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Best of luck with your new venture. Interesting take on the resources issue, also accurate.
Understood. I hope no one throws spanners in the works for you there, which can happen.
All the best
Who said I was doing anything with wood pellets???
Wood pellets is a mugs game, just as Spinks and Rowan. Too much grief for a high risk industry that produces little rewards.
It is a pump and dump industry, set it up and then sell as quick as possible.
I am into food production, always have been. Pellets in Nl was just a stepping stone, and for me a big strategic mistake which cost me time and money. NL is a big isolated island with over 500,000 people and the biggest food dessert I know of, which imports 90% of their food. Supposed fresh produce takes 10 days to truck in and that is in good weather.
Atlantic Canada has 2.33 million people all with the same issue, it is only PEI that is different.
Anyone who knows the industry will tell you how dangerous our food chain supplies are. NLshops regularly run out of food, even in the UK we had lettuce rationing last year due to weather being too cold or too hot. Now we have the coronavirus, locust plagues, wildfires, threats of war, trade wars, crop diseases and worse of all water shortages across the globe, just as the global population is increasing. By 2050 25% of the world population will be african, massive increases in India, Pakistan, China, far east, MENA countries, all of these countries with serious resource and pollution issues. We are heading for a near global famine that will kill hundreds of millions.
So sorry nothing to do with pellets or biomass, but something you can really get your teeth into. :-)
Fair to say there is a slight conflict of interests with your posting with your own ambitions in NFL and elsewhere? Or completely unrelated?
Zee. The last post I wrote was when I was tired so probably not my best writing.
1st of all I am aware that Spinks's RMDE and AEG ae separate entities, and I have some knowledge of RMDE as Spinks spoke to one of my contacts in Newfoundland about working on the project with him.
Project costs I am reasonably good at over the years especially as I went through more or less the same when we looked at setting up a pellet operation, and I will remind you that they were in the same provinces and states of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Georgia and North Carolina. So I reasonably know energy costs, logistics costs and limitations and of course timber supply costs because I still have all the old excel sheets I produced. Admittedly there will be slight changes over the last few years but they wont have changed that much. I also negotiated a contract with Drax for the Newfoundland project, so I have that knowledge and experience as well.
If you read recent reports for Nova Scotia it was mentioned that at the moment they are discussing that one option is to increase chip exports. One of the largest markets for chips is the chip board manufacturers in Turkey and now because of the issues between China and the USA, Great Northern are now shipping to China as well out of Sheet harbour, and the eco activists are up in arms about it, so expect problems there. Great Northern also own the ill fated Upper Muscuodoboit pellet plant. Great Northern is run by Tony Mee who I knew quite well when I was there.
I am not personally attacking Spinks per se, because I dont know him, but I do know others who do. I am passing on what I know about how he as operated and that is different, and it is his business 'style' and ethics that concerns me, and how investors have lost a great deal of money because of it.
I have no idea why you think my activities in North America were illicit, can you expand on that?
As for being unsuccessful, that is in part true but you cant win every time, but for your interest I have recently been asked to return to Newfoundland to resurrect a project there, and we are currently in discussions for Β£15 million of funding. It may or may not happen but at the moment it is looking good and I should know next week more on the T&Cs for the funding.
Newfoundlander some very interesting points for sure and your analysis track record regarding AEG's attempts in Newfoundland was neigh on perfect.
So firstly Spinks is there with RMDE and AEG have no relationship in that part of Canada.
Furthermore you have no overview or understanding of any costs related to the business models that may or may not have been presented to the parties.
Wood chip sales are many years ago and irrelevant Peter.
Peter sadly you have only undermined what was an accurate opinion previously.
Lastly again you cannot refrain from attacking Spinks and there wasn't one person who advised me of your lack of success and potential illicit activities in North America.
Those are valid points Nf. The closure of the paper mill throws out some opportunties that were not there previously.
As I was saying in the last 5 years the USD.CAD exchange rate has fluctuated by over 20 %
I could go on but I wont and I cant write on here everything I now otherwise I will be suspended like the last time I tried
I have no idea why Spinks and AEG are in Canada, it makes no sense at all. If big successful well funded companies cant make it work there, why do you think Spinks can. Spinks is not the messiah he is just a very naughty boy, anyway, as they say all ways look on the bright side of life.
Interesting timing as I spoke today with the person who told me about Spinks in the beginning. We did talk about Spinks and Nova Scotia and it was all bad. In that I mean we just rattled off all the issues and why it wont work.
I wont go into everything as it will take too long, but for a forest to be profitable you need to sell ALL biomass. That means the good timber logs, the pulp quality logs and the rubbish left behind. At the moment the markets are not there.
Pulp mill has shut down, Trump has tariffs to reduce the US market for Canada, and the best they can come with is to sell wood chips to Europe and Turkey, but that makes no sense and there is no money to be made.
There is also the environmental groups in Nova Scotia who have shut down the timber industry piece by piece, after all it is they who got the Northern Pulp paper mill shut down, it is they who killed off the Bowater sale to those who wanted to build a pellet plant in 2012. Same with New Page in 2011
Timber and logistics prices are high in the province compared to Georgia or NC, and especially energy so nobody is interested in moving in., and please dont say AEG or Spinks is different, they are not. They have shown no business sense, have no history of getting things done, and loads f history of failing to deliver. Dont you think serious investors dont know this???
Then there is the cost of converting the Trenton sight. It is not just the cost of the AEG machine, there is the infrastructure cost of the storage yard, the weigh scales, and effluent capture and storage.
So where is the money coming from?? Yes they might get some government money but I doubt it, but then you are back to mug investors who buy more shares to dilute the original share holders and then we are back to why I joined this chat site in the beginning.
The expected increase in the market for pellets is less than 7%, but environmental conditions is going to make it harder and more expensive for producers. This is a high volume low margin industry generally based on the US$, The CAD/USD
newfoundlander id like to hear your views on the possibility of a nova scotia deal happening. if i remember right you thought it wouldnt happen or was a bad idea if memory serves me right.
does sounds good for AEG if RMDE/spinks can pull this off. minimum risk to AEG but could reap rewards for years to come of they can build up to 600k tons
So another (say) $2m licence agreement, the Plant itself to be bought off AEG and then 600,000 Tons a year at $5/ton royalty - this will be a cash cow if it all comes off.
https://pictouadvocate.com/2020/02/19/rmde-ready-to-set-up-shop-pending-approvals/
So, if RMDE manages to pull this off and secure the site (subject to certain conditions) will this mean that they will need to pay AEG for an upfront Coal Switch licence for Nova Scotia also? If they do, they might as well take/sort Newfoundland and Labrador while they are it, leaving AEG to concentrate on USA/Asia/EU market
I know Newfoundland will not agree re the Nova Scotia plant as he said there will be no chance of this happening but maybe things have started to change for the better - the site has been on the market for some time with no takers!
Although If RMDE take on anymore Coal Switch licences they might as well just take over AEG - after the Licence money already provided plus the shares owned by Mr Derrickson and Mr Spinks it might make sense considering the current market cap!
Can still sell big volume with 6.25 million on the bid - someone surely has an order to fill!
Certainly something going on!