RE: Good morning all:)Today 14:26
Here's my view on the global econ (for what its worth, I estimate £2.50).
We had one huge slew of COVID money come into the economy causing inflation.
Therefore inflation impact will be one big hit (that we're mostly over now). Central banks (Fed, BofE, CEB) will manage it back down to 2-3% over the next 30 months.
Markets are returning to normality and US big tech remains largely in-line from a historical PE perspective, despite 'AI boom'. This means you simply have to be in the US big 5/6 or it'll be extremely challenging to beat the market. Also, are the big 5 really going to smaller or larger in 5 years time?.
As interest rates go down, the cash in savings account/mm funds flows back into the market... those who sought the safety of cash will have their head turns by reliable divi players. This should give a boost to the 'old economy' stocks referred to below. As econs start to grow again, mftg picks up, production picks up, construction picks up creating a mini boom for commodity stocks (O&G, mining etc.). FTSE becomes more appealing and lifts the index as whole.
£2.50 please
In short I'm long on US big tech (obvs) and large FTSE stocks who dont have too much exposure to the UK, but generate most of their cash overseas.
As a side I've got a portion dedicated to India and asia ex. Japan... China and India still the two fastest growing economies which will lift themsleves and the region (think US - Mexico impact). I think India is better positioned to grow as it has more native english speakers vs. China (and a more trad. capitalist govt).