Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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and i thought Ntorya's onshore 3D was going to be the first ?
Another operator in Tanzania, Dodsal started their 3D seismic acquisition on 21-07-2021.
RUVU block onshore gas targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iy8SRNf5KuU
regarding The work programme and budget to the end of 2021, if i were ARA/APT i would want the "negotiations of the commercial terms for the development licence, " all agreed before paying out $20M for the 3D etc
"The work programme and budget to the end of 2021 anticipates a gross JV expenditure of approximately US$23 million, with Aminex carried entirely for its 25% interest. We expect to see the acquisition of the 3D seismic, prespud activities for the Chikumbi-1 well, negotiations of the commercial terms for the development licence, and the application for a further 1-year licence extension. We are pleased to report that both ARA Petroleum LLC ("ARA") and APT are aligned with the joint venture parties in recognizing the value of our interest in Ruvuma and are focused on seeing this project through to production."
PanAfrican Energy have selected the drilling rig for their work, it might be still available when APT get round to thinking about drilling.
https://www.exalodrilling.com/news/s/contract-with-panafrican-energy-tanzania-limited-tanzania-songo-songo-island
Ending the Non-Virtuous circle:
http://www.tic.go.tz/firstNews/263
Mwambe - Wants Investors Who Have Faced Challenges To See Him .
"...The Minister of Investment, Hon. Geoffrey Mwambe has given 14 days to investors in the country whose investment activities have been suspended in any way due to the decisions of government institutions to write letters and send them to the ministry, as he promised to work on them instantly. ..."
Orca/PANAFRICAN are tendering for drilling services for their well repair and work-overs at Songo Songo.
Tender process started 13-07-2021, Tendering ends 21-07-2021
Well workovers start September 2021, works end December 2021
http://www.vijanatz.com/tz/jobs/jobs/drilling-service-at-ssi/
This follows their promotional presentation at the end of June.
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The other gas producer at Mnazi Bay is also doing some PR to show that it is committed to working in Tanz.
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/supplement/maurel-prom-leverages-on-tanzania-s-gas-beyond-its-calling-3473212
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Virtuous circle:
- Publicly praising the country, the people, the opportunities in Tanz.
- Good working relationship with Tanz government.
- Timely progress on moving investment projects into profitable and tax paying business in Tanz.
Couple of Qs...
Q 1. any thoughts how long a 454km2 onshore 3d seismic would take to complete?
Q2. how long for data analysis / interpretation for imaging results?
Q3. Can 3D seismic be done during rains?
Official approval for seismic would be a positive next move.. have to admit disheartened by slowness of progress, but still holding on grimly..
Well just because you think it does not mean it will happen - as has already been proven with the lack of approvals to date. Logic and common sense plays no part in Tanzanian Politics and anyone that historically has relied upon it will has more often than not been made to look somewhat daft - including many of the current and former posters on this board; me included.
If the weather window is closing and there is no reason not to allow the 3D seismic to start, then the logical conclusion is approval will happen. I cannot think of any reason why seismic would not be approved especially as it's already part of the work programme approved by TPDC.
"weather is a factor"
Yes, as I said earlier, if given total freedom of choice you would time your seismics to coincide with the "weather window" but we have already missed the opportunity for a Q2 start and Q3 is passing quickly. So what do APT do if they don't get their approvals in time to complete the seismics in that "weather window"? That window is shrinking by the day.
Well thankfully, if push came to shove, they could kick it off in the rainy season or, defer until the next weather window that begins in late Dec 2021 and still complete it in time for a Q3 Spud date.
But enough is enough.
Bye bye and good luck all.
no, i was just thinking, the area of 3D that they need, to (optimally locate the Chikumbi-1 well.) ? I am realy beginning to think that we will end up with a totally new CH-1 site. ??
"The 3D seismic will be essential in optimally locating the Chikumbi-1 well to derive the most value in determining both reserve and development potential."
Weather is a factor.
The joint venture has agreed to a work programme and budget to acquire a 400km2 full fold (454km2 surface footprint) 3D survey in the second and third quarter of 2021 to align with the next available operational weather window in Tanzania.
They would need to complete it before getting a CPR for any re-evaluation of the underlying resources. And bear in mind that this includes areas never previously surveyed, they have done nothing at all previously focusing on the Lower Jurassic targets - and no 3D at all.....
The next "dry season" starting latter part of December 2021 (when, by the way, AEX have initiated their last two drills) would leave them 7 -9 months for the seismic programme before a Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep) 2022 spud date. June 2021 (Q2) to Q1 2022 (Q1) would be 7 - 9 months. So, whilst I take your point, it is still doable and in any event we are already in Q3 so Q1 2022 is now only 6 - 8 months away. Fwiw I expect the seismic programme and the analysis to take circa 6 months plus from the day that they start the ball rolling. So a Sept "kick-off would give results, post analysis completion, in March/April.
My earlier point is that APT were likely as not never realistically anticipating a Q2 2021 start and had left options in their timeframe to allow for delays - we have already had a delay in the approvals and we still have no knowledge or indication of when they will come. Thankfully the timescales indicated allow APT the necessary wiggle room to miss the Q2/3 dry season window and still complete it in time for a Q3 drill.
However this is all somewhat unimportant if, like me, you do not believe that the "dry season" is a material consideration. APT could start at anytime in October, November or even in December (wet season) if required to by any significant delays in the "approval".
I hope we see some progress fairly soon (end of August) but recognise that nothing is guaranteed in Tanzania; thankfully APT know that through bitter experience.
i realy don't know but i'd imagin, given the large area to be survayed, that the 3D seismic would be broken down into many smaller areas and then brought together at the end, so maybe the CH-1 drill area will be the first to be survayed, so APT will be able to get an early look at, before the rest of the 3D is compleat ??
You said that if the dry season was a relevant requirement to acquire 3D seismic and it wasn't acquired this dry season, then there was enough time to acquire it in the next dry season and still spud in Q3. You are now saying they expect to NOT have seismic by Q1 or Q2 next year even if they had started acquiring it in Q2, because things take longer and they have chosen a Q3 drill date to allow wiggle room for delays. Yet you seem to think that they able to acquire seismic in the dry season next year and still be able to drill in Q3. That's just not logical. It's not an interpretation by myself, your posts are not logical. Lets remind ourselves of exactly what Aminex has said and what the timing actually is for the 3D seismic.
Ruvuma Operations Update.
The tendering for the acquisition of 454 km2 3D seismic has been completed and the Operator awaits approval from the Tanzanian authorities for the issue of the seismic acquisition contract. It is expected that acquisition will now commence later in the third quarter of 2021. The Chikumbi-1 exploration and appraisal well is now expected to commence drilling early in the third quarter of 2022.
"By your logic, you reckon they would also do the the 3D seismic in Q3 this year and interpret it ready for drilling in Q3 or Q4 in the same year. "
I do not follow what you are saying above. "By your logic?" Nothing I have said could be interpreted as you have, above. Indeed quite the contrary, by my way of thinking, they are drilling Q3 next year because they do NOT expect to have the seismic results before Q1 or Q2 next year. And that is true whether they started seismics in Q2 this year or not - because those seismics will take a lot longer than you seem to believe.
However by selecting a Q3 drill date they have bought themselves some wiggle room in case the seismics or anything else for that matter get delayed by Govt red tape and long lead times.
Anyway, enough of this banter. Nothing will we say will change anything - lets just wait and see.
Anyway PoC here we are just short of two weeks after the last RNS and what is the share price? Above 1p? Nah, on the 29th June (the day before the RNS) the mid price was what? 5.75p and what is it today? 5.75p
My post from 1st July. "Let's see where we are in a week or two's time FJ, once the dust has settled; not much different from where we are now is my expectation."
So much for the hype eh PoC?
The reason they gave spud date of Q3 next year is it gives them the option of bringing it forward to Q2, which gives a longer period of the dry season to drill. They were basing this on the seismic being done this year, which gives them enough time to process it after Q3, while it's the wet season, ready for start in Q2 if they wanted or the stated Q3.
Oh and fwiw, I do think it is perfectly possible to run a seismic programme in the rainy season; maybe not the ideal scenario given total freedom of choice and conditions on the ground might impact the speed of completion but that aside, perfectly possible.
I have just seen your most recent post PoC and mid October is typically when the Rainy season starts - so even if they started next week they would only get 10 -12 weeks of seismic work complete before the Rainy season starts and that even assumes that they could kick it off next week; there would be a lead time to consider to get kit to the site. From what I have seen in similar scenarios that is not likely to be long enough to complete such an extensive seismic programme*. However, most relevant, as I said above I do not think the rainy season is a major consideration in any event.
* ( I would be interested to hear from any Seismic SME's that can offer a professional opinion)
Hence I do agree with BG, a September kick off is most likely in my view - necessary "approvals" notwithstanding of course.
Even if they did seismic in Q2, They would still not have enough time.
Let's say they were drilling Chikumbi this year in Q3 or Q4 rather than next year. By your logic, you reckon they would also do the the 3D seismic in Q3 this year and interpret it ready for drilling in Q3 or Q4 in the same year. Not enough time.
I don't think so. The long dry season is June, July August, September and October. Plenty of time to get the 3D seismic in. After that, the rains come , November to late May. If they don't get approval for the seismic this year then they won't be drilling next year. That's not what the Government want, imo.
The point I was making PoC is that a drill date of Q3 of next year allows more than enough time for the Seismics to be completed even if they run late. There is now insufficient time to complete the Seismic programme before the end of the "dry season" as you were suggesting - so if the "dry season" were to be relevant requirement for the seismic programme it may not now happen until the next one and that even if that were the case there would still be time enough to complete it and allow analysis in time for Q3 Spud date.
Putting it in a simpler way, if the Tanzanian Government are expecting the drill to take place next year as they want it to, and remember it's their gas they need out the ground due to the rising demand from users, then what are the Government going to say if one of it's departments hasn't given timely approval for the 3D seismic, if the well ends up not being drilled.
Yes, but you have to understand the Tanzanian Government have approved the budget and drilling for next year which means the 3D seismic comes first before the drill and it's programmed in for Q3 as approved by TPDC as necessary for the work programme. So timewise Q3 is logical, pending Tanzanian authorities approval of the tender and contact and contractor. Make perfect sense.