The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Surely you're not clutching the Mike Rego straw again mctripe?
This is old, old news! Oil seeps in Rufiji and Ruvuma Basins have been recorded for years, Aminex published a lot of work since their first field trip to the region in 2003, and the ex-Aminex personnel involved have continued to work on the source rock story of the region and have published papers on this as recently as 2022 detailing the potential of all the various source rocks believed to be present. There isn't much new in the Sabuni 2023 paper. The source rock history is complex, but much of the gas is derived from source rocks that were originally oil prone. Also, despite the claims of some people it is unlikely that Cenozoic source rocks have the capability (i.e., kerogen type or presence) to generate oil in anything but small quantities in localised areas in Rufiji and Ruvuma.
These were posted on here last year.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/148862/industry_consultant_theres_still_oil_to_find_in_east_africa/
Watch the two videos on this page
https://www.findingpetroleum.com/biography/Mike-Rego/c7fce48d.aspx
"We have discovered the presence of oil in some rocks in the regions of Ruvuma, and Coast (Rufiji), some gas wells also have the ability to produce oil, which is good for the country," said Sabuni, adding that the university invites investors to use the study findings to produce the discovered oil.
Barama. It was the university and yes Rufiji within Ruvuma as it stated which is north of the 3D area.
Here is the cached version
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:UFD2jwRLu1wJ:https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/udsm-makes-oil-discovery-in-rufiji-ruvuma-4289708&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
I said it was there ages ago..https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2949891023001756
Rufiji basin is to the north of ruvuma , who is drilling there?
Yes I've just seen on Telegram. Very strange. Maybe it's been leaked to the press without government consent
Document not found, it's been removed, I wonder why?
Of course, huge oil companies like ARA aren't interested in profit, they are only doing this as a community project, to help the Tanzania community with jobs and a supply of gas to their doorstep!
If only ARA could lose money on every scfd of gas they would like it even more, it would be a cause to fund a Tanzania public holiday with fully funded street parties in every city, town and village!
RJ's sole purpose on this chat board is to talk our investment down. As I have said so many times before, he is just the weirdest of 'so called shareholders' is he not ? Can someone please explain his logic ? If you are holding some shares, you want to see the share price rise, yes ? There has to be another motive....
Is there the implication that Ara et al have invested a small fortune in Ruvuma and Tanzania for no profitable return ? Somehow I don't that is in any way thinkable, although I know some would like it to be believable.
Perhaps some sums could be done on the basis of what they hope to get out of the current first gas project. Again we don't know yet what the tests reveal, but assuming what they expect to get must have sime added value to where we are now.
Well I did already say it was true what you said Crusty. My point was and still is that we invest our money with hope of a return and if there is no indication of such return, then only day traders would bother.
Complete nonsense Jollyboydrewky.
Let's hope you make more sense in your Sunday sermons.
No Roger I do not agree, not least because an estmate of the gas in the ground is no basis for a valuation of AEX whatsoever - an estimate based upon the recoverable gas in the ground might be but, ignoring all of the variables mentioned in my post below, would result in a valuation not even close to a "rough guide" but one that is likely be a million miles away. Let's assume the introduction of just one variable, the COS; if the COS of succesfully extracting the recoverable gas numberwas say 20%, this would then would reduce the valuation by an extraordinary 80%!! And then there are any number of additional considerations (below) which would discount the valuation even further..... notably, in an era of high inflation and interest rates, the time value of money.
So actually Roger, yes, if the only thing we know for sure is the GIPP estimate, there is very little value in the exercise other than that of raising spectacularly unrealistic expectations.
All true, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at where it might be and where it could go based on what we are aware of.
Surely you would agree people invest long based on potential future values, so although it may not be 100% accurate the excercise is imo still worth while, even if only a rough guide. Who knows, we may get a much higher price anyway and variables will always be exactly that. Variable!
The company's value is not based on the estimates of the assets in the ground but the likelihood, cost and timelines for getting that asset to market; hence the HUGE difference between "reserves" and "resources". This involves such things as the estimate for RECOVERABLE reserves, COS, the cost of recovery (FFD), the speed and timelines for extraction etc and only then, after the GSA and Dev plan have been approved, the pipeline built and (MAYBE) the Govt have reversed in to their entitlement to 20% of the project - which is more likely in the event, as is the case, of their building the pipeline.
So something of a pointless exercise in reality - totally meaningless without including all the other factors, many of which are totally subjective or not yet known. And even then would not include variables such as the perceived political and geographic risks, currency fluctuation, AEX not being the "operator", "solvency" and "going concern" risks and a multitude of others that will discount the supposed "NAV".....
Roger, I'll give it a go but it'll have to be at the weekend unless someone that likes those annoying MMbtu and MMscfd calculations wants to give it a go they are welcome!
So SC based on gas estimates atm moment what would be company value at the 3.71 price?
Tanz, it doesn't look nice for your mate Mick20 at Wentworth
The Company anticipates, given the absence of recent investment in the Mnazi Bay field and continued cost recovery, that H2 2023 production will include significant periods where costs have been fully recovered, leading to substantially lower revenues
ยท The Government's re-examination of the historic cost pool audit for the years 2013 - 2015 is ongoing; any reduction in the current expected cost pool balance as a result is likely to further impact revenue going forward
From today's WEN results RNS.
"The contracted price for gas produced at Mnazi Bay has increased from $3.44/MMbtu to $3.71/MMbtu; effective from 1 January 2023"
AEX was being paid $3.00 for KN-1 Gas. $3.71 would be an increase of 23.67%.
"Gas will be sold at $3.00 per mmbtu (approximately $3.07 per mcf) and the price will be adjusted annually by applying an agreed United States Consumer Price Index."
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/aminex-inks-gas-sales-deal-for-kiliwani-north/
In the April airbus images on Google Earth. NT1 has had the undergrowth area cleared back away from the perimeter fence. On NT where the next work is to be carried out there have been two huts built. Also clearly seen on the above images