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Attended at the AGM. Broadly neutral message. The market appears to have bottomed out though little real improvement expected until 25/26. Govt target for current year is for 300,000 new houses but industry does not expect any more than 175,000.
Local authority planning permissions have not been as forthcoming as many planning departments are either understaffed or they just don't want to grant permissions.
It does seem that I was wrong (for just now). It's good for all holders. Will I still have a chance to fill my order, or should I buy at a higher entry? Well, decisions, decisions, decisions...mmmmm
Even though I plan to buy a couple of thousand more this year I think the share price has been low for too long and it’s about time it started moving up!
Looks like it wont go lower :-)
First time a house builder hasn’t used “challenging conditions “ in an update. I presume they will push to go above their highest estimate of sales.
Steady and as expected.
TSB announces big increases to mortgage rates - as 'market thrown into turmoil'
TSB has followed other major lenders in hiking mortgage rates this week - and theirs are pretty big.
First-time buyer, mover and remortgage rates are going up by as much as 0.45%.
Shared ownership/equity products will rise by up to 0.75%.
The lender is also withdrawing some tracker mortgages - and all house purchase and remortgage products (two and five-year fixed) without a fee.
It follows upward moves from NatWest, Barclays, Accord, Leeds Building Society and HSBC on Monday, and Coventry last week.
They are responding to swap rates - which dictate how much it costs to lend money - rising on the back of higher than expected US inflation data, and concerns this could delay interest rate cuts there.
US trends often materialise elsewhere - though many economists are still expecting a base rate cut from 5.25% to 5% in the UK in June.
If I am right, then it's only good for me. If I am wrong, then it's good for all holders. I am not that selfish. So, I don't mind if I am wrong. LOL 😂😂😂
I hope your wrong :-)
After the strong rally, the market probably will turn. For this reason, I have changed my buy order to 1255 from 1270. Let's see if I am correct or not.
Pandamonia
I would like to read about a rate cut + a stamp duty holiday lol :-)
we dont live in a communist state. there is no control of land values so lowering land values is impossible unless you build on greenbelt.
also wikipedia is bull**** nothing on there is worth reading these days.
Land costs are a significant portion of a house purchase. Lowering that cost will increase demand from those currently renting.
No doubt Help to Buy helped some to buy. There are several expressions of opinion here on the overall market impact of Help to Buy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_to_Buy
There is no proof that help2buy was inflationary. House prices went up after the scheme went to capped lending and first time buyers only.
To think that tiny part of the market can push the price of ALL houses up had no evidence. What was house price inflationary was the zero rates of interest for 13 years. Help2buy did nothing other than help many people buy their first home such as me. Now i have a 4 bed and paid the loan off costing only 8k for 5 years. It should have never been 40% in the south though as that distorts the south versus north but thats different.
Fact is that without help most first time buyers have almost no chance of ever getting out of rented housing. What most ignore is that Help2buy is no different than Parents2buy where the rich mommy and daddy give little matilda a 50k gift to buy their first house.
Fact is that with enough house building the market will balance and there is not enough demand without help for people to get on the ladder on their own.
Sold @£13.07, not a very good price, but managed to make a little profit anyway. Just put my order in to buy them back @£12.7. Now the market is at its highest. When it pulls back PSN probably will fallback as well. Let's see what will happen then.
Londoner,
Excellent post, and I’m in full agreement with you.
The Help to Buy scheme provided a short-term fill-up to house builders and buyers about to enter the market but all the sensible economic commentary was that Help to Buy was largely house price inflationary, and they proved to be correct.
What we need is a Help to Build scheme.
What form might that take? Something that reduced land prices and increased the incentive to develop under utilised land would help. Any ideas? One idea has been around for over 100 years and is viewed by most economists as the fairest form of tax.
A Land value Tax.
Tax an asset and it reduces its value and provides an incentive to maximise the value of the taxed asset. Speculators can sit on land untaxed, while the land value appreciates due to neighbouring and surrounding development, paid for by the community, in one form or another, such speculators can drip feed land into play at their own pace. A Land value Tax accelerates that pace.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657040
Panda,
As you’ve said, a help to buy scheme would likely be required if Labour actually hope to achieve this target (or get close to it).
The govt-backed mortgage scheme and planning reforms should stimulate supply, but I’m not overly excited.
Stevebt, sorry to sound pedantic, but house prices don’t always rise, cash just always falls in value. A war (or a similar crisis) isn’t required for house prices to fall. Without economic stimulus, housing would be much, much cheaper today than it is. The housing market is propped up with an obscene amount of debt, the bank of mom & dad, and blind optimism, and homeowners are typically highly leveraged in other areas of their life (every man and their dog has a car on finance/lease). A fall in employment is all that is required for a serious correction, in my opinion.
The U.K’s economic performance of late and outlook over the next decade does not inspire me with confidence. Most of the skilled and knowledgeable people I know (I’m 30) are looking for a way out, permanently. There’s money to be made with HB stocks, but I don’t think it’s the free lunch it used to be.
As I said previously, I expect housebuilders to recover, eventually, but I think it could be a slow recovery, and I’m not convinced that we’ve seen the worst of it yet.
No mate, shares are always going up and down. Was under water when this went down yesterday morning, but back to blue in the afternoon. I am hoping for more rise on Monday to complete my current trade. But with Isreal and Iran are locking horns in the middle East, the situation isn't favorable at all, probably more likely down than up. Maybe it will be a big down day. So, brace yourselves, everyone, lol.
Its the AGM and a trading update, lets hope for something positive as I could now do with the share rising properly now?
This is their target. "Keir Starmer has pledged to get Britain building again – starting with one and a half million new homes across the country within five years of a Labour government."
That's an average of 300K per year, but from a standing start of 230K built in 2023 (GB), and assuming same again in 2024, a 9% p.a. growth in build numbers would be needed to achieve 1.5m over 5 years. The build in year 5 would be 354K.
I don't see it but it would be great for our society if it happened. It would also help my Breedon shares.
There isn't enough labour to even come close to building 1.5m houses per year.
Lorenzo, House prices will always rise and a correction wont happen without a war, an amreican living solution will be heading to the UK and it will be the rise os people living in caravans that cant afford houses!
Labour are getting in next and they are talking about 1.5m homes being built on brown and some greenbelt. There is no way thats possible without the big builders pumping out houses and the only way that happens is with some kind of help2buy scheme of some sort. It might be a bit stricter than previously but builders build to demand and the demand is there but in order to hit 1.5m there needs to be incentives for buying and building. There is not a single thing a labour government can do to force companies to build more and charge less. That would require law changes to ownership and free markets that even labour couldnt pass so the only way is incentives and lower interest rates.