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The loan amount that amigo lend is poultry compared to size that the banks lend out to customers.
Most bank would lend upto £25k in minutes - amigo does not have such loans.
I think amigo is £5k over a period, and the guarantor can also be another person, family/ friend.
A Different model. All the answers will be revealed in q1 results and presentation.
Get your questions ready.
Anyway off to eat fish n chips:)))
PS: During 2008 recession' GDP has dropped by 6% (UK) 5% (US)
Non-SubPrime delequencies on CreditCards were around 6%~7% (US) for non-top Banks
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ueGc
(Subprimes were in double-digits, I hope amgo rejects applications with credit score below 400 though)
GDP in UK has already dropped by Quarter (close to 25%) despite unprecedented stimulus measures (fullough payments, gov-guarantees on loans, tax deferrals, tax-credits, etc) and possibly more to come (due to sharp structural changes in business environment)
That's already 4x / 5x deeper fall than before.
Some direct injection stimulus from HMG are about to expire.
Amgo' provisions for defaults are 15% (£106m), it might hit 20%-22% depending on HMG actions (slightly cutting direct monetary income support) - even though I think we are not accepting applications with credit score below 400 (could be 750-400 range, just my guess)..
Octopus - my major concern isn't about complaints (this part is more or less static, with something similar to binary outcome) but rather towards defaults, as Nayan have mentioned during webcast (and it's outlined in last report) - these provisions were calculated using IFRS(9) methodology which isn't really designed for such unprecedented event (and amgo is sub-prime lender after all, banks seems to be in-line with 1% provisions if compared to 2008 financial crisis - which wasn't that bad btw as current {back then it was 6% GDP drop without much of structural damage and no need to readjust economic efficiencies to a very different levels, now we have GDP drop close to quarter 23%, might add next Q} , our segment is very likely to be hit a bit worse than expected), I do appreciate all support/stimulus measures by our Gov though (that's the only reason why our provision estimate might still be realistic), but IMV - longer term income prospects of our customer base (incl. existing loans) are not that good unfortunately (we're already 20% down for GDP with unemployment running on steroids reaching only ~4% for now, service sector is mostly decimated {which is 70% of our economy} except for probably industrial logistics) - income will fall and amgo has to be very careful because gov has propensity to try all they can in order to ensure these costs are paid by someone else in the end (including pinning many things on commercial sector - even via FCA decisions), amgo means nothing to them - they'll sink it even without thinking twice.
Therefore two major risks here:
> Gov-FCA mechanics to transfer burden on small commercial sector
> Customer' income drop (defaults)
Shezer I believe you are on the right lines. I am also of a similar opinion, let's get on with it. However I think a certain amount of resistance from amigo legal team is important to prevent ballooning costs of claims. I'm confident they have a plan. Let's see what it is. Next week? Hopefully.
I think there should be a cost say £100 to make a claim. That is full refunded if the claim is successful. But that would put off the no win no fee brigade.
Morning Franky - I agree - best form of defence is attack!!!! It needs to be put out there that lying to obtain money is fraud and all claims against Amigo will be thoroughly investigated and prosecutions will be 100% persued against any fraudulent claims!!!!!!!!
Because you have weasle claims comps advertising everywhere encouraging past policy holders to put a claim in with no win no fee arrangements. Think how PPI built. Amigo should use a proxy to run a counter campaign ! lying to borrow is criminal. The danger is that this opens up the door to never ending claims. I have zero idea on that like anyone. If they can report lower new cases we ll fly but if there is an increase we ll need a very skilled and determined board to escape.
You know me Hereshopin. Do my best to be charitable and give the benefit of the doubt.
Plus, Amigo is still lending to key workers. A lot of misinformation is being bandied about.
Ive tried signing up to a few for free trials for here and other stocks but they all seem to have monthly fees and the trials actually give no information, ill sound like an amigo customer here but surly this information should be available for free to help investors make a more informed decision :)
Wisealpha gives bond prices I think
what are the bonds currently trading at?
where can you get a live quote?
Yuri I’ve read every article there is on amigo that was back in June !!! That’s what prompted the original decline in the SP. to post it in that way infers it’s recent ..... your better than that.
Anyways - as was already suggested previously and after last webcast on results ( https://www.amigoplc.com/investors/results-centre ) there's a slight chance that we might revisit something close to 7p space after (or right before) this event in 2 weeks (Fri-29th-Aug): https://www.amigoplc.com/investors/conference-call-details
because clearly we won't see any bounce-back in lending and there will be further losses in Q2 (ending June-2020) with provisions. We're in a middle of Q3 and amgo hasn't restarted lending yet.
That’s a very old article yuri
It might have something to do with this:
"...But now the value of its own debt has crashed to levels suggesting its bondholders are braced for heavy losses and a total >>WIPEOUT<< of shareholders..."
https://www.ft.com/content/712e9cbe-7d0c-4f9c-9a26-fed3adedd102
Thanks, maybe I am being impatient. I was just hoping to be sitting on 1-2p price increase profit.
*double my holding value
Honestly I do! Hand on heart I will be surprised if in the short term 3-4 weeks I don’t double my holding at least!
That’s not advice by the way everyone has to make their own minds up I know the old dyor phrase is over used on these forums but this is one it really applies to!
I see a flurry of good need in the short term however the long term picture with the fca im less certain of! They do often act like a law unto themselves but I reckon I will keep a very small holding in here regardless 10k shares just in case ......
Honestly do you think there will be good news?
p.s. I am invested and not a ramper/deramper
Fat bloke. You always get a sell off Friday afternoon regardless! a lot of people don’t like holding over the weekend especially spreadbet cfds etc Others like to lock in profits. That’s why I think they haven’t put rns out yet. Monday mornings you get a better than normal reaction to good news and a worse than usual reaction to bad news ( alway good for the sp to put good news out on a Monday )
Sellers were more active than buyers in ask/bid/volume space, hence the drop.
There was also expectation for RNS on sorting funding issues, didn't go through for some reasons.
Corporate debt is very expensive these days unless you're in BoE list for support.
Morning all.
Why the drop yesterday? I know the FTSE was down. At the end of Thursday I was just in the Blue. Maybe with hindsight I bought at the wrong time.
I wish I had confidence to buy at the lows and sell at the highs. I think FOMO stops me.