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Don't mention that share! Never invest in oilies ever again
If I say "Range Resources" does that explain my caution? :) The two companies are nothing like each other but that experience scarred me.
I see no reason why the sp shouldn't hit 10p this year even with a 37% dilution and, as for next year, it could reach 30p. If there are 350 million shares by then (+75 million each year) that gives a Market cap. of the £100 million that Danny Swick spoke of as his target and we might expect a buy out' - maybe you should have lead with that....LOL
@John112334
Not at all, I am a massive fan of the business model and think that this Company could do extremely well over the next few years. BUT I was only talking about the P&L account for 2020.
If my cost estimates are broadly correct (and I freely admit that I have had to guess just about everything) and the fees are split with SLIM then ALGW are unlikely to be at break-even until the AUM is at about £500 million and the performance of BOAGF gets to about 10%. Mr Gobind Sahney gave ball park figures for AUM as $100 million (£77 million) this year and $250 million (£190 million) in 2021. Let's hope he was being cautious and we do much better than that but even then the AUM is unlikely to reach £500 million ($650 million) before 2022.
Of course the actual present day profitability of the company only has a small bearing on it's share price as that is all about perceived future performance.
IMO the future actual profitability of ALGW , and by that I mean 2023 and on, is fantastic. The fees earned on the first £500 million of AUM should pay all the costs but after that it's all JAM :)
Using my figures (and again I must point out that these are all guesses) when ALGW has £1 billion of AUM, which is perfectly achievable by 2024, the fee income should be in excess of £15 million and the Gross Profit nearly £9 million.
Someone said a few days back that it's possible that SLIM will not be a part of this soon. If this is the case and ALGW get the whole fee then break-even comes in early 2022 and fee income of £15 million in 2023 or earlier if acquiring AUM goes faster than the $100 million this year and $250 million next.
I see no reason why the sp shouldn't hit 10p this year even with a 37% dilution and, as for next year, it could reach 30p. If there are 350 million shares by then (+75 million each year) that gives a Market cap. of the £100 million that Danny Swick spoke of as his target and we might expect a buy out.
N.B. This is all pure speculation and I am certainly not recommending that anyone risks any money on my say so.
Rest assured that anyone invested in alpha now will be very happy down the road. Lot of background noise at moment.
gilesfitzh - Your model indicated that there would basically be nothing here to drive the price. If that's the case, what are we all doing here?
@John112334
I hope you are right but until the revolving facility is signed off we won't know the costs. Is 3% pessimistic? I don't know what commercial loans cost these days but BoE is still at 0.75%, is it likely that ALGW can borrow for less than 3%?
Acquiring whole life policies. I'm quite sure that Danny Swick can't contact individual whole life policy holders directly which means there will be commission to pay to whomever puts ALGW and the policy holder in touch, let's hope that ALGW pay less than 0.5%. Bear in mind that this commission should be a 'one off' and ALGW will get it's management fee on this AUM every year.
Do you think Overheads and Director fees/bonuses will be less than £0.75 million? Let's hope so :)
gilesfitzh - Have to say that is massively pessimitic.
Thanks for you insight Giles, very helpful.
More @mrcarrick :)
1. Dilution. If they issue all 75 million shares your current holding will be diluted by 37%. (201.635 million + 75 million / 201.635 million). Bear in mind that at today's sp (say 2.5p) they could raise £1.875 million. They don't HAVE to issue all 75 million but if the need arises they will have the option.
2. They will need 2 million shares for Colva. Additionally ALGW is not making a profit or indeed any real money at all at the moment and there will be commissions, costs, Director's fees/bonuses and overheads to pay over the next year.
The revolving facility could cost £1.75 million if it's used for half the year at 3% and left idle for half the year at 0.5% (these are pure guesses). If 0.5% commission is paid to acquire AUM and ALGW acquire £100 million of AUM that will cost £0.5 million. Overheads/Directors maybe £0.75 million. That lot comes to £3 million and the income from fees on £100 million AUM is only £0.75 million (at the moment we have to assume that the management fee is shared with SLIM and there won't be a performance bonus) so hopefully my estimated figures are pessimistic and the costs are not as high and that more AUM is delivered.
@mrcarrick
If you are a shareholder you are entitled to attend the AGM.
However like most, if not all, of us your shares are probably held in your broker's nominee account and therefore your name does not appear on the Company's shareholders register. BUT you can contact your broker and ask them (I am pretty sure they are not allowed to refuse) to make arrangements for the necessary documentation so that you can attend and vote. They will very probably charge you, my broker has told me they charge £30. Of course getting there might pose a problem as the AGM starts at 8am at Canary Wharf in London and if you live in Scotland that's quite a trip for an AGM.
I’m sure they write things like this on purpose. I for one am confused. All I want to know is
1. How much dilution should I prepare for
2. Where are these funds going they intend to raise.
Simple question difficult answer. Wish I got an invite to the AGM.
@HullFC$ever.
Re: 2. Point 7.
The £75000 can be misleading as it does not clearly state, in plain English, that they mean 75 million shares. £75000 worth of "ordinary shares of £0.001p each in the Company".
Can someone with "good comms" with the company ask for a clearer clarification on these points? Cheers
1. Point 7 is a different context to point 8
Both points are about exercising the right should they need to use it
2. Point 7 talks about a nominal amount upto £75,000 with no mention of a share price
3 Point 8, mentions a specific price for the Share but they cannot re-purchase more than 10% of the company ... approx 20m shares
If I am right point 7 will be used to pay off Colva and point 8 is a pretty standard option for the use of possible excess funds
Thats the way I see it ..... agree of disagree?