug is hot
"but 219 is pleasantly surprising to me..."
That's because you really don't seem to have a clue.
----
Excuse me but you yourself said there is a chance there could be less than 200 coins mined this month.
Obviously my low 223 btc prediction wasn't close enough for him
"but 219 is pleasantly surprising to me..."
That's because you really don't seem to have a clue.
Chance of less than 200, between 220 and 240, should be over 300. Haha
Im not pleased with this rns to be honest but 219 is pleasantly surprising to me
"if it is only mining at about 50% capacity after the rig "retirements"
Its been like this for a long time, these rigs didn't all become knackered or unprofitable this month, most have probably been of turned off for months when btc price fell.
Certainly is looking odd having all argos mining power in texas when the power in Canada is alot cheaper. Maybe it will be sold off
how can they justify paying a crew to maintain the canadian site, if it is only mining at about 50% capacity after the rig "retirements"? What is the plan to acquire assets, so that the available power at the canadian site is being efficiently used / exploited?
Can't be bothered to check now
But I think they have 500PH still working there. Older rigs though obviously
so, after retiring the s17s, are the canadian sites mining anything at all, except for a few ZEC?
Lots to take in on that update and I think a mixed bag. The numbers are in line with (sensible) expectations, may be a bit on the low side but this can be explained by some older machines being switched off completely and Texas curtailment (though we don't know exactly how much).
On the plus side for me:
- Productivity is up to around 100 EH per BTC so a step in the right direction but still well behind the leading miners (over 130). Improvement due to switching off some of the older machines which I think was inevitable
- Reduced exposure to the Galaxy Loan
- Looks like they may have increased the depreciation schedule on machines from 3 years to 5 years which makes sense (and will make profits over at least the short to medium term appear higher)
- Also looks like installation of new machines may have accelerated a bit in July with around 0.5EH added?
- Completed the machine swap
On the down side:
- The productivity issue is still a long way from sorted even though one of the main contributing factors (inefficient older machines) has been addressed. Best to wait I think until we know everything is up and running in Texas though to understand where we really stand on that
- Margin down to 37% because of higher electricity costs which increased by over $750k in the month or by around $1,250 per coin mined - about 10% up on last month
- HODL getting worryingly low and no update on funding/liquidity position
Just my views though.
Jamsey
"Current hash rate capacity has been temporarily impacted by the ongoing relocation of a portion of the Company’s mining fleet, from a third-party hosting facility to Riot’s Whinstone Facility, which is ultimately expected to further reduce production costs."