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Yip..against LSE posting rules sadly...sometimes you get awaybwith it and sometimes you don t
for stating live price?
operation news on horizon too.
fred - 6 weeks tomorrow... could be something.
Plus, more robust SP action this morning. Could be a sign?
24p please and I'll sell. It's getting tiresome.
Abusive behaviour has many forms, I should know - so it is with business, is what we see most everyday. The hardest to spot are benign - where there are no visible contours of abuse but the conjecture, continual degrading and re-enforcement of failure . EG - robbing a child of parental rights on a Sunday to cause massive damage to a family, is exactly what ONGC did with M1 & I1 build up expectation, silence - that's key silence controls - ignore the past data and wait - and wait to crush the willing development partner. I've seen Coersive control, and it sets up to destroy the respect of the TARGETTED PARTY - in this case Amer BOD - no doubt we have been played. The Big Minch gets this and time to set the record clear, IMO DYOR - GNY GLA . Tender delays - bo= they don't have the cash - my first thoughts they would hide as a cash strapped subsidiary - feign and get Group resources for a smash and grap of CPO 5 . Now I think they want out- Too much for just AMer and they smash and grab of the Sp . Stop there . tired GN
If we take 71 Rupees to the US Dollar - - EXCLUDING GROUP support - ONGV FIDESH - Charlie Uniform November - are same size as PMO $1.4bn Income $115m Profit & +100% debt geared. So What does that mean in the bidding process?? With a bit of ropy Accounting treatment tucked in with subsids - Always look at the Cash flow son . The game is - ONGC HAs Bid powers - with or without group support - that can be negated by AMer PE with or without support -or ONGC looking to GET OUT!!! All in - the short term POO is Fecking a side show its the 5-7 year long is key is a discounted cashflow model when looking at Capital Values for Acquisition or disposal FFS. HNY Swansea immense. Last post late working. GLA Rememb!!! - Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected - with greater rssourcesssss. CPO5 is the ground whether we sell 30 % or co-join a consort for 100% The PI's run us now - what lines their pockets and is easiest to manipulate the SP JW & GC were Crxp meant well, ONGC played that out, Alex Snow light weight though 6ft 8inch English forward - says it all really - joke I like the man have mass respect - ONGC can exert Co- Ersive control due to our lazy approach , we had CPO 5 world is your ish FFS so the SP was doomed by any volatile ONGC sling shot - when no drilling occurred and everything waited on ONGC as they had the star asset - like now, its ALL ABOUT ONGC yet our money is in Amerisur FFS what kind of monkey would let that happen - A Slinky GC and JW set aside by a perfidious ONGC. LIzzars GNY HNY ONGC Accounts - Jesus................
pickedpeck
It was perfectly reasonable to highlight the slight move upwards by the oil price by referring to WTI just as it would have been perfectly reasonable to highlight it by referring to Brent. As I said, average Brent in 2018 was $71 per barrel. In 2018 AMER’s average realised oil price was $64.80 per barrel and the 2018 average for WTI was $64.90. I just thought that Juxtapose’s response was a little patronising, but with hindsight I should have let it pass.
Very good...........agreed, us LTH have been very patient. Can't be long before they put the stamp on.
dunno. But I'd like a cheque, mate.
Volume has all but disappeared, I guess all the pawns are now in place, who's going to get check mate?!
Rosannan, no they are not.
They may be coincidentally for one year where there was a recovering oil price, in a falling market they may actually be higher than the Brent mean. You're also missing the point that the realised price is usually discounted at the well head for transport costs to a terminal, whilst if AMER sell at the terminal they take the transport / pipeline costs as a separate line item. CPO5 production is sold at the well head for Brent price less a few dollars for truck transport. So the realised price varies according to field infrastructure as well as spec.
WTI vs Brent often move separately, the spread between the two has been i.r.o. $2 - $10 over the last few years depending global supply and demand for each. Amerisur's production is linked to Brent as it is the closest in spec to their product, but they may even start at a premium price to Brent as the light oil they produce is desirable for blending with the heavy oil from the rest of Llanos (e.g. Rubiales).
Besides, the F*ckwittery comment wasn't aimed at you in particular, but as you've put your hand up and assumed it was...
AMER's oil tends to be light crude which demands a premium price & BoD refer to Brent pricing.
pickedpeck
I am not sure what the problem is - the reason that I referred to WTI when noting the recent slight improvement in the oil price was because AMER’s realised prices are generally closer to WTI than Brent.
Can we park the outbreak of f*ckwittery ?
Oil price - the delta in realised prices and spot prices is due to the time offset. Hedged production sales and the fact the quoted spot price is for futures rather than the real time price. Its entirely possible in a declining oil price market for a producer to realise more per barrel than Brent mean price, likewise in a rising / recovering market hedged contract prices may lag the current quote for futures. Then you throw in stocks and backlogs, timed offtakes, transport offsets and it gets even more complicated.
Bottom line is in a completely flat market Amerisur's production would sell for Brent price less transport costs. If they were producing WTI spec they would sell for that less transport costs.
Thanks Kelotoni, was worried I was missing them.
Juxtapose
For example, average Brent in 2018 was $71 per barrel. In 2018 AMER’s average realised oil price was $64.8 per barrel. And as it happens the 2018 average for WTI was $64.90.
Do you see what I’m getting at?
Topped up with 20000 1059.11 am
Juxtapose
Have a look at the AMER’s average realised oil price over any given period and see which it is closer to - the applicable WTI average or the applicable Brent average. The answer may surprise you!
He was referring to PPC, RNS
We had a few yesterday but same RNS as over the last few weeks, none today.
Hi Bigsmoke, I'm confused what RNS?
thanks BBN.
i was thinking - if AMER gets away right - of putting some in PPC, but not after this morning's RNS.
@Bigsmoke the Takeover Panel legal guide is in my view essential reading because it demonstrates the tight constraints under which all parties including the directors of AMER must operate.
28 days does indeed sound fair but I have likely made an error in my post from yesterday when I said this would trigger the 'firm offer.' The reality is that the 28 day period is likely the time period needed for each interested party to establish a valuation for the parts of the business they would be interested in. The issue will then be how the parties communicate their interest without falling foul of the Takeover Panel.
I doubt any party will want to be named before they know how likely their possible offer will succeed. Nor will they wish to publish an offer as a firm offer unless they absolutely have to because once they do they are tied to it and must follow through plus everyone else will know what they are willing to pay. They will no doubt attach conditions but are not guaranteed that said conditions will allow them to walk away if they aren't satisfied with how things are proceeding, the legal guide is very clear on this.
The whole set up is very complicated with many possible outcomes because right now we don't know how many interested parties there are nor what they would be interested in acquiring but it is fun at least attempting to dissect it to establish what can't happen or what may come to pass.
Two key requirements from the Takeover Code ;
1. "General Principle 1 provides that Target shareholders must be afforded equivalent treatment – in practice, this means that information must not be disclosed to some Target shareholders but not others. The bid announcement, offer documentation and any revised document must be sent to all Target shareholders"
2. "In order to improve the chances of the takeover offer succeeding, it is helpful if the Bidder can obtain irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer from some of the shareholders in the Target before it announces the offer"
"The Bidder will need to consult the Panel in advance if it intends to seek irrevocable undertakings from individuals, or small corporate shareholders, or if it wishes to approach more than six people before the bid is announced."
The 'equivalent treatment' principle applies to the bid (firm offer), it does not apply to a possible offer and when conducted with the Takeover Panel's approval, allows the bidder to acquire irrevocable undertakings prior to the formal announcement of the bid. In doing so they will highly likely have the directors on board too.
This is why I offer the opinion that the AMER BOD will likely whittle down the interested parties behind closed doors. This process can only take place once the possible offers are known.
So the 28 days is likely the period for establishing that. The n we have an unknown period for whittling down the interest unless one or more parties goes more aggressive.