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Buckler...I’m quite aware of that fact and purely posting events that have happened, not any future SP predictions. That said, if the Potential gas play from seismic plots of CH-1 are anything to go by, we could be in for a similar ride!
Og newbie
Very possibly you are right.
But do not discount those of us who have held for years and averaged down and are still holding. I have doubled my holding between N2 and the farmout announcement.
With anything like a medium term view this is the bargain of a lifetime at 1p.
Actually almost 4 years! Time flies when your enjoying yourself!
OG, only three years?! Blimey you have had it easy OG. My sentence is now 11 years and counting.... and I am a "Johnny come lately" compared to some :0)
I hope you are right OG ;-)
So just prior to NT-2 results the SP was around 3p. On RNS of the results which was a gas payload of approx. 10x NT-1, the SP peaked over the coming weeks to 7p. Was Tiptop a main contributor to this, I don’t know. It then dropped back to around 5p due to poor flow rate results and held for a while in anticipation of NT-3. So most of the newbie investors at the time, including myself naively held for NT-3 which never happened. FOMO! And a lot have averaged down since. Now IMO these newbie investors (medium term investors now) are most likely to get out on the CH-1 spike, BUT IMO there will be a new set of investors that see 50+% rise on LSE due to CH-1 results and mostly stick around for CH-2, CH-3 etc, due to FOMO, having not endured the last 3 years of being an Aminex investor.
Agreed CP, if you go back far enough on this Thread you will see that, in effect that was my starting point; why would people continue to hold this share after the CH1 drill? The inference being that it is likely to spike at that point and then settle back until the next material landmark. So maybe this is not a long term hold but a series of shorter term holds - maybe all the way to production and beyond
+1 Chris
The bottom line is that the market likes a drill and AEX are carried for up to 6 drills, WEN have no activity on the Horizon whilst AEX shareholders are expecting a spud date soon.
Sentiment plays a very large part in the market dynamics of small caps the next spud here looks like an exciting drill across two Geological layers & targets, almost like 2 drills in one but half the price ;)
That is a fair challenge BG and I accept that AEX is not directly comparable to WEN, nevertheless the analogy is valid in my view - even if AEX eventually has an income far greater than WEN's, looking at WEN's MC it would have to be many times that figure to justify an sp of 10, 8 or even 6p. And how long will it be until that income exceeds WEN's income markedly?
I also fully recognise that income is not the only driver - assets are vitally important too and AEX has potential far greater asset wealth than WEN I agree but the value of these assets will be (always have been) highly discounted due to time to market, development risk and other considerations.
Crusty, you seem to be missing entirely, the Elephant the room, i mean the geology, and not just Ntorya Cretaceous, which we know to have good up-side from here, but the potential the Likonde Jurassic will offer, which will provide upwards momentum beyond Ntorya, and i would argue the WEN/M&P license is lacking in that regard.
check out pages 63 onwards
https://tools.morningstar.co.uk/tsweu6nqxu/globaldocuments/document/documentHandler.ashx?DocumentId=229216175
Oh and yes, I do recognise that it is not a fair comparison as WEN is hobbled by their UK AIM listing only being their secondary market and without any meaningful UK liquidity but you get my point, I hope?
Hi Jetty, I fully understand your logic and agree with most of it but I would ask, how many long term holders will still be here after the CH1 spud? And more, will AEX still be AEX by the time Ntorya starts to yield a "dividend"? Moreover, looking at WEN, would you still want to be a shareholder at that time? As Highyield alluded to earlier today if being an income generating dividend paying Tanzanian Gas producer gives you an enterprise value equating to the WEN MC why would you bother to hold?
Blue day a blue day Tans something to treasure lately have a good nite folks !!!
I take your point but the fact remains in 2022 when the gas and the money is flowing this share will be worth a lot more than 1p a share. So the game is to judge the right moment to get on or off the roller coaster.
I previously held a lot of Solo shares but the dilution and issues over funding there made me switch over to Aminex as the free carry guaranteed the profit. We all know what is coming but PIs like to play their games to eek the extra few points out of each share.
The drop from 1.5p to 1p hurt and I am sure some smart operators profited there. I hold because I didn't see so severe a drop coming and I believe I can sell later for a lot more money.
Did someone say dividend?
the only bit of missing information is the colour of your yfronts Frank.
just got back from a walk, and its looking better here : )
I got a lot of time for Malcy and it tragic or Karma whatever you call it but 2.7p I could of got the stock he on the BOD`s with so if people *****ed that I`m a trader they forget the 100% I lost out on waiting for the Farmout to complete, I really want this to go well for everyone but until we know exactly when we can`t hedge, some might not want to wait until MAY/JUNE but for me that is a result and because touch wood my Football Business is going from Strength to Strength sales up 35.84% Y on Y and two months to go, it is a shame I`m thinking of giving it all to my brother to concentrate on my talent I have investing but never had the money as stuck here before but anyway looking forward and 3p will put all what was dreams into reality 1.065 (PAID) NOW GLA !!!
Looking good now buys coming back last chance to get in under 1p
Bargain
I think it cheap AA but I missed out on 65% of the initial daily rise on the day so I had to sell as close to the top as I could before and try to get back in cheaper, I`m still 40% short but happy with the effort I made to make up, but I keep saying it but I wasn`t prepared to go from 28k to maybe 4-6k on no Farmout and looking back now and the share movements it gone in my favour really but "Fortune Favours The Brave" anyway not all my own way as I could of trade NCYT form 7.96 to 9.50 but bottled it due to concerns about Donald Dick and not sure and I felt it overvalued anyway so want to stick with stocks like this one that is Guaranteed 2-3p on the Drill come what may GLA !!!
Could stop myself just a couple of k worth good luck all
Frank, Malcy said 3p and he's never wrong) well there was Panr I suppose?
Just took £5k
fabulous but 20% down on my last purchase so it automatic thing really, but I do like follow the leader and if it wasn`t for Donald Dick over the pond concerns I would of put more in as I was trying to think what was fair value for the share and it was 2p so then in my pee brain head I thought what is the lowest this could go and I had .77-.80 but this is my worst worst ever prediction as folks are not stupid what this is worth on the drill so .943 was ok to be fair, will this be my last chance to steal some at that price only time and Donald Dick will tell ;o)
If it breaks 1.1p I’ll start to get excited lol....