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No, not LOL.
Please stop, you are embarrassing yourself.
New potential investors may visit here, you are painting a very bad picture.
Hey Cueball maybe you should be on the board of directors you clown you could always hire a digger and give a helping dig might help with the extraction or maybe your mouth would have remove a lot of ore hopefully high grade ? LOL .
Grade is as important as tonnage for gold production.
The gradual drop in grade over the last few years has been a disappointment...hopefully they can reverse this trend with the new equipment & targeted mining.
I think that it should be clarified that it does not take a lot of investment from here to go above 45k oz. What it takes is an improving grade and to fill the plant. The equipment has been purchased to address both of these elements and the plan is to gradually move to higher grade ore.
Consider that reserves are over 3g/t. At 3g/t filling the plant equates to annual production of 68k oz.
Moving to 1m tonnes processing plant is not scheduled to take a lot of investment and this level together with the reserve grade of 3.61g/t equates to annual production of over 96k oz.
It is the move to 2m tonnes processing capability that will require more significant investment.
A focus on grade will make a huge impact on the production profile.
The aim should be to get to 850,000 tonnes ASAP....this equates to approx. 45,000 Oz (my guesstimate!!).
Anything above that requires significant investment. But 45,000 Oz would be a good foundation & give them options. May also make the current Market Cap seem cheap.
3 years to get to 70,000 tonnes/month of ore doesn't sound that difficult...but what do I know, next to sweet FA.
"9 years to reach 100,000 Oz seems an awfully long time."
As I say it depends how you read the plan (its in the annual report) - the next 3 years is about the 850000tonnes per year, then it says they invest in capex ramping up to 2,000,000tonnes in the next 6 years. Which could mean in 3 years time they move do 2million for 6 years, or it could mean in 3 years time they start ramping up to 2million which takes 6 years - reality is its probably somewhere in between.
9 years to reach 100,000 Oz seems an awfully long time.
As an example, in the past they had a plan (Fantasy) to go from 3,200 Oz/month (42,000 tonnes) in March 2017 to 8,300 Oz/month by Dec 2018. Obviously a fantasy but it may suggest a similar timescale to the new plan...albeit they are limited to an ore processing capacity of 850,000 tonnes per year (without expensive modifications).
I also suspect the previous plans were based on much higher grades...I wonder where all the gold has gone?!
Daisan - fair enough, theoretically with Teren-Sai they could support the productions levels you are talking about, but currently its way beyond anything the company themselves are talking about. The current target at the moment is 100,000oz per year and that is requiring several hundred million dollars of CAPEX and depend who you read their plans and interpret ramping up, it could be up to 9 years away.
Short term the mine has been starved of investment and the company has continued to suffer through poor operational performance, however the money is now there for the first phase of ramping up, so hopefully execution can be successful and a partner with deep pockets brought in to accelerate development.
Daisan, agreed. All the future plans depend to some extent on how they perform in the immediate future....can they be relied upon to deliver on their promises?!
They would never be expected to self fund the entire '200,000 Oz' plan...but the longer they can self fund development the better IMO. Also having a bit of a cash reserve for emergency expenditure would 'probably' be wise. It is good to have money to throw at a problem...especially when any delay costs lots of lost revenue.
I must be going slightly senile....in the past I remember forecast grades of +3 g/tonne but now they are targetting +2 g/tonne. Ho hum!! That would have turned 60,000 Oz to 40,000 Oz in one stroke of a pen.
Hopefully +2 g/t is achievable!!
I would add that it feels strange for me to be considered a cheer leader. My nickname was 'eeyore' because I was almost the gloomy, cautious one about everything!
I don't think that they will be able to self fund the move to 2m tonnes at the processing plant. Nor would it be desirable. If this gold bull market has legs (and I believe it does) then they should be pushing to maximize the opportunity and expand more quickly. If the gold price pans out the way I expect it to over the medium to long term (I believe in the short term there may well be challenges) then funding is unlikely to be an issue.
But they first need to show that they can fill the current plant effectively.
Spike, you are the voice of reason. The more people talk about 'big numbers' the more I begin to think it must be possible or they wouldn't be talking about it. But you have brought us back to reality.
I suspect some people are getrting a bit carried away by the proce of gold. But if the gold stuff remains mostly in the ground at Altyn then it 'possibly' has less of an impact on them. Spot price of gold goes up & down....god only knows what it will be in 2-3 years.If they can guarantee it will be $10,000 per oz then that would be 'nice'.
As pointed out...Altyn plans to make steady progress with what they have at the moment...but to become a 'big player' (whatever that is) then serious money will have to be invested a few years down the line. Hopefully they have stored up enough cash in the meantime to achieve that....if they cannot make money at $2000 per oz then they need to pack up & do something else.
Your post actually agrees with what I stated as the long term objective plus a bit for Teren-Sai. 2m tonnes at the reserve grade should get production up to these levels.
I am not saying that this is coming any time soon (the latest $10000/oz target I have seen is talking about over the next 10 years). But that is their stated plan.
Do I think that they are going to do it? Well, like you I would like to see them produce at a rate of 25-30k oz first as well as improving grades and filling the plant. Until then the jury is out.
Figures being thrown about here are getting rather crazy. The initial plan is to get monthly mining production to a stable 40-45,000t per month, this has been slightly exceeded in Q2, but the key goal is to maintain this through deeper operations at higher grades. If they can mine 500,000t over the next 12 months AND successfully process it, at grades somewhere between 2-2.5g per ton that would be a big achievement and would result in 30,000oz in sales.
$36.6million is budget as CAPEX over the next 3 years to get Sekisovskoye production to 850,000t per annum, which is the name plate capacity of the processing plant and should get annual gold sales to somewhere around 45,000oz per year, possibly by mid next year quarterly sales could be 10,000oz plus per year.
Beyond that to get to 100,000oz per year requires an additional $55million CAPEX to expand the existing processing plant to 1million ton per annum and to build another 1million ton per annum plant as well as an additional $300million capex for underground mining and expanded fleet of equipment and is still a number of years out.
Talk of 60,000oz in the next 12 months is fanciful and 200-300k oz goes way beyond what the company is promising over a multi year development horizon.
I'm seriously bullish on this, hopefully next quarter can see 5000oz of gold extracted and moving beyond there - beyond that it would be good to get a large partner on board to accelerate the plans by providing the high levels of capex needed.
With no further gold price improvements ALTN has the resources available to easily sustain 200-300k oz production per year and achieve a market capitalisation $500m+. To be honest, with Teren-Sai there is the potential to double that but, say, 250k oz should be possible. But it will require investment beyond internal cash generation. With gold market strength they should be able to fund that with mainly debt so I am expecting little dilution from here.
However, ultimately the valuation depends on your view of what happens to the gold price in the future. If you believe that it is headed for $10,000/oz as a number of commentators are saying (and they are not all nut jobs either) then achieving 250k oz production will result in a much higher valuation.
In the meantime we may well have to contend with a period of gold weakness.
5 p after next set of results and double figures in 12-18 months, Buster, is how I see this panning out. This is subject to ALTN delivering 60,000 oz / $45-48million operating profit in the next 12 months. If this happens - and the last RNS indicated that this is what could be on the cards - then this really is starting to look very under valued indeed. If you also check the size of the buys there are some quite nice chunky ones going through. The sells appear to be a lot smaller. Good luck, Brighty
Hi, Brighty when do we hit 15p ? I reckon price will go up now until we get a update ?? should see gradual rise .
Hi Retired Banker, hence my 16p target that I have been posting about here. Certainly possible if ALTN can deliver 60,000 oz - we could be looking at a whopping $45-48million operating profit in the next 12 months. This is really starting to look very under valued indeed. Good luck, Brighty
Brighty - whilst I'd love to see ALTN do like AAZ I can't see it happening.
I cottoned on to AAZ in Mid 2018 @ 42p ... but back in Jan '16 when it was still trading at 5p it had a market cap of 5.7mm ; debt of 50mm and AISC about equal to the spot price of gold. Such that it was actually mining 60-70k oz and making a loss.
ALTN is already valued at 65mm and is only producing a little over a quarter of that gold.
A credible 3-5yr production forecast is the only thing that will make ALTN rise significantly imo
If you consider ALTN at 0.5p as analogous to AAZ @ 5p and if we can get to 60-70k oz then maybe we'll get to 10-15p price range
AAZ went from 5p in 2016 to 173p in 2019. The message is clear. Hold for 'gold', literally with ALTN.
AAZ 5p in 2016
AAZ 30p in 2017
AAZ 90p in 2018
AAZ 173p in 2019
AAZ 150p today
If you hold ALTN for 2-3 years and the AAZ experience is repeated here the gains will be huge for ALTN share holders.
The next set of ALTN figures will be big numbers in my opinion, which will see the share price increase significantly. Good luck, Brighty