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Well, it should have read "good" - not to make your head too big. :-)
Nevertheless, I fully share your thought.
etank
Really god post TDT - I second that.
etank
Amur-isagogo
"..more likely to get people to run a mile."
We probably should have.....years ago.
I am holding here, whilst may be not as far down as some others, still down enough to have this written off.
It might just come good one day....it really should.
However, with the current management I can not really see this -more than happy to be proven wrong.
etank
If RL never uttered another observation would it impact the end result?
Amur_isagogo
Anybody who has actually been here for 12 years will know my view which has been consistent. Improved grades and an improved nickel price have always been the issues for me. Well grades aren't going to improve much on what we currently have so itâs all now down to the price of nickel and in my opinion that still has some way to go before Amur will be able to go it alone. But letâs face it Amur will never develop this mine themselves. The options are a JV or an outright sale. The JV option is unlikely in my opinion so itâs down to an outright sale. How do you get a decent price out of a potential buyer? You have to have an alternative, either another buyer or the option to go it alone. Itâs a bit like Game Theory you have to be able to execute the bluff if your bluff is called.
Don't forget, the commodity sector is cyclical. When you invested 12 years ago (2009) the price of nickel was on a roller coaster ride. In that time it peaked at $28,000/tonne and then cratered at below $8,000/tonne. Has Amur been viable during that whole cycle? No. Did you sell at any point in that cycle? It seems not. You've held for better days. I held assuming that further drilling would produce the grades that would make Amur viable. Grades have improved but not to the extent hoped for. Itâs now all down to the price of nickel. I'm still here because I believe that nickel will eventually hit a level that will make the "go it alone" option possible. That's the point when it might be possible to squeeze a reasonable price from a potential buyer.
You say "We have all made the gamble..." then go onto to state
".....what I donât get is someone constantly posting ambiguous, detailed and awkward to follow fluff under a pretence that he is waiting for the right signals....."
That in many respect sums up the difference. You are gambling on something you don't fully understand. RL, on the other hand, isn't.
You just need to accept that some people have a much better understanding than you, are happy to post detailed research and are generous enough to freely give their time and research. Just because you wouldnât give as freely says more about you than it does anything else. You canât understand RLâs motivation because you donât have the same generosity of spirit. Youâre just two different types of people
Wanting a happy clappy board where only positives are allowed would devalue this forum to the extent that it would render it useless. I think RLâs contribution is invaluable and I donât, as youâve decided, think it negative. On the contrary it helps me to determine whether the rewards associated with investing more here are outweighed by the risks.
TDT
I spent a couple of hours having a look at RL's figures yesterday. I have my own figures so have an understanding of where RL is coming from.
The positive to take is that in year two, AFTER BANK STRESS TESTING , we are slightly cash negative. The Bank stress test RL has used was 30% from revenue. Not unreasonable. The other costs he has used are in the PFS or he has explained where he has obtained them from. Ie Processing cost has risen from $10 to $15. In terms of revenue he has used what he believes is the relevant cog. RL's figures are fairly clear you just need to spend time going through them. I am sure he would gladly explain any issues.
RL raised the issue of a second UG mine. Capex was say $328m. The issue I would have is that this would be after year 5 when the various taxes begin to kick in.
Amur_isagogo
"I have no interest in trying to address the issues that RL is raising....."
Fair enough. Itâs difficult for some people to take in the detail and to assimilate what is, after all, a very complex and nuanced process. Seemingly minor issues can determine the difference between a project being viable or not. Itâs that sort of detail that most people PIs fail to identify so when you have somebody that can it can be rather disconcerting.
The devil is in the detail. Ignore at your peril.
TDT
It's called dyslexia small mind
"tell me I am wrong" you're wrong, to put a post out without proof reading it and correcting your errors.
Amur_isaagogo
I don't really see where your seeing all this negatively from Red, personaly it's all in your mind
Read his reserch with a fair and open mind
Then try and see from Reds possible investment strategy, I think you will find he likes to be very sure and is probably very happy to pay at a perceived premium when he does invest, he's definitely been in hear before, and he was quite obviously smart and wise to off got out for abit tell me I am wrong
Oh and,
"Is it because youâre paid to talk this share price down?"
I really don't think Young needs any assistance in this department, he's doing a sterling job of it, all on his own.
Blue,
Please indulge me, I'm just being a bit pedantic here. Also, for the record I'm not defending anyone.
But you say,
"Is it because youâre paid to talk this share price down?"
Now, if you are as savvy as you think you may be, then you would know that nobody would admit to what you ask, even if true, but it's not really a question, is it ?
It's an accusation and to be fair, you have zero evidence to support your accusation, so in the interests of fairness and balance, you should retract your remark in order to receive a reply, though not sure you'll get one.
False accusations don't go down well here.
Just out of interest, how long have you held AMC shares continuously, if you do ?
Address the issues raised. If it is so obviously garbage, as you claim, you should be able put forward a counter argument instead of your usual bile and invective.
Attack the ball not the man, unless of course, you canât.
TDT
Amur/Blue
The two of you would do well to remember the following.
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.
TDT
Well said Primus. In fact RL has mentioned from time to time that he has held varying numbers of shares in AMC ,although I don't think they usually amount to a large percentage of his portfolio
Blue, if you think that RL discussing facts about the project is talking the price down then perhaps youâre in the wrong share? Similarly, if you think that anyone would pay RL enough per post to make that his sole reason for posting, youâre deluded. Maybe RL is trying to work out whether or not there is a good case to invest in AMC, finds some value in discussing his thoughts on a public forum, and is kind enough to share what appears to be incredible knowledge of mining operations with know-nothings like me? There are a number of people Iâve filtered on this board, and itâs the ones that are baselessly ramping the price that I block as I can very well make up stupid MCaps on my own without some other idiot doing it for me. What I canât do is have significant mining knowledge and apply that dispassionately to a project, so Iâm glad there is someone here that does, so maybe you could lay off the baseless accusations of RL being paid to be here? If he gets fed up and goes, then the board will be far the worse for it.
Blue. If there were to be a vote as to whether you or RL must cease posting , you would not stand a chance. This is a forum for intelligent debate and RL has been a valuable contributor for many years.
SP was surprisingly resilient yesterday. Bodes well for the coming week?
RL
You have stated more than once you ainât even invested here.. Why are you even here? Seems a bit odd?
Is it because youâre paid to talk this share price down?
Are people really thinking that mine dump trucks will be used on a 300km road to the rail head?
MD
RL
Komatsu and Leihberr, I believe, do large 45 tonne EV dump trucks. By the time this project advances to the execution phase the dump trucks will be larger with longer range.
KM being stuck out in the middle of nowhere provides plenty of space for turbines and solar panels. A large battery would solve the problem of having enough power for those occasions when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine and a stand-by emergency generator or two to fill the gaps when both underperform.
That would all come at a cost but the supply of appropriately mined raw materials to comply with stringent OEM requirements would come at a premium. It might not be possible to do everything in an environmentally benign way but there are options out there to reduce the carbon footprint.
I suspect it will be an awful lot easier to construct an environmentally responsible mining operation on a greenfield site than it will be to retrofit a brownfield operation.
KM is ripe for a car or battery OEM to come in and develop it. Itâs just a pity itâs in Russia.
TDT
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3977365/PRICING-NOTICE-Proposal-to-launch-reference-prices-for-nickel-sulfate-market.html
Interesting article that proposes to run 2 separate nickel markets... A price for class one battery grade nickel, and a price for class 2 stainless steel.
As seen in an earlier post by TDT, the nickel market fell on the so called use of class 2 nickel in batteries! Well we all know what happens when itâs made in China! Lol....
Thereâs talk that âclass 2â will do, and we are seeing many companies, such as Decar jumping on the EV bandwagon, but will it? It is highly polluting and expensive and certainly does not fit in with the âgreenâ revolution.