Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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What’s the general feeling of revenues being sliced in half for miners? Expectations of unprofitable hash coming offline? Difficulty dropping? Miners diluting to mine at a loss and leaving hash online?
Chaebol. maybe we may get a santa claus rally. lol. it does happen in the markets but not every year. november / december. ETF approval, catch up and santa claus rally in the markets. i think that will do and then let us get prepared for the parabolic move in 2024/ 2025. make xmas a bit sweeter. i do think the ETF will come before xmas. i mean it could be january but a gut feeling before xmas. anyway all sound good over the next 20 months and we just have to put up with the crap like now.
Novembers arent so kind to BTC like Octobers are........ but then the Blackrocks et al werent so close either.........
Bitcoin’s performance in November has varied over the years. Here are some historical trends:
In November 2018, Bitcoin slipped from $6,376.13 per unit to $4,009.97, losing 37% that month.
In November 2019, Bitcoin’s USD value dropped from $9,235.35 per unit to $7,047.92 per Bitcoin, sliding 23.68% lower.
In November 2020, Bitcoin prices moved upwards from $13,737.11 on Nov. 1, to $18,177.48 by the month’s end.
In November 2021, Bitcoin’s USD value saw the price tap BTC’s lifetime high against the greenback at $69,044 per unit on Nov. 10, 2021. However, BTC started the month at $63,326.90 and ended November at $57,248.46 per BTC, losing 9.59% during the course of the month.
In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to around $16,0003. The average closing price for Bitcoin (BTC) in November 2022 was $17,600.81. It was down 16.2% for the month
Bitcoin needs to get back up to 34 thousand. these miners are extremely delicate to any minor drop in bitcoin. so we have 2 chances of a decent move up in miners in november in my opinion. 1...ETF approval sending bitcoin to at least 38 thousand and maybe a good bit more. 2... catch up. it has been that bad for miners catch up can happen . it is just the timing of it. roll on november. lol.
Yep. i agree. i still have my clean spark shares that i bought at 2p. holdin strong. get in early and avoid buying late is my motto.
Qbt is just a punt. typical aim market. it went down alot and then with some news but no real hard evidence goes up and then back down again. winners and losers but likely they will all lose that hold unless real hard evidence happens. and real hard evidence is unlikely. more than likely i expect sharp ups and downs on qbt until it ends up 0.1 p and game over. in no way should that share be mentioned with top notchers like clean spark, mara, microstrategy who will do well in big bitcoin rises over the next 20 months. even argo is more safer than qbt and that is saying something. however worth keeping an eye on it and any real hard evidence[ very unlikely] then get in quick. but as i say extremely unlikely. an aim punt.
Actually think Argo held up well compared to Qbt which has fallen 50% from highs hit this week but then we didn’t get the 400% rise they did.
Looking for Argo to steady until news.
Mate, I think you need to get out more. 😂
We are due a bull run, maybe this is it! BTC is looking very bullish. I haven’t seen btc like this for a long time, fingers crossed 35k should be coming up.
Yeah I think we get there - and having these big institutions suddenly pro-bitcoin pushing to their clients will make a difference. ETF hopefully approved/live before end Jan (sooner would be even better).
Argo's rigs are about half way through their hosting agreement also - which will probably not get renewed let's face it. As they are immersed they have been modified for this purpose - so I don't see them being moved elsewhere - maybe Galaxy buys them for a token amount - who knows. Really they need to get a CEO as the temporary one is not really doing anything much. To be fair I'm not sure what a new CEO could do as they are a bit stuck...
I'm keeping the faith too mate, despite everything key thing is we're still relatively early in the cycle. Everything still feels pent up and ready to go.
Miner market caps are always a bit of a dark art but imo newness of hardware is being factored in much more now, especially as cheap electricity of last bull is no more. Rigs become effectively obsolete on account of weaker energy efficiency on a scarily fast timetable. Cifr and Clsk are benefiting from having expanded so aggressively this year, I like them both. At the other end of the scale of course we have Argo's creaky old rigs.
"The biggest questions/fears that always nag at me and i guess for most investors here..... is this space financially viable ?"
I think the answer is No as it's a race to the bottom - and invested $ vs what has been built/achieved is insanely bad - however during a bull run there's a few months when everything looks different and it's all worth it - and if the ETF moves the price along to a good degree then there'll be a period of time (say a year) when it is until difficulty catches up again.
I am hoping to be out of miners in the next 6 months but let's see what happens.
I must admit that I do like CLSK now being regularly included in the big boys club - I guess they've taken the place of HUT now - just need to step over RIOT and all will be good. I've not looked into CIFR - do you think there's a reason their MCAP is higher than CLSK?
When the dollar retraces the indexes go up - but agree that it's a slightly looser correlation as sometimes they don't move in step. From what I've been reading, BTC was just being traded most of this year - a build up of longs or shorts, then liquidation of these by market movers, but in the last week or so there's been heavy spot buying related to ETF, or ETF expectations. I'm feeling pretty good about it all just now (no matter what my screen is telling me!)
Yeah posted about the JPM report at the time, also believe they gave Cifr some credibility just by deeming them significant enough to rate, albeit neutrally, when off most traders' radars.
Imo the dollar link is much more tangential. Nasdaq totally agree, what gives theory weight is this unusual phase since August of the decoupling of tech stocks and btc, when traditionally both tended to move in tandem. Could be just a blip rather than new paradigm.
Miners being low at the moment is in line with DXY/S&P/Nasdaq movements from what I can see. When Mara was near 20, the indexes were a lot higher. If/when these start moving the right way, miners will get some love.
As for issued shares I have:
Oct-19 Mara 216,894,234
Oct-16 Riot 198,681,632
Aug-09 CLSK 152,643,328 (plus some performance bonuses after this date)
So Mara is still lead Market Cap due to the extra shares on issue. I think Mara should be more ahead of Riot than it is, but I also think Riot is overvalued. Although with all their energy credits they are actually a good bet going into halving. Mara is paying too much for hosting, and this will become very evident post halving. However if BTC runs then this all changes and Mara becomes more attractive due to the amount of hash they have.
So what happens next? ETF still to play out - I like to think this has been underplayed and will kick start an early bull due to the limited supply of non hodl'd coin. Fed need to change tack also which would add support - think this will come.
I still feel CLSK is the choice for now - it has some catching up to do - just ask JP Morgan.
Great deal on the S21's also:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827876/000095017023052766/clsk-ex10_1.htm
Yeh definitely a big riddle. If we are wrong on Mara then the whole market is kaput. It used to be so simple, btc went up mara went up btc went down mara went down. Now we seeing this madness, like you, i believe this isnt halving related, if it were i think the market would be choosing winners and losers, atm its all miner losers.
The way volume has been on mara last few days suggests some big accumulations. I hope this is the calm before the storm but have a horrible feeling we getting poked till next year.
Ill keep adding at these lunacy levels when I can and keep my trust for better days in the future with this.
GL x
It's a true riddle mate. What I'm especially grappling with is that momentum shift in August, you could almost pinpoint the date. We know btc retraced around that time, not much dramatically than normal, but for miners it appeared to mark this new phase where they broke the umbilical chord.
What did the market suddenly see differently at that time? Halving always signalled years in advance so it can't be market just noticed one day revenues would be halved soon. Anyway market is wrong that's my take and if needs be I'm going down with this ship.
I've been following the COPA v Craig Wright UK court cases closely and it led me to do some of my own research into the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto and the creation of the name, the system. I thought I'd share my theories on here for your perusal:
National Security Agency (NSA) create SHA-256
Tatsuaki Okamoto is noted in the NSA paper:
HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH
18 June 1996
https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
Someone sees the opportunity to create Bitcoin (Bit & coin are mentioned in the paper & Okamoto is credited for his work) having read the papers whilst having an understanding and deep interest in the topic specifically this paper I consider of Okamoto's important to Bitcoin;
Universal Electronic Cash, This paper proposes the first ideal untraceable electronic cash system.
file:///C:/Users/44792/Downloads/3-540-46766-1_27.pdf
That person wishes to secretly acknowledge the NSA and Okamoto whilst wishing to remain anon because he may have borrowed some of Okamoto's work from the Universal Electronic Cash or even be part of NSA.
That person includes NSA is the creators name by adding the S to the first name and the NA to the surname as a reference to the NSA paper
Keep the 'at' to create 'Sat' as in Sats and add in 'oshi' “Oshi(推し)” means a person who I support.
If you are someone’s big fan, it means your oshi(推し) is the someone in Japanese.
So I'm guessing the creator of Bitcoin was a big fan of Okamoto and his contribution to the NSA paper
Hence the clever use of 'oshi' 'NSA' and o 'kamoto'
Tatsuaki Okamoto
S at 'oshi' NA 'kamoto
https://www.rd.ntt/e/organization/researcher/fellow/f_001.html
Obviously just me theory but as Fox Moulder would say "The Truth is Out There" ;-)
Mara 25 EH 19.1 EH hashing Announced future hash to a total of 30 eh
Riot 10 EH 6 EH hashing Lol announced future hash to 23 eh
CLSK 9.6 EH 9.6 eh hashing Announced future hash to 16 EH
Mara has doubled its production this year and hasnt felt like its been rewarded at all. Riot mine less now than they did in January and CLSK mine about the same.
Why isnt growth being rewarded but when mobs announce forward hash build outs they are rewarded for it, I know sheds are worth money but they also arent ie ask Argo. Seems to me that Mara is being continuously punished for completing its growth cycles.
Mara should be trading way and above its nearest rivals as its nearest rivals arent anywhere near Mara nor are they going to be near soon.
The biggest questions/fears that always nag at me and i guess for most investors here..... is this space financially viable ? Are new regs coming for North American Miners? is there new tech coming thats going to make the most current up to date mining fleets obsolete?
It's brutally disappointing whats gone on with this price action, should have been a great Chrimbo for us Mara holders top slicing, instead we seeing QBT winners with a 4 fold share gain!
Bit of good news...... Funds are adding heavily right now, so maybe this is the final memo before we really go one. The kids Xmas's depend on this x;)
GLA and keep on smiling x
Thin gruel buddy but I take your point. 1 day in 10 ain’t so bad.
It's true over last few weeks tended to be case even if bitcoin up, if Nasdaq down = miners down. If both down like today = down squared.
Once the Nasdaq stops giving us hell we may see mining stocks play catch-up. Unless I’m just coping.
And BTC still looks bullish.......coiled spring or a big change are incoming for the miners........ I just have no idea which way its going to go..........
Steve? x
Also Mara is down a bit less than Riot 🥳 desperate times calls for taking those wins where we can
"Hey there's one positive atleast... The miners are correlated with btc again, it goes down 0.5% and our leveraged investments (ehm,...urr...bets) go down 3-5%.. Phew"