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I’ve been in Amigo since last Summer but have stayed out of discussions since the shenanigans of 2020 and focused on other shares. I have a nominal investment and I believe it’s worth the risk - I can’t see the vote going against acceptance of the proposal frankly. Of course the risk is there but in this day and age there is no such thing as a dead very!
I agree with the mindset. I m thinking 'what ifs' if the vote goes the wrong way, i imagine it ll be impossible to sell above 10p. SP would crash to 70-80% on the day to 8-9p. Unlikely. Court don t sanction what the customers want..near on impossible but same as above.in that scenario. FCA being so penal that we can t do business still. If so we d see a 30-40% down day whilst removing the roadblock. I d say all in all, we ve gone from a 60-40% survival chance in Jan to about 90-10%.
Rest assured mark, any fine will be proportional and balanced. Number one FCA concern right now is balancing consumer protection with the needs of the economy. As per Risk Director of major credit referencing agency telling me. They are acutely aware that they need to get the balance righrt, so mega fines won t be landing. As i ve said the likeliest action will be a capital buffer we are asked to accrue should we fall foul of the rules in the future. FCA will ensure we have a pot available. This may be another 10% of profit put aside. Even with 25% tied up this is still a major opportunity for amigo 2.0 to shaft ooops i mean serve customers.-)
Jjabraham whenever the news is announced the market will react pretty instantly. I reckon intraday rns on the 12 th is possible but more likely a 7am rns on the 13th the court hearing in the 19th will be the official sign off, so anyone planning to sell the news ( I’m not btw ) that will be the window for selling and buying back. In my opinion a wee bit to risky of being locked out. 13th rns followed by court hearing 19th will be swiftly followed by the lifting or adjustment of vreq and announcement of plans to return to lending that will be also followed by the renegotiated banking arrangement with RBC or someone else. We’ve then got the rollout of Amgo 2.0 that will follow it will be a very news heavy month and Amigo shares do like an auction when the volumes are high. The only fly in the ointment if the vote does go the way we hope is the FCA fine. My thought on that is they may hit Amigo very hard on that score in order to press home the point that they didn’t let them off easy … but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.
MTFB, SXX, FRR... There have been some shockers in my portfolio! I still check in on the MTFB chat, waiting on the RTO, but I don't contribute... nothing to say, really! Same with FRR, albeit that chat can still be interesting to read with all the court shenanigans! AMGO is a shining light! And who'd have said that 6 months ago?!
Jjabraham. Agree about the gap up and resistance if all goes to plan a 7am rns that day will cause huge gap up anyone trying to buy then … good luck with that! Anyone who’s been here the last year know I love to trade in and out and take profits but I know full well you won’t get back in if your out so I’m gonna be sitting on my hands the next week
Chippyg. No probs I’m very aware of you guys that got caught out buying in after that initial drop only to be followed up by THAT secondary blow! I’ve had a couple of guys message me on Twitter who are in the same boat as you. Fingers crossed for us all I also know there are a couple who read this board who actually bought in at ipo and are still holding.
ISA. Re Mtfb. I feel your pain believe me !!!!! That feeling of several thousand all of a sudden worth a few hundred is gut wrenching but hopefully we will hear some positive news a bit like you I’ve learnt some hard ( never take anything for granted ) lessons.
Debenhams ( don’t get me started ) MTFB ( Just didn’t see it coming ) G3e ( i can’t bring myself to talk about it )
So as you I’m instantly looking at how I could be about to get screwed over and treat something that looks nailed on with even more scrutiny.
I agree I think it will gap up big time and sustain good daily increases for a few days until a profit taking dip happens then we are in no major risks left territory and able to start growing with less volatility and a cracking long term hold.
The old sell the news tactic works say on drillers that after hitting then have months of not much happening to the next event and almost certain dilution in order to move on.
But we have a good news flow, vote pass, relend/ new products rns quickly following and who knows what else.
Only my view ofcourse but I'm holding through the next 10 days and then beyond that for a minimum 18 months to see how the company grows up and really establishes itself as a beast in this sector.
Perfect storm of fresh management, fresh products, massive post covid demand and competition suffering and potentially not getting themselves going again like us.
Not a chance this will drop on good news it will gap up to 60p / 72p resistance range. It isn’t a case of good news it’s company resurrection news atrades. Anyone doing what you suggest is simply a short term trader but many of these guys are here long haul and banked their capital ages ago.
Who’s letting it ride ? I think the sensible withdraw Tuesday , pile in a positive vote / court appearance. I think we will touch 30 mon but then capital will be protected . I look back at expected results on many companies I’ve invested in and all fell short and we see a drop. Even good results the sp has dropped. Kicked myself for not getting out before. Might have to listen this time. What do we think the mark up will be re a positive vote ? Still got the court hearing to get through too. For LTH it’s worth staying in Ofcourse however those recently buying in will prob take profits. We all love a gamble but majority of times it never plays out how you expect or the market tries it on. What’s everyone’s thoughts ?