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You've lost me, wealdpwr:
When you said:
1/ Secondly, the only way you can come up with the 4p figure is to perform an NPV ( which can be manipulated by the chosen time horizon), decide on a multiple and then divide by the share outstanding.
what did you mean by "decide on a multiple"?
2/ Of course you can use an NPV to evaluate a share price!
What do you do in the case of any long-term contract, wait for each periodic receipt to be accounted for?
Ocelot
To be clear I never suggested a multiple is used to determine an NPV. Secondly, my broader point is you cannot use a hypothetical nor a real NPV to determine a share price. And this case , it is strongly hypothetical!
GLA
4p = GL's calculation of the Net Present Value of Saltfleetby.
Tack on, say, a modest 2p for Balcombe and the other assets = total of 6p per share.
Current share price: 1.15p.
Discount to underlying assets per share: 81%.
wealdpwr,
The extent to which the NPV of Saltfleetby is taken into consideration in order to evaluate the share price is for each investor to decide;
there's no multiple involved in determining an NPV;
4p is a round figure reflecting the nature of the assumptions made in determining it. If GL had come up with 4.017p per share, then the precision of the figure should have set alarm bells ringing, but he didn't.
Ocelot
Your NPV is at best fuzzy math...There is a real difference between NPV and where the market values a company.
Secondly, the only way you can come up with the 4p figure is to perform an NPV ( which can be manipulated by the chosen time horizon), decide on a multiple and then divide by the share outstanding. Curious how it conveniently, translates to 4p ( if that is in fact, Lord Lucan's maths), seems like it was backed in.
correct
TBH I think I'll drop out of here for a while until there is some solid news.
Nothing is really going to change and I'll eave double faced crook etc the pleasure of ramping to make 0.1p to their own devices
Suppose it's a question of probabilities:
if you think there is no chance of Saltfleetby coming good, you totally ignore the NPV;
if you think there is every chance it will come good, you integrate the NPV in full;
between those 2 extremes, there is a wide range of probabilities.
Yes, everyone should dyor.
I do feel it will be 10-12 months before investors will see how this is realistically doing and will perhaps be the minimum timeframe for investment (unless trading) for new investors.
Too long for many new investors to wait, perhaps, but for the many LTH's they will have little option if they wish to see some return to their losses.
A good opportunity for some (new money), but a long play for the many (old money).
Crocqman,
Imho, you are not disagreeing with me, because your comments do not change the fact that the calculation of the NPV of projected cash flows provides a value now, today.
But you are arguing that the NPV should not yet be taken into account in evaluating Angus's share price.
That is a matter each investor will decide for him/her-self.
Disagree, Ocelot.
The 4p is based on a mid-range production target which may not happen for perhaps 10-12 months, if at all, depending on permissions and feasibility.
There is a chance the field may be classed as non-commercial to re-introduce and the 2.5m then used for decommissioning, so for now (imo), I feel it cannot be incorporated into projected cashflow and the current SP reflects this.
The market will remain very cautious towards Angus for the foreseeable future until they show positive results and (again imo), normal market valuation methods will not apply here. until that happens.
This may change once the relative permissions are obtained and a complete plan of operations is released, but I feel there will be no reflection of Saltfleetby in the company SP until it is producing to the levels anticipated.
I should reiterate that I am positive here given the current SP and potential, but think we are still a long way away from a re-rate.
In finance, the net present value or net present worth applies to a series of cash flows occurring at different times. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow. It also depends on the discount rate. NPV accounts for the time value of money.
GL's calculation of the NPV of Saltfleetby of 4p is, therefore, the value of Saltfleetby's projected cash flows to Angus NOW, TODAY, not in some still-to-be-determined future.
YL,
My point was that he's not a day trader.
GL to you, too.
Ocelot,
The new PI could very well sell into any rise... he's here to make money like the rest of us... Just because you invest in quantity does not mean that your goals change.
I have been invested in many shares over the years where large institutional or large net worth investors caused damage to the SP by selling at a strategically difficult point in time... some of them even loaned out to short!
Good luck with your strategy... let's see how we both fare by the year end.
GL :-)
the only likely buyers are day traders looking to ride a spike...
-----------------------------
But we have a new PI who's taken a stake of over 4%, so he's not a day trader, is he?
Nothing succeeds like success. When this share price starts to rise, it will keep on going, imho.
You are bearish, I am bullish, we are both entitled to our opinions and to express them.
Ocelot,
Of the three companies I mentioned, I think they all have better near term prospects than ANGS. Better to invest there - take profit and re-invest into ANGS early in the New Year - dependent upon progress here IMHO.
In the past - there might have been the danger of missing the boat. Fortunately (for traders) these days "anyone" watching ANGS is rightfully wary of history repeating itself. Therefore any "serious" SP reboot will - not only - take concrete evidence of progress, but also be easier (and safer) to catch and ride on the up-swing.
The problem still remains, that due to their severely damaged reputation, the only likely buyers are day traders looking to ride a spike... so any hike in SP is going to inevitably be short lived because many investors will sell out again as soon as they reach a decent profit margin. "IF" I invest to average down here, I will certainly sell out at the first given opportunity myself. Having tried holding ANGS stock over the longer period I have now learnt my lesson... NEVER EVER AGAIN!
Talk of us hitting even 4p again is most unlikely in my view, unless Saltfleetby is well into production and backed up by independent verification of lifespan.
As a businessman for many years myself I do know that the single most important thing "any" business has going for it is it's REPUTATION! Damage that at your peril!
Business reputation can be lost overnight... but can take years to regain.
The Curse of the Kimmeridge?
Just for clarity, I have just watched the GL interview with LSE (16/5) and it is very clear that the 4p mentioned to be added to the mcap was only once the field is producing at around the mid-range of the expected production levels, not upon completion of the deal itself.
I hadn't seen this interview previously (or the 20/6 Core Finance interview which I have also watched today). Both are interesting and worth a visit if folk have not seen before, or wish to revisit.
I searched 'George Lucan interview' and removed the results generated for George Lucas interview! Some may think the Angus story to date could be a George Lucas production.
gla
Understood, E_AL, best wishes.
Personally, I hope that if you wait for tangible results, the present opportunity will no longer be there!
Ocelot please don’t get me wrong, I’m in no way a deramper, only a LTH who witnessed his investment gone from 10p to 1p ..
You said :
“ And that is where the market opportunity exists today.”
.. it could be an opportunity or a gamble.. Balcombe comes before Saltfleetby so it could go either way depending on the flow test results .
“Imho, the market won't wait until next year to begin to integrate the company's net cash flow forecasts for Saltfleetby.”
I think we’ll see mini pump and dump spikes for traders to take advantage of until Angus delivers ‘something’ for a change.
“ With the share price at 1.15p, GL's Net Present Value of those forecasts of 4-7p beats the return available on cash deposits by a very large margin.”
First of all 7p is unrealistic imo unless we get good results from Balcombe, the company said Saltfleetby will add 4p to the sp once the deal is done ..the deal is done and £2.5M was received from the operator but that didn’t make a change ! GL said I’m fundraising at the rock bottom back in Q2 .. look where we are now !
It’s a gamble atm and I don’t trust BOD anymore ... I prefer to jump on board when the sentiment returns based on tangible results rather than investing now, wait for few months then get screwed again by the company ...
It's very simple:
if you don't believe ANGS can recover any credibility, then you avoid;
if you believe it can recover some credibility, then you buy.
YL,
A 500+% gain on HUR would mean a market cap of nearly £5bn - personally, think the likelihood of such a gain is higher with Angus.
E_AL,
Couldn't agree with you more that credibility has been lost, GL recognises this himself:
"Whether or not we can get confidence and liquidity back into the share is a matter of careful
management and, I hope proven, competence in the future".
The share price wouldn't be where it is if the company's credibility was higher.
And that is where the market opportunity exists today.
Imho, the market won't wait until next year to begin to integrate the company's net cash flow forecasts for Saltfleetby.
With the share price at 1.15p, GL's Net Present Value of those forecasts of 4-7p beats the return available on cash deposits by a very large margin.
“ IPO price 6p, high 35p, so it multiplied by 5.83x to the peak.
5.83x 1.15p = 6.70p. That is achievable and, imho, can be exceeded.”
I disagree with you on this ocelot, how many shares the company had when it first listed on AIM ? What about now ? What value did its Weald sites add to the company other than false promises & substantial dilution to angus’s shares ? Zero value for Brockham, Lidsey income hardly pays Tidswell’s salary , they f^ked up Balcombe’s flow test last year thanks to Tidswell incompetence & the market now is too skeptical about the site’s potential, saltfleetby is not before Q2 2020 IF everything goes by the plan. we must admit that Angus lost its credibility in the market after it repeatedly failed to deliver so I don’t see any reason/catalyst for sp recovery before next year & logically the sp should stay at this level until Angus gets the council’s approval to start the flow test in Balcombe which should attract some attention ... the earliest for this to happen (and with a bit of luck) is around Christmas this year....
Until then we’ll get mini pump and dump spikes like the ones we had over the past couple of weeks
Hurricane, Amerisur & our "other" Weald favourite - to name but three - are all actually producing oil & therefore revenue (so the risk is infinitely smaller IMHO and yet the upside is equally significant if all continues to go to plan).
ANGS price is low for a very good reason and it really has nothing to do with value for money.
It's more attractive than it was, because the starting price is now so low.
There's a market full of other companies out there, but not all of those will necessarily live up to their original promise either and if you're looking for a 500+% gain in the medium term, then they will involve risk, too.