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I have been in this share for 15 years,so I have witnessed all of the failures. I concluded long ago that Barder was out of his depth.He once phoned me to explain why the condom failure had occurred.If you remember it all resolved around shelf life issues.
Despite Barder’s short comings we now have a fantastic story to tell.The amount of positive publicity the product has generated is amazing.Only at the weekend Amanda Holden referenced Eroxon.
The projections in the half yearlys deliberately excluded forthcoming sales in the USA from the path to profitability.Why?
I understand the need for caution, but surely Barder could spin the story,without misleading the market, in a far more positive way.
Krull, id get our resident FA to check that over, Beech, what's your take on the bed wetting sp behaviour esp today?
It's a lucky thing the market thinks ahead, so should see the share price move ahead before then, the early bird catches the worm so to speak.
I do agree though, was poor PR
The big news was sales are exceeding expectations. That should have meant a boost, maybe just a small one but a boost nonetheless.
But Bashful Barder's focus instead was to tell the world that we won't make "sustainable profit" until 2025. So everyone backs off and waits a year.
Bit annoying because by any analysis I can think of, the company will be in "profit" next year- but Bashful clearly doesn't want to include one-off prepayments or milestone payments in his projections. His use of "sustainable" indicates profitability from sales only I think. A most Conservative approach.
You know, after the first World War where countries had used major ad campaigns to keep people focused on the war effort, "propaganda" and advertising were considered dirty tricks. It wasn't until a chap called Edward Bernays wrote the book on commercial marketing/propaganda in 1928 that companies began to think it might be legitimate to advertise and promote your company to boost public engagement.
I suspect Bashful Barder never got the memo.
Indeed Krull, Leguito has been banging on about other uses here for a while, JB I believe touched on this yesterday. Honestly, apart from the wider economy what is not to like about FUM’s position now. Well funded, unlike plenty of zombie companies destined to fail out there, proven product and preparing to launch around the world over the coming few years. 48p, the most assured position we’ve ever been in and the share price is going down. Be patient and enjoy the ride everyone!
Martinelwick, this my take on you question, It's traders selling on the news, (a common thing) they set the ball running and some investors get spooked and follow.
It's perceived, once the news event is done, there will be no news for a while, which equals share price drifting lower.
However, I believe there will be lots of news flow here, plenty of new territories/country's to announce product approvals, more distribution agreements with upfront payments and millstone objective payments. Also, maybe some surprise positive news on new eroxon application's and formula's, and new product advancement. And of course, a big phama offering to buy us out for 2 billion, LOL.
A couple of very interesting replies.
If these punters are selling for a 10% profit,we are talking about having bought at 44/45p.
I think one of the factors maybe fingers getting burnt following positive news.There must be a significant number of punters who bought at 67p and are sitting on losses.Or see an opportunity to sell following positive news and realise their loss.
As I have mentioned before most PI’s (I think the figure is 70%)never make a profit on their share dealing because they are victims of the greed/fear phenomenon.
Apart from Lombard Odier ( 28.5%) there are no other institutions with significant holdings so the PI base is large. This is why LO will have a big say in any future approach as their votes are essential for a successful deal to get over the line. As always with small caps there will be people who trade this for 10% gains but for those who have been around the market for some time will tell you, the real gains are made, assuming that you have the liquidity, by picking stocks which are unloved/ under the radar and holding them until the ‘market’ wakes up to the potential. The UK market is unloved almost across the board with a small tech sector and challenging economic and political backdrop atm. FUM is under the radar and I would like to see some new and experienced commercial people join the company to support the management team as they grow. The BofE were very slow to react to inflation despite the signs being obvious to a 16-economics pupil and our lack of energy security has forced us to buy expensive energy etc etc. This has affecting all UK listed companies.
This will be sorted out in due course and money will return to UK stocks and those which have a product which is somewhat differentiated and is promoted skillfully, will do very well. This is still early days and the ‘ show me, don’t tell me’ attitude in the markets and the regular sales for the 10% crew when it rises above 50p is enough to keep it down, for now. I have a longer term horizon and a price target of 150p which could be achieved in a couple of years based on a good US launch. Just imagine if we are selling 5m units p.a. in a few years time which is quite possible and the share price will be multiples of where we are today if we continue to exist as an independent, which IMO is very unlikely.
A little company of 14 staff with a product that contains no active ingredient, has European and FDA approval to help solve a massive problem in many. I believe people are still scratching their heads in disbelief that this actually works. A company that has been screwed over by its much larger pharma partners in the past has now had the audacity to go it alone, only now reliant on their distribution partners and with the proven product boldly on sale in Tesco, boots and more. ( I saw it in Tesco last night, unbelievable) I believe people are still in denial like we see with some posters during previous years, but if what we are told by JB and Angela in the last couple of days comes to reality, that disbelief is going to turn into reality! As I said in my previous post the share price will skyrocket and I suspect a buyout will happen.
A number of posters have speculated what the share price might be in the future.Can anyone explain why every time,after the last 5 or 6 positive RNS’S the share price is sold down for 4/5 days before it creeps back to 51/52p.
These are significant inflection points that have no effect on advancing the share price.
I note that in the recent question and answer session the FO observed that we have a large retail investor base,and that this has a negative effect on the share price.This is why FUM are so committed to expanding their institutional base.
Well based on all the data the last few days we can expect the SP to reach £2 in the next 5 years, hopefully £1 by the end of 2024. I suspect if everything goes to plan we are now on a straight line trajectory! Let’s hope as estimates set out by FUM are at the low end I feel! IMO anyway.
Thanks Jet, I'm looking forward to plenty of upcoming news flow events before Aprils update, like upfront payments by new partner agreements, new country launches. Maybe even millstone payments met.
Excellent presentation showing us the outline pathway going forward into 24. I’d say results look pretty spectacular on the back of launch with projections very satisfying. Already looking forward to Aprils update with the likelihood we will be receiving further tie ups in the meantime.
Would personally like to see launches sped up, but take it the company know best. Share price is disappointing but my view is at some stage the penny will drop with a skyrocket increase literally overnight.
As it ain't launched there yet
I also note BE in 24 is based on sales generated, excluding US. Why no US forecast included?
Investor meeting in 35 mins, let’s see what Fum have to say 🙏
Thanks Beech, good post. Let’s hope the analysts agree with you.
Simples DI.
2 things stood out from today's announcement, viz :
- normally financial performance is shown as PBT (Profit, or Loss as may be, BEFORE Tax) whereas chose to flatter Net Loss, quoted as £1.76M, only AFTER writing in an estimated Tax Refund/Credit to be claimed against R & D Costs. Excluding, Operating Loss £1.96M as per P 6 L Statement. However,
- included in latter figure was an Additional £0.55M (£0.1M H1 22) of Non Cash & Other One Off Charges which need omitting if to fully appreciate true operating position
Therefore, I deducted, and, for prudence, rounded up a bit, to come to £1.46M.
All covered under FINANCIAL REVIEW on Page 7 of 8 of today's RNS and elsewhere if one chooses to look.
Taking all into account and on the basis of regular recurring operational and administrative costs (state no change in company headcount) one can visualise, even though some expenditure has been reclassified to take account now more than just an R & D company, now have a reasonably static core cost base. The only caveat is R & D may continue to vary, up or down, depending on what holds in the future but for the present one assumes more of the same. On this premise I applied the same metrics displayed in today's figures i.e
- units sold in H1 given, in general terms, as 200,000 (say =£5M in sales)
- receivables/revenue of £1.7M equates to 34% of cash sales
- GP c53% of Revenues
To project forward a potential BE point which, for a half year, I see as follows
- 500,000 unit sales & £25 a pop = £12.5M
- Revenue ratio of 34% gives Receivables of £4.25M
- continued GPM of 53% yields GP of £2.26M
less
- core cost base of c£2.3M
QED.
There are some variables that could come into play such as does the Revenue Receipt Ratio benefit as volumes increase and/or the GPM improves for the same reason. Either way I can, in my own mind, envisage where we need to get to to start seeing all turn into a sustainably profitable company a la JB
Others have made comments about :
MANUFACTURING
All outsourced, as fully covered in current/past communications though whether have assisted such parties with some early capital/set up costs not known, as far as I am aware. However, with P & E in BS of nigh on £1.1M one could think have invested something into the manufacturing process for the third parties unless totally related to equipment etc. required in own R & D activities.
CASH POSITION
It should be remembered that the company now have some elements of working capital to finance, notably carrying almost £1M of Trade Receivables (as at 31/08/23 will probably be somewhat higher given increasing volume/sales levels) which will have absorbed a like amount of ££££, so this must be factored into some peoples thinking of why cash not as one might have expected.
Hoping the Market/the Analysts understand all of this as if so let us see the SP reflect accordingly.
Fum have actually made all those things clear. Suggest with respect read back through all Rns.
Anyone know how the manufacturing works?, does FUM pay a third party to manufacture the product? Initial tooling setup & then a fixed amount per unit? Looks like manufacturing costs are 50% of FUM’s share or about £4 per unit which seems steep? & on top they have setup costs which also eats into profit but will be temporary! Thank god! Guessing building stock levels for launches will eat into profit initially which is probably the reason for break even in 2024? Sorry just speculating & trying to understand the figures, shame FUM couldn’t make these things clearer!
Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12531821/Spider-venom-new-Viagra-researchers-say.html
TLDR: boners in our wallets soon. So in those assumption of yours where is the other 0.3m loss gone on?
JB spoke of Revs & GP (margin c53%) c4mins in to today's interview all of which can actually be seen in the detailed P&L & associated BS found in Company Documents in Investor Centre page of company website.
Expenses/Costs in H1 23 incl c0.5M of additional One Offs, in reality leaving Op Loss (pre effects of any taxation) of c1.46M.
Extrapolating the numbers out and presuming all factors i.e margins, admin/R & D costs remain similar, a quick calculation suggests operating breakeven for H2 23 could be achieved on 500K of product unit sales (=£12.5M) - given that sales volumes will have progressively grown since Belgium/UK launch one could envisage run rate is now greater than the 200K unit sales announced as having been effected during the HI (effectively Q2). On my estimation target for BE is 80/85K of unit sales p.m. which according to JB narrative, clearly thinks is an achievable target for 2024 which is only 3 months away from starting!! My assumptions regarding profitability discount any financial effects of the Haleon up front payment as depending on the terms of the agreement may well have to be amortised over a given period.
All we need to get to the "Promised Land" is to keep hearing the tills ringing!!
10 more countries going live in next few weeks/months
New Asia deal to be announced with huge interest.Possible new upfront payment to be received
Most commercial agreements consist of staged payments, especially regarding companies doing the heavy lifting.
The biggest take away from the results for myself was the clarity of figures enabling PI,s to calculate the standing of the company. It is clear that, as Barder reiterated several times through the interview, the company is now well placed for the future. The SP trajectory is still headed one way, and should be aided and abetted by interjection of news of deals and launches. I personally feel more confident now.