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Something is bubbling behind the scenes.
I am feeling very positive about this at the moment. Just a gut feel but supported by the fact that the speed in which they raised the £31.6m capital and the amount. There is definitely NOT nothing going on.
Perhaps we will get something positive this week once the EGM has been completed.
Some good posts here over the weekend.
Nice blue start to the week too.
A while before additional funds available and starting to get FOMO
gla
I want, we should not look past the fact that this is an AIM company. Much of the valuation is based upon IP and potential, of which AFC have lots of both. To be positive, I would say that none of the potential is priced in.
Revenue is the next step for AFC as they commercialise the business with the Hydro x Cell (L) systems. Revenue is what is received by CWR and ITM and therefore they have potential priced in. I would not say that either of their valuations is based upon P/Es which are multiples of net profit as neither seem to have generated this yet.
Taking a look at CWR, much of their revenue is generated from licencing but they have very high operating costs covering R&D. I feel that AFC have done a superb job in keeping operating expenditure down and have been strategic in ensuring that partnerships such as that with De Nora have been worth while.
Because of these low operating costs at AFC there is a very good chance that AFC could become cash positive before someone like CWR and possibly ITM (have not really looked in much detail)
Alkamem could be sold or licenced. As they accelerate the development there is a fair chance that trials have been successful. So now, to produce in the size and scale required will take a little more development, but it feels close.
All this is adding fuel to the potential fire, whilst raising the value of the IP. They have done their R&D and have a commercial product, with some development remaining for the solid system which has been included in the £31.6m raise.
If AFC could be a little more open regarding pipeline or projections is would certainly help raise the 'potential' further. We may not see strong revenue until next year but it certainly won't be the only driver in raising the SP over the next 6 months.
Athansius, but the Acciona trial is solely to give Acciona confidence in how the system works. AFC already know this, so it’s not a “trial” in that sense. And of course other construction companies equally may want to do field trials, possibly on a quicker timescale than Acciona. I suspect you’re right that diesel gender replacement revenues will only happen next year but we might be pleasantly surprised.
Daz, I've been here a little longer than you and many others have been here way longer. Your posting history clearly states that you do lack patience.
Newboy. Thats correct. Only £10m approximately was available to us PIs the remainder was done via a book build.
That shows that this was a done deal in the background.
Southernhay. I was just thinking the same thing.
Someone got out the wrong side of bed or had one of those dreams that puts you in a bad mood for the day.
Were all frustrated at the silence and lack of news.
Yes, a partner that can move the business forward would be great as per CWR with Bosch and ITM with Linde. However, AFC have a partner in De Nora who are partnered with ThyssenKrupp. They may or may not take a stake in the business but they are a partner who will benefit from the success of AFC.
Strategic partnerships do not have to involve taking a stake in the business they can be contractual in other ways. What AB is suggesting is that having the capital will support them in partnerships in the future. This way AFC can have many.
Please don’t tell me I lack patience, when I invested 6 years ago AFC were on the cusp, if I had been told then that actually your investment will be worth 60% less in 6 years time do you really think I would have invested ? I’ve done well trading it during this time and you still get critiqued for doing that ! Being told you’re not it a genuine investor
He won't because in the back of his mind he thinks afc will come good but, he lacks patience and understanding.
How does a company raise £30 million if the product doesn't have massive potential, they just wouldn't be able to do it?
Daz. You’re unbelievably negative. Why don’t you just sell out.
Well into the 2nd half of the year and still nothing has been produced by all of ABs rhetoric.
How many companies on the cusp with the holy grail transformational product line up give away shares at a 25% discount ? You just wouldn’t do it.
I think the fact that AB said this -
We also expect the raise to support our credentials in future industrial and strategic partnering which could provide the basis for a transformational underpinning of the business today and into the future."
Then it’s highly unlikely there is a strategic investment in this round, in the ‘future’ is more likely.
I don’t think a strategic investor would have needed a 25% discount, this suggests there are still no orders due to be announced any time soon.
Indeed. He has got to start backing up his statements now and, with £31.6 million in the bank, with possibly more on the way, he's never had a better opportunity.
Have a look at his LinkedIn page and who responds to his posts.
It's hard to try and forget the past when kore failed and he had to go down a different route but, try we have to.
The wait will soon be over. There will have to be TR1 soon enough, assuming there is one investor with a stake greater than 3%.
At the time of the placing that would be an investment of circa £3m. Peanuts to a bigger strategic partner.
I am not sure what part of the fundraise a potential investor would have been buying in. Tax free shares? Conditional shares? Taxable shares?
Maybe someone can clarify. We are not yet over the line with the circa 100m conditional shares. This is resolution 1 to be passed at the EGM.
Maybe this would be accompanied by an announcement. 100m shares is what 15% of the enlarged share capital.
Would be a significant interest.
I am convinced the EV charger would be an ideal solution for a large delivery company such as Royal Mail, DPD or UPS. All seem to be switching fleets to EV. Where depots are sometimes in areas that the supply may need costly upgrades to support rapid charging.
I am not sure that customers will wait for the Acciona trial. If they like it customers may trial their own.
We are only making assumption. But looking on the positive can only help with overall moral and sentiment. It hasn't done CWR and ITM any harm !
The word "today" in there does make one wonder Cheekboy. Here's hoping!
" I still feel that a large company taking a stake in afc would be best ...look what Bosch did Ceres "
Well, in Adam Bond 's last statement to shareholders via RNS, he said ...,
We also expect the raise to support our credentials in future industrial and strategic partnering which could provide the basis for a transformational underpinning of the business today and into the future."
Make of that what you will but, it sounds as though it maybe the case.
I would like to agree with you Bananaman but I am less certain.
When you say you are expecting order, do you mean for construction use or EV.
If construction I just don't see any orders before the Acciona trial. The very need to have a trial tells us that the expected benefits in that environment still need to be confirmed. Why would anyone order therefore given that the results will be known in Q1 2021? They won't. However, presuming the trial confirms the validity I think orders could come thick and fast after that.
EV is a different matter. They told us at the time of the fun raise that some of the funds would be used to build the 160Kw demo unit as they feel they would find it easier to sell if there was a unit people could see. Translation: We have been unable to sell any despite the roadshow and despite the hundreds of conversations we have had with high end clients. Personally I'm not sure how much having a unit will change that. The figures are the figures, the thing sits in a container, and people know that already. I may be wrong, but the more I think about it the more I think EV is a short term fillip.
I am also a little concerned about the hydrogen economy. It is great to see it being pushed hard, but that means that every Tom, Dick and Harry wants to get into the fuel cell game, including the multinationals, and the oil companies who need an alternative energy agenda. That risks making AFC small and peripheral. We have to push home our USP and our early adopter advantage right now. I still feel that a large company taking a stake in AFC would be best....look what Bosch did for Ceres, and I will be interested to see the holding notices as they are RNS'd. But a formal partnership with Shell, BP, SSE, Hyundai, etc etc would be utterly transformational.
Hope I'm wrong about the EV and the orders start coming in soon, but I fear AFC has already given us the answer.
The EGM will be accompanied by a statement or trading update ?
AFC already told us of the operational loss for the period which was to be expected and obvious really.
It is promising that following this silence and on acceptance of resolution 1, AFC will be fully funded with the full £31.6m. This alone should support customer confidence and hopefully, fingers crossed start the ball rolling with first adopters of the tech.
In general, manufacturers are finding that materials and supplies are becoming easier to get. A few months ago it was very difficult due to COVID.
I am not sure of how long it would take to assemble a 160kw system but when using of the shelf items with everything in stock, for a trained engineer i can't imagine it would take that long to load out a container, connect it up, test and certify the equipment.
Providing there are no supply chain issues, and given the relaxation in COVID lockdown, most if not all countries and manufacturers are more or less working as normal. If AFC receive orders now, supplies are delivered to Dunsfold withi the next few months (end of September for arguments sake), the first orders could be delivered by year end along with the Acciona system.
So can we expect more deliveries with the first 160kw deployment to Acciona ? I would think so !
Does that mean that orders must be imminent ? I would also think so.
Does that mean that following the EGM we will have newsflow ? Notes, I would think so.
Frustrating it may be ( to some) but, I'm enjoying seeing the company grow from the day I first invested. It's totally different.
Lots of positive things on social media from De Nora and others regarding AFC.
Lots to look forward to over the next twelve months.
The boundaries between events that are and are not reportable are inevitably somewhat grey. AFC has had many MOUs in the past and not one has yielded anything. I agree with Muscorum that we want only to be given news that has substance, although that might include current MOUs presuming the technology is at a point where it can meet them.
The problem as ever is the news vacuum. One has to presume that there is no news because there is nothing to say. We know that Alkamem is probably not adequately developed for large scale commercial use, and we know the solid cell is not available until 2022 (although they should be partnering with train and ship builders who are planning their future models right now) so this leaves the liquid cell. Construction sales seem unlikely before the Acciona trial and that is six months away, so it really just leave EV. Seven months since the roadshow, reports of lots on conversations, yet nothing reportable as yet.
I hope EV takes off as it will give AFC, and the SP, a near term boost. But this company will become a billion pound venture, if it ever is, on Alkamem and the solid cell.
AFC remains a very frustrating organisation
Muscorum, reporting obligations are not a matter of opinion, but are clearly defined in the AIM rules and Market Abuse Regulations which were updated in 2014 with a view to increased transparency, market regulation and shareholder protection. I have been reading them in the past week and find them very enlightening. I would just like to see these clear obligations being met.
Points taken. All valid
Was just suggesting that the proposal for the (E)GM to approve the possible issuance of new shares is not to be seen as all doom and gloom.
More part and parcel of prudent company management, than what seems to be sen as a potential betrayal of existing investors.
Options for future growth preferable to no plan and desperate measures detrimental to investors and the company.
I don't see it as writing a blank cheque, more another card to play, rather than potentially having to go 'all in' with a poor hand.
Personally, I would not be looking to vote against this particular resolution
croqman.
They would have various options.
It is only until the next AGM, so quite a short time.
They could use the 31.6 million they had in the bank.
They still have the Thalion funding of a futher 4 million.
If they expect to have spent all that before the next AGM they could call a GM and ask us at the time with an explanation of why it is needed and the price per share they expect to get.
I just don't see the need to write a blank cheque at this point with 31 million in the bank.
I hope 31 million should be enough to develop some shareholder value so that we can be clear there won't be another huge fundraise at 16p.