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Naturally there is a competition for shares down here from buyers.
Value buyers
Cash buyers that missed the original ML jump
Side line buyers that as soon as they see it turn will come flooding in
Technical/chart buyers
It is all in the zone for these people.
I think 1m shares is about the limit on any buying spree before the MMs are on the back foot and the bid has to race up to find new sellers. They keep a thin market here, MMs don't like to sit on a lot of shares.
This seller we know over 2 years has sold near 8% of ACP, we know why. Start of October had 16m, so suspect that is gone by now and the funds needed for Volt were well known (no doubt tax implications on cashing so much in). Now they have access to warrants....warrants ACP expect to see cashed in before build starts, it is part of the projected funds needed for build. If they are not taken they will be lost. This does not mean they will be instantly sold by said seller as they only sell when they are in need of funding their own new ventures. Even if they sell those they will have to be sold one day, but we know they are not being sold due to some worrying thing at ACP.
Many of the rest of the warrants are in the hands of MB, family and friends so suspect those to be held tight once taken.
NT is only when the MMs need to call a halt on proceedings to see if they can balance up the other side of the book, making a call will likely get the shares needed, they will just have to keep moving up the BID to capture new sellers and the buy volume comes back. Any purchase here below 5p is a steal, below 6 is still extremely good value, once this lot of news is out pre build I will be sorely annoyed if AIM cannot value this 10-12p conservatively. Bonus could be the DFS expansion pushing that NPV further out therefore instantly undervaluing it further. They literally just have to mine more than 25% of resource and put some figures on it. Teh resource is already there, but when the first DFS was done the market in EVs and demand for graphite was not as rosey as now and no one was looking to make huge mines, but it can be seen in BKM that once offtakers starting signing up it was clear more material was needed for market, same could be true here.
yeah so far I've resisted selling one share in loss to buy another as undervalued but it is a relative value game at the end of the day. Personally happy with the risk/reward profile of my portfolio but there comes a point where a share like Armadale drops to a number where many more multiples are likely than other shares what do you do? Buy it of course. That's how I got to 9m anyway. GLA
a bit of a sxxt show to say the least!!!
Hey wassa thanks for the reply pal, iv just sold up another at a 35% hit to put into here and RMM
Hopfeully things will take a turn soon
Cheers
Yes leathal around 9m shares and hoping to hold all (or worst case, most) to 2023 and beyond. I may need some cash off the table 2022/23 and hoping not to have to sell any Armadale but in any case would run the majority of my position past production. The problem is the classic one - when you need to access cash (I expect to need to in next 1-2 years) you really need all your stocks not to be on their knees. I can't say my portfolio is finishing strongly in 2021, it probably had a higher closing balance in 2020 and I've put a shedload fresh funds in this year! I'm sure I'm not alone, last few months have been a bit of a s***show to be fair on the old AIM. GLA
Wassa did you say you were long here ? Atleast 2023?
Strummer I think there are a few long term investors (I see a few on twitter) who buy when the price drops so it has support in that sense. I don't know what size etc. and to date Kabunga always managed to out-sell the buyers. News before Christmas (surely) hopefully the catalyst for better things to come. We're now at or below last placing price (which was at market) which was before the licence award! Madness... if only had funds to capitalise.
Thanks for the detail AIM.
Appreciate the info. I have to date only built a small stake of 850k shares here. So far at around @4.78p. But as mentioned was trying to build up a to anything under 5 ?
I can see, & as discussed, that this one is under current & constant selling pressure that's seemingly holding the price down. Though as per my recent experience, buying any volume still was going NT on me last week. So it remains despite this rather illiquid....? So figure that even with the heavy selling someone is loading up as our friend jetisons them, which is an interesting sign....
I will likely be targeting a few more while it's under or around 5p in the coming week(s).
Like a few others, and as you may have read there. Despite the hoopla I personally found the recent package on HZM was a bit of a let down. Whilst I added a few on the dip, and still hold a decent amount there. I am interested now in leaving that to ride and looking elsewhere frankly. Areas likely closer to production like here are of interest.
I already hold a decent amount too in a Cu recovery play that I think may be very strong come Q4 next year ( they have v good grades, but mines in real need of industrialising and proper turnaround). But they are already producing, which I am completely coming to see now as a major boon the way this fickle market is...
Here I see something a bit between my Cu play (Rambler) and the longer term ( still strong resource though) that JM holds at Horizonte etc. So the faster we get to the build here the better I would think?
Anyhow. If Bwana reads it right the selling pressure may ease soon here perhaps (?). So I guess I may have less time to build a larger position than I first thought....
Will monitor over the next couple of weeks. But again. Thanks to you all for your inputs.
Cheers.
PR has been terrible, but he didn't want to waste money until the big push at the end, soft PR with the seller (known and reason - HZM have had distresssed sellers 3 times and many made a killing getting in lower due to it) would just be lost with seller soaking up. We await to see if the promised increase comes when the news starts to flow.
Blessing in disguise the delay? Graphite market has been moving on, prices whilst rising steadily from last year starting to crack on, slow output season in China now will lead to supply pressures and even better prices just as DFS is released and finance struck. Not a bad thing at all. Offtakes will have less leverage than they would have had a year ago, now they will be under pressure to offer better deals to secure, prepayment ever more likely than it would have 1 year ago.
Simple mining using simple techniques, low cost, high quality high TGC output (more wonga!), low capex but high NPV.... really low risk, under valued by AIM due to distressed seller and quiet output from company. Even Friday over reaction has lead to a price bargain hunt, but there may be a week of turmoil as markets come to terms Omicron is common cold not the devil incarnate....US markets needed an excuse to cool especially if they want a run up to Xmas.
Risks? Yes of course.
EVs - No risk of them slowing now
Battery tech - Does not matter if LFP or NCM, however new tech may add or replace with silicone in anode, or no anode....but no one expects these to have any real impact on the masses until 2030. The newer tech would only start in the premium sector, the low end and med range masses will make do with LFP long term due to pricing of the new tech.
However we are not dependent on batteries, over half our material is large flake and actually the higher income stuff, high battery demand is like a good by-product as it will enhance the low end of the basket pricing. It helps to have high qulaity out put with low impurities to be front of the queue.
Tanzania - Fairly stable as African countries go, new leader more business friendly, economics background, well known on international stage
Build and mine/plant - easy simple mine with basic well tested plant
CEO - aligned with shares, hurts us it will hurt him (and his family and friends!)
Finance - small and fast payback (just how they like it)
Covid - Well you have very few investments that won't so not ACP specific
hope this helps
Welcome to the fold.
My spidey senses had me be more bullish on ACP over HZM, which is part of my silence over there. I don't tend to bleat on about something when it had got to the end, it was just a waiting game, some others took that mantle on....some more keen than others...ha. I just felt the package was going to dissappoint, too many red herrings from the company.
I feel here there is more chance for a larger rise short term Q4 through to mid year next year. HZM will be dealing with overhang and will take time to get anything Vermelho out to market. Here has a plethra of news to come culminating in Finance and a short (and easier) build.
In fact the risks are significantly lower here over the short term compared to HZM bigger project. MB with 8%, family and friends up to 20% total means more aligned to the finance, economics capex/payback vs NPV is way safer and doable, build smaller and simplier, graphite pricing more stable, in both LFP and NCM batteries. The project is low cost high quality, it has a lot going for it!
As a reminder of where we are at -
https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/pvzx17/dd_armadale_capital_plc_acplse_large_flake_high/
Graphite 2022 -
https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/graphite-stocks-forecast-2022/
BBN on Twitter has some good threads, very good at reading between the lines of RNS and comparing to other projects and how things developed there.
Without doubt expect capex to go up due to inflation, however the basket of prices was set conservatively during low prices of 2020, even if we only go from $1112, to $1300 (peers use as a 'minimum') NPV jumps to $564m and 110% IRR.... this is before BBN drill down into what the 'optimised' DFS will bring. BKM upped their output when they optimised due to greater demand of product. To note their NPV whilst bigger requires 4 expansions but will need 3 x the capex just to start. If ACP expands more (note only using 25% of current JORC, so plenty of product in reserve) that NPV will balloon but will still be a tiny capex. This should be the easiest product to finance, imagine $750m+-$1b NPV with a $45m capex??? (CEO aligned!) Staged expansions are good in that they expand as needed and buyers get locked in future supply they don't need yet but won't have to go to a new/untested mine for that new supply competing with others. Getting from a current tested supplier a lot easier. If you don't need to expand then you don't no one loses out.
All to come very shortly -
Final Feed study accumulating in EPC - could lead to build now pay later and offtake
Final CSIRO battery qualifications
New staff
Optimised DFS
Offtakes
Finance
Build end of Q1 22