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i think as long as we close about 3.60p or higher all will be fine. Today would be nice
b2b i would say that last candle is very suspicious on TV as we closed higher than where we opened, the one on TV shows incorrect data imo..
imo chart looks like suspicious especially the last candle, we'll see.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tSqVvHqY/
And another Large delayed buy…
Ok not the barnstorming Rocket to the moon kinda day but still not a bad start to the week and Mr 3.9p would like to see himself in profit in the not too distant future. :-)
I don't think these are all sells: most are very close to the mid-point.
I am amazed at all the sells coming in once it had moved up a bit! Impatient or our seller in disguise?
My calcs of three weeks ago had today as the day I expected to see the placing shares all but come to an end so I'm not gonna argue with SundayRoast's thinking.
@Sundayroast, ... can't really say that, but we should set higher lows further forward. I haven't had the time to watch full volume of shares per day, although there maybe some here who have been watching and can answer that...it's a tedious job watching and totalling daily volumes.
Didn't take a lot to move it today.
I'm thinking the placing shares have all been flipped.
The shares at this price will be in very sticky hands.
I cant see anyone selling knowing spud is getting increasingly closer.
We will now see significant buying pressure and SP increase
3.9 just paid for 1.2M
breaking resistance,at last
3.63 - 3.72 +8.89%
We have lift off. Can see this 4p+ this week then onward and upward!
We have a August high of 3.74 that i would like to see broken, a 3.6p close would also break our highest close which was 3.58 also back in August.
@ST
"Once drilling commences, we expect to reach the target in around 35 days and, given our modelled economics, this well has the potential to be value transforming for Carnarvon."
When does drilling part? Is that the part where it says 'on schedule to spud in early November'?
Cheers for any help.
s.t. fully agree ,as usual.
@Wyndrum, I totally agree with you mate, but it's a hard concept for people to follow, especially when they're led by others ramping away. Noob investors put on blinders and are not interested in logic... dreaming of riches, private yachts and properties in the Maldives lol.
When people like you or myself put out logical advice...even as simple as, "Always bank profit", you get labelled a de-ramper and mob tactics are deployed... Hence I no longer bother with it. Best time to give such advice is now, well before the company, (this or any other), is burning in the spotlight!
Crossing that line becomes less investing and rather more of a gamble. Over the years, I've literally witnessed so many individuals crying about how much they've lost because they've listened to rampers, or a group of rampers, (who incidentally couldn't give two f**ks about the next man), who'll have an exit plan and leave the 'less experienced' holding the baby, as the term goes.
Good Research....Entry points, exit points... It's just good business sense to have a plan.. and furthermore it leaves with plenty more time to research others you can add to the portfolio.
LW, thanks for your remarks.
And as its a Sunday morning, just a bit of TA musing.
I think one of the biggest aspects of charting that is rarely discussed is when to sell. Its baffling to non TA folk with all the talk of trendlines and indicators etc when saying when to buy and target prices etc etc. Those who don't get peeved by it , are quite attentive just to see if it pans out as forecast. What people are less interested in is when to sell. When to bank that profit.
(I am genuinely delighted that you got out when you did on HE1 by the way)
All TA trades should have a plan based on the charts thus far in front of the individual: you wait for a certain price to hit to time your entry, and also you should have 2 prices for when you sell. the first one being, if the stock falls to a point where you feel the market has proved to you that your initial buy was wrong (your loss) and the target price where you think the SP is going . (your profit.) A popular ratio of this risk is reward is 3 or more. (3-1, doesn't have to be, just seems popular)
So, as a simple example I buy stock A at 30P. I will exit it at a loss if it falls to 27p (potential loss 3p or 10% of my capital)
My target therefore has to be at least 39p (9P gain or 30%) so my risk reward is 3-1, could lose 3p per share but could make 9p). If the chart "says" its only going to 36p then that would be 2-1 and that's not worth the risk to my capital, so I would not enter the trade
Sometimes on well traded stocks with a long(er) history you might be in a position when you have a risk reward or 5 or more. Same example as before, so 27p is the downside risk, but the target (maybe the next resistance point) is 48p and this example now is a 6-1 risk reward ratio (happy days, potentially!!)
The thing is, once the individual has developed a system that is accurate enough for overall profits to be consistently made then it becomes very mechanical. And the biggest side advantage of that, being so mechanical, is that it removes the emotion from the whole exercise.
I have always tried to get this across, but whatever system anyone uses (incl. LTB&H) you should have a plan prior to buying, the entry price and the 2 selling prices. I also have a time limit as well as part of my plan, as the length of time you hold a stock plays a huge part in the individuals over all return. (I would rather have a 50% return in 3 weeks that 100% in 12 months, for instance) but each to his own.
it is fascinating (well it is to me anyway), but as always its down to the individual. I have found not found a system yet that is full proof, but this works better than any other method and I think I have tried them all over the last 40 years!
GL
Thanks for the response Bladey. I always like to hear from chartists as they bring a different perspective and insight. I followed Wyndrum's posts with close interest on the Helium One bb, and thought some of the opposition his TA postings received on that bb were from people who were very ignorant in dismissing the value of something they thought they knew about, but from their postings it was clear that they did not. There were some non-sensical responses and I think Wyndrum made a valiant effort to try to educate others (but many were just not having it).
As for He1, managed to exit that debacle at just the right time but the bb (and seeing hope, fear, greed and cognitive bias/dissonance play out) was a bit of an education.
Watching NZ V SA rugby on catch up, its half time so I thought I would pop in. Its right that you get recognition for your charting work Bladey, as I've said before you've nailed movement almost to the minute. I get that its just a tool amongst other tools/signals/fundamentals but often having the right variation of tools are the making of the job. Thanks for your posts.
Now just have to wait for half time to finish;-)
Bladey
I think that might just be the most interesting post I’ve ever read on here. I follow a lot of the Chartists like Wyndrum on here with great interest.
It’s not something I gave great credence to at first as I always thought of myself as a fundamentals investor, sometimes a gambler when I’m taking a punt on something. But have come to realise that you need as many tools in your armoury as possible.
I’m slowly using moving averages, RSI, MACD, etc, to try and time my entry and exit points better.
@LegalWolf, Every stock will have its unique chart pattern, but yes in general AIM stocks are viewed in the shorter term in comparison to the higher tier index's for sure, simply because of what I said in my earlier post that AIM is the make and break of companies to establish themselves. There are sooo many examples out there... Helium one being a classic example, not yet done and dusted but rather now in limbo.
The S/C is a lowly 34M atm I would expect it to be around double that mark by the beginning of November,all things being equal
Hi Bladey - a very interesting post. Do you find that the traditional charting methods work only or best in the main market stocks? Alternatively, could it be said that AIM stocks are more conducive to deploying very short term charting and trading methods because of their high volatility (by comparison to the main market). And with this lower timeframe in mind, do the Japanese (and other) methods you refer to work with AIM stocks?