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from memory 2 billion ish
Yes their market cap was impressive.
How much did they raise in the way of funds overall through dilution?
Zcash was an under estimated equivalent of 12.5 btc for last month from what I could see.
would be interested if anyone else can calculate it differently ?
AB, you say this big bonus everyone does about Mara, but you also have to realise MARa created so much more money than argo did for shareholders in it.
The company had a 6 billion market cap for mining 50 coins last january, When the company soars like that 200 million to 6 Billion! rewards are going to be handed out especially in the states. I dare say if MARA had utilised its postion correctly and used those funds a lot more wisley they'd be in a better position today.
If Argo hit 6 billion mcap do you not think the bod would be rewarded? How many shares did pw option at when this soared ?
The costs can be broken down a bit.
costs you have to pay now - electricity, wages, interest
investment related costs (new dc's, machines etc)
bookkeeping costs - non cash flow costs (depreciation, share based payments)
Most people are looking at the first category of keeping the lights on when they are looking at costs - is it profitable to mine. Really that comes down to the electricity costs because you're going to have to pay wages/interest still anyway.
However ultimately you have to be able to cover all the different costs to show profitability.
Some of the bigger miners have paid very large bonuses so they'll have high costs there. Also I think MARA paid top dollar for their machines, so will have large depreciation. I don't know about the 40k it sounds high. They diluted to buy them so won't have interest costs, but I think it's more that they/3rd party can't get their data centre finished.
If BTC stays at 30k or less for another 12 months I think we'll see some miners go. Argo to me seems perfectly fine if BTC stays at 30k for a year. If it goes under 15k it would be a panic across the industry.
AB 'I'm not sure any company (bitcoin miner or not) supplies the nitty gritty information we'd like to see.'
This is my problem with the industry at large, they kind of want to hide the number as its so high.
No one is divulging the all in numbers. You have to do a 'Hexam' to uncover it. Ive realised for a while that Capex and Opex numbers do not leave btc firms in extreme levels of profitiablility, especially of those fimrs are mining btc all in for 50k plus
You bet ! My whole point about hocus pocus accounting. Some firms that have the btc cost all in at 50k plus, Goodbye those miners!
Im hearing mara cant put on the s19's unless bitty goes above 40k
Cool thanks Hexam that clears it up for me.
"I'm saying by Q4 if they have started phase 2 build out (the remaining 600MW) that there might be additional costs again but maybe these get accounted for in a different section"
I'd be surprised if most (if not all) of any costs associated with phase 2 do not go through capex. This may well include time spent on phase 2 by anybody already employed. As such these costs will not hit the bottom line until production starts from phase 2 and it all comes through depreciation starting from then.
I'm not sure any company (bitcoin miner or not) supplies the nitty gritty information we'd like to see.
AB - none which I know of, which is what makes it such a punt in reality, I would imagine both Riot and ARB have such info and failure to disclose does really point to a significant risk issue, since there is no real commercial advantage, other than fund raising, for holding it bk since the detail would not be disclosed
AIG it would be nice to get more info for sure. Do you know if any of our peers supply more detailed information?
Hexam, yes there'll be more staff end of Q1 than at start of Q1, so wages and bonuses would increase going forward you are right. I'm saying by Q4 if they have started phase 2 build out (the remaining 600MW) that there might be additional costs again but maybe these get accounted for in a different section - not sure how that works.
Largely agree AB but I don't think you can say that "there'll likely be more costs than this assuming they start pushing ahead with Phase 2. These won't be related to phase 1 mining".
The Q1 costs will not include a lot of the additional ongoing costs associated with Helios as it was not operational then so I would expect ongoing staff (and other) costs to be higher as we move through the year. I also expect there to be significant upward pressure on share based payments (more staff plus need to stay competitive).
It is irritating that they dont publish such essential information
whether bullish or bearish, it would not hurt for these costs to be made public (even the various variables), in order to help investors and especially since PW/ARB used to promote openness and transparency and what the basis of expansion was/is
I have underestimated production but overestimated costs. For example I have assumed 0 immersion/overclock benefit and a high network hash, so the 495 monthly BTC is very achievable and I would actually expect it to be more.
I have also annualised the share based payments but in reality they are probably mostly a Q1 cost.
However there'll likely be more costs than this assuming they start pushing ahead with Phase 2. These won't be related to phase 1 mining but some costs will likely get lumped in together in the accounts so I don't think we'll ever see the crystal clear picture, but
Less than 10 BTC worth of ZEC mined a month just now so this isn't a significant figure going forward.
It gives a ball park at least and an idea of cost sizes.
FP - Certainly wouldn't 'poo poo' you as you are perfectly correct. ARB is currently operating around 80% of what its EH suggests even before allowing for the extra coming from zcash so really it is less than 80%.
In my numbers I assumed the 80% improves to 95% (comparable to other miners but in reality still worse really as again this includes additional BTC from zcash conversion). The reason for the improvement assumed is two-fold. First Q1 suffered from bad weather and possible testing/moving of machines. Both are (hopefully) short term factors. Second, the new machines should perform close to or at 100%.
AB has effectively assumed 100% efficiency as his approach works from the theoretical EH share - but again with no extra allowance either from zcash.
All the above is before any immersion benefits too.
Thanks AB and good that you used a different approach as that acts as a check in itself.
If I do my numbers on the same basis (i.e. without depreciation and before immersion) I get $18k per BTC so a fair bit higher and the main reasons are that my electricity costs are higher (I suspect yours may be more accurate) but I also assumed 'fixed' costs went up 50%. I think it is unrealistic to suppose that they remain unchanged as the organisation continues to grows (more staff etc.). Most 'Fixed' Costs don't stay fixed in practice.
So I think anywhere between your number and mine is reasonable but as you say there are too many uncertainties to even begin to pretend any particular number is accurate. At least it gives (without depreciation or capex) a ballpark guide though as to the operational cash costs per month per BTC - before immersion - though share based payments are also a non-cash cost.
I think anyone can see from the last good few months of mined numbers... 1.6 EH is nameplate only.
The old T17s & S17s are probably some where between 2.5 and 3 years old.
I cant be bothered to work it out as I'm sure it will only get poo pooed here. But if you knock of the mined zcash off the monthly numbers . I expect it works out about 1.3 worth of EH
ps. All costs in USD of course.
Chaebol, that's more a cash flow question. If they pay off loans obviously the interest payments come down.
If BTC goes on another bull run they need to take that opportunity to pay down debts.
Thanks for that ab,
Interest is calculated in your payments, How about the actual repayments of the loans? As these do become large costs further on down the line. Ie repay 2024 etc.
Hexam/Harchris, I've taken a stab below.
I see network hash being less than 300EH by year end, but will use 300EH for calculations (extrapolate the peaks from the network hash charts).
Argo to have 5.5 EH by year end, which would mean 1.83% of the network, which would be 495 BTC a month (30 day month).
This does not take into account any immersion/overclocking benefit.
200MW of Phase 1 electricity assumed all used, which at 2 cents per kwh would be 2.88mil per month.
Note there'll be additional electricity for Quebec, say 500k a month.
Interest payments:
$200,000 per month (Galaxy loan mentioned in end of year accounts)
NYDIG - Electrical infrastructure - $183,287 per month.
NYDIG - Machines - $706,000 per month if fully utilised.
Senior Notes - $281,458 per month
Additional 50mil finance - assumed all debt at 12% would be 500k per month.
Total Interest = 1,870,745 per month.
Annualised costs based on Q1 results:
Consulting fees = 69k a month
Professional fees = 420k per month
General and admin (wages, etc) = 1 mil per month
Share based payments = 500k a month.
Costs before depreciation = 7,239,745
All in costs per coin before depreciation = 14,626
Depreciation - still to try and work out. We don't know machine costs so will be a rough estimate.
I can guarantee these numbers will be wrong, but it gives a rough ballpark. Let me know what I've missed.